4 Alpha Researcher: 0xamuel

On the evening of August 14th, Eastern Time, the Democratic Party of the United States held an online town hall meeting "Crypto4Harris" to counter the influence of Donald Trump in the cryptocurrency industry, hoping to garner support from approximately 40 million Americans holding cryptocurrencies for Kamala Harris.

However, it was unexpected that Harris once again missed this event, despite earlier reports that she would personally attend and discuss with entrepreneurs Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital. This was supposed to be Harris's first positive interaction with the crypto community, but unexpectedly, Harris was absent from the event.

At the meeting, Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer stood up for Harris, promising to enact laws supporting cryptocurrencies if Harris is elected president. However, Harris's absence from the event has sparked dissatisfaction among a large audience and raised serious doubts about her stance.

Nevertheless, with the continuous release of news about the event, the possibility of Harris becoming the next U.S. president is still on the rise. According to Polymarket data, before the event was scheduled, Harris's chances of winning were about 40%; after the announcement of the event on August 8th, her chances of winning were tied with Trump's for the first time (49%); with the event on the 14th, Harris's chances of winning further increased to 53% (at the time of writing this article), while Trump's chances were 44%.

At the same time, the price of the meme coin Kamala Horris ($KAMA) associated with Harris has been continuously rising. According to Coingecko data, as of the time of writing, the price of $KAMA has reached $0.0131, an increase of nearly 47% from the low point of $0.0089 on August 4th. Previously, with Biden's withdrawal, $KAMA had soared to $0.038. In comparison, the Trump concept coin MAGA ($TRUMP) has dropped by over 60% from its high point a month ago.

Before Biden explicitly announced his withdrawal, Harris, as Biden's running mate, did not attract much attention. Initially, Trump did not take this opponent seriously and openly emphasized Harris's strong opposition to cryptocurrencies. However, the situation seems to have changed now, with support for Harris growing in both traditional and crypto markets. So, will Harris really be elected? If she becomes the U.S. president, what kind of impact will she have on the crypto market? And how will Trump break the deadlock and turn the tide?

Indifferent Attitude

Unlike Trump's hostile attitude towards cryptocurrencies during his presidency, Harris seems to have maintained a indifferent and conservative attitude towards this emerging field. She has never given enough attention to cryptocurrencies and has even been seen as "not very interested."

First, as the Vice President of the United States, Harris mainly focuses on more traditional macro areas, such as economic recovery, COVID-19 response, environmental issues, and racial equality. From her financial disclosures, Harris and her husband Douglas Emhoff tend to invest in stable, traditional assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds and emerging market stocks. This investment portfolio shows Harris's particular caution in choosing emerging technologies and financial instruments, and she seems more inclined to keep a certain distance from high-risk cryptocurrencies.

Second, despite Harris's previous positions as a senator and state attorney general in California, with some exposure to Silicon Valley's tech giants, this has not translated into her public support or involvement in cryptocurrencies. Even as cryptocurrencies are gaining more attention in Silicon Valley and the entire tech industry, Harris did not express clear views on cryptocurrency policies during her tenure in public office, nor did she actively participate in legislative or regulatory discussions in Congress or other public forums. This silence further demonstrates her cautious attitude in this field.

Furthermore, even during her tenure as Vice President, Harris's stance on cryptocurrency issues has not shown any significant changes. She has neither participated in nor promoted any important cryptocurrency-related policies, nor has she made any official statements supporting or opposing cryptocurrencies. In contrast to her active involvement in areas such as the environment, education, and healthcare, Harris's "absence" in the cryptocurrency field stands out.

Overall, before "officially" running for the next U.S. president, Harris's attitude towards cryptocurrencies can be described as quite "indifferent," perhaps stemming from her caution about the risks and uncertainties in this field. Despite her connection to the tech industry, her investment and policy choices clearly lean towards safety and stability. Compared to Trump, a businessman by background who is willing to take risks, Harris undoubtedly appears more conservative.

"False Transformation"

In order to win the election, Harris seems to be making some changes. Her campaign team recently recruited two advisors with backgrounds in cryptocurrencies: David Plouffe and Gene Sperling. Plouffe was the former campaign manager and senior advisor to former U.S. President Obama. After leaving the White House in 2013, he actively ventured into the cryptocurrency field, serving as a global advisor to Binance and a global strategic advisor to Alchemy Pay. Another advisor, Sperling, has served on Ripple's board and held important economic advisory positions in the Clinton and Obama administrations.

These actions seem to indicate Harris's attention to cryptocurrencies, as she is making efforts to establish connections with the crypto industry. The addition of these two advisors may also provide her with support and assistance in winning the election and formulating cryptocurrency policies. However, does this "surface effort" truly reflect a change in her attitude? The answer seems to be negative.

