With September just around the corner—kicking off in less than a week—bitcoin (BTC) is currently down 2.74% as of Aug. 27, 2024. August is typically a quiet month for BTC, so this decline isn’t out of the ordinary. But if history is any guide, September might not offer much relief either, as bitcoin has closed the month in the red eight times out of the last 11 years.

Even during the bullish years of 2013, 2017, and 2021, September was rough for bitcoin. The most challenging September was in 2014 when BTC plummeted by 19.01%. However, there’s a chance that this September could buck the trend. One reason for optimism is the upcoming U.S. election, which is just around the corner.

The 2024 election has woven itself into bitcoin’s bull market cycle this year, with many speculating that the results could influence BTC’s price, for better or worse. Another potential catalyst for a price rebound in September is the possibility of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that month.

A rate cut could boost BTC prices, depending on whether it’s a 25 basis point (bps) or 50bps reduction. Traditionally, October has been a strong month for bitcoin, with prices rising in nine of the past 11 years. October has rewarded traders handsomely, with gains of 60.79% in 2013, 47.81% in 2017, and 39.93% in 2021.

While past trends suggest that September might be challenging for bitcoin, the dynamics of 2024, with factors like the upcoming U.S. election and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, could lead to unexpected outcomes. Market participants will likely stay vigilant, as historical patterns may not necessarily dictate the trajectory of bitcoin’s price in the coming weeks.

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