Previously, there were rumors that Harris would attend and speak at the Bitcoin conference held at the end of July. It was widely known that even after being shot, Trump announced in a high-profile manner that he would attend the conference and indeed expressed his intention to formulate a series of crypto-friendly policies. The crypto market was very much looking forward to how the two candidates would debate at the conference. However, the result was disappointing. David Bailey quickly confirmed that Harris would not attend, and indeed she did not.

Of course, considering that Harris had just been nominated as the presidential candidate and was busy, her failure to attend the conference may be understandable. However, her absence from the virtual roundtable meeting organized by Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna in California subsequently raised widespread doubts in the crypto industry. At the meeting, prominent representatives from the crypto industry, including Ripple executives Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen, and Uniswap CEO Hayden Adams, had a dialogue with Democratic Party officials. As the representative of the Democratic Party, Harris should have attended the meeting. Therefore, Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss publicly questioned the reason for Harris's absence from the meeting on the X platform to express his dissatisfaction.

Perhaps influenced by these factors, the dialogue between crypto representatives and Democratic Party representatives at the roundtable meeting was not smooth. Industry executives failed to reach a consensus with the Democratic Party and instead harshly criticized government officials. Major donors like Conway expressed strong dissatisfaction with the government's hollow promises. This tense relationship shows the differences in policy positions between the crypto industry and the Democratic Party government, and once again deepens the crypto industry's doubts about Harris: does she really value cryptocurrencies?

Stringent Policies May Continue

Now, Harris has once again missed an important event related to cryptocurrencies, which has left everyone feeling very disappointed. However, her approval rating continues to steadily rise. As a member of the crypto industry, we have to consider: what kind of impact will Harris's victory have on the cryptocurrency market?

In my previous article "From Trump to Biden: The Evolution and Impact of U.S. Cryptocurrency Policies," I mentioned that the Biden administration has implemented stricter regulations and tax transparency measures in the crypto market. While these measures have reduced market uncertainty to some extent, they have also sparked concerns and opposition from the crypto community. As a Democratic candidate, Harris may find it difficult to break this established framework in terms of policy.

Jeff Dorman, Chief Investment Officer of Arca, has pointed out that although Trump's election may be more favorable for the cryptocurrency market, Harris's victory may not be as bad as some people fear. He also mentioned that heavyweight figures within the Democratic Party, such as Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, have recently supported some bills favorable to cryptocurrencies, indicating a changing attitude towards cryptocurrencies within the Democratic Party.

However, are these changes sufficient? Alex Thorn, Director of Galaxy Research, pointed out on X that due to Harris's choice of two officials from the Biden administration who are opposed to cryptocurrencies (Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti) to join her team, she may continue Biden's hostile policies.

It is worth noting that Trump has explicitly proposed using Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and even considered using Bitcoin to address the U.S. dollar debt issue. These bold statements are currently unmatched by the Democratic Party. Considering Harris's past actions and the Democratic Party's long-standing stringent policies, I personally find it hard to believe that she would propose lenient policies. Therefore, I have deep concerns about the performance of the cryptocurrency market after Harris becomes president.

Trump: Market Favors Him

As mentioned earlier, Trump's advantage lies in his consistent crypto-friendly stance. From releasing multiple series of NFTs, to hosting a dinner for NFT equity, to bravely attending the Bitcoin conference at the risk of his life, compared to Biden hastily launching his own meme to win favor with the crypto community when he was significantly behind, and Harris's seemingly glamorous moves such as recruiting a crypto team and holding meetings, Trump's performance is undoubtedly more "sincere."

From the perspective of the crypto market, whether it's the relatively lenient policies during Trump's presidency or the recent craze related to Trump's memes, the crypto market clearly leans more towards him.

Furthermore, Trump recently held a Space event on X with crypto industry leader Musk. Although the entire conversation did not mention Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies, Trump's proactive contact with Musk undoubtedly boosted his favorability in the crypto community. This positive move indicates that Trump seems to be trying to consolidate his support in the crypto community and demonstrate his interest and openness in this field.

While we can criticize that these moves and statements from him may just be "pie in the sky" to win votes, compared to the Democratic Party's long-standing stringent policies, the crypto market clearly prefers Trump's "big promises." After all, every time a political event related to Trump is announced, it brings a significant upward trend to the cryptocurrency market. In the face of visible favorable factors, perhaps we don't need to overly expect the elusive and illusory policies of Harris.

Conclusion

Overall, Harris's attitude towards cryptocurrencies seems to still be in a state of exploration. Although she has recently taken some measures to try to improve relations with the crypto community, her actions and statements seem to be contradictory, and her stance is still not clear enough. Personally, compared to Trump, I find it difficult to have enough confidence in Harris at this stage. For the cryptocurrency market, whether Harris's lead can truly bring favorable conditions remains to be seen. As the election campaign progresses, it may be worthwhile to continue monitoring her movements in this field, perhaps clearer signals will emerge.

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