Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

The extent of the market's plunge still exceeds the imagination of most people. After BTC lost the $60,000 mark last night at 10 pm, it plummeted all the way to below $53,000, hitting a low of $52,300, with a drop of over 10% in 24 hours, marking a new low for BTC since March this year. BTC has now stabilized above $54,000.

ETH also dropped below $3,000, hitting a low of $2,111, with a drop of over 20% in 24 hours, and has now stabilized above $2,300. This price almost wiped out all the gains for ETH this year. The overall drop for altcoins is around 20%.

According to Coinglass data, there were liquidations totaling $808 million in the past 24 hours, with long positions liquidated at $705 million. In addition, the night trading of US stock crypto concept stocks saw expanded declines, with CleanSpark dropping over 20%, MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital dropping over 16%, and Coinbase and Riot Platforms dropping over 13%.

After breaking through $70,000 at the end of July, BTC failed to reach a new all-time high. Under the sluggish funds, what factors have accelerated the major plunge in the crypto market?

Non-Farm Data Raises Concerns about US Recession

Last Friday, the unexpectedly low non-farm employment data released by the United States triggered a series of chain reactions on Wall Street. This weak performance of a key economic indicator not only led to a sharp decline in US stocks but also sparked widespread concerns about the US economic outlook. As an important indicator of the health of the US economy, the unexpected performance of non-farm data has caused turbulence in the financial markets. The US unemployment rate has surged by 0.6% from its low point earlier this year, and after several months of consecutive increases beyond expectations, it has finally triggered the "Sam Rule" based on the prediction of a recession based on the unemployment rate.

The rule states that when the 3-month moving average of the US unemployment rate rises by more than 0.5 percentage points relative to the lowest point of the past 12 months, an economic recession may begin. This rule has been 100% accurate since the 1970s. After the July unemployment rate data was released, it has already reached the 0.5% threshold, which means that the US may already be in a state of recession. Out of the 11 signals issued by the Sam recession indicator from 1950 to the present, only the recession in 1960 occurred 5 months later, and the remaining 10 signals occurred when the US was already in a recession.

Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, raised the probability of the US falling into a recession in the next year from 15% to 25% in a report. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, November, and December. In addition, Goldman Sachs stated that if their forecast is wrong and the August employment report is as weak as July's, there is a high possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in September. In comparison, JPMorgan and Citigroup have adjusted their forecasts and expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.

Users in the market who believe in the recession story will choose to sell off their assets because they are not willing to gamble on whether a recession will actually occur, and the withdrawal of funds from the crypto market will have a negative impact.

Global Stock Markets Plunge into Panic

The day after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, US stocks began to plunge. The most direct cause was the ISM manufacturing index for July, which was only 46.8%, lower than market expectations, reflecting the state of US factory activity and widely seen as a signal of economic decline.

Subsequently, the release of the non-farm employment data on Friday further intensified investors' concerns. The July data showed that the US unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021. Combined with the previous day's announcement that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits hit the highest level since August 2023, it shows clear signs of a slowdown in the US job market. US stock futures collectively fell, with Nasdaq 100 index futures down 2.21% and S&P 500 index futures down 1.23%.

Today, the Asian markets were also affected by the US stock market and began to decline. The Japanese stock market plummeted, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 6%, accumulating a total drop of over 12% in three days. The TOPIX index fell, triggering a circuit breaker, falling 20% from its high point in July, and is poised to enter a technical bear market. Banks, financials, and mining stocks led the decline. The KOSPI index in South Korea expanded its decline to 5%, with Samsung's stock price falling by 6%, marking the largest drop since 2020. The Straits Times Index in Singapore expanded its decline to 3%, the S&P/ASX 200 index in Australia fell by 3%, and the Philippine stock index expanded its decline to 2%.

Large-scale Liquidation Accelerates the Decline in the Crypto Market

On June 20, there were rumors in the market that Jump Trading was being investigated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Just 4 days later, Kanav Kariya, the CEO of Jump Crypto, announced on his social media platform that he was stepping down, without explicitly mentioning the reason for his departure. Recently, Jump Trading redeemed a batch of wstETH worth $4.1 billion (120,000 tokens) into ETH and then transferred it to trading platforms such as Binance and OKX. In the past 24 hours, Jump Trading has again transferred 17,576 ETH (approximately $46.78 million) to CEX. According to Scopescan monitoring, Jump's positions are currently dominated by USDC and USDT.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently stated on social media that through traditional financial channels, he learned that a "big player" had fallen and sold all their crypto assets. This so-called "big player" is highly likely to be Jump Trading.

In addition, due to severe selling pressure causing continuous downward price movements, there have been multiple large liquidations and on-chain liquidation events today. In the morning, four whales were forced to liquidate their leveraged positions due to the rapid decline in the market, totaling 14,653 ETH, worth approximately $33.54 million. According to Parsec data, in the past 24 hours, the amount of DeFi loan liquidations exceeded $320 million, reaching a new high for the year.

Centralized exchanges also reported large liquidations, with a Binance user liquidating a long position worth $10.9074 million at an Ethereum price of $2,197 at 10:17 am today, with the contract trading pair being ETH/USDC.

As the market continues to liquidate leverage, it also increases selling pressure, leading to a sharp decline in the crypto market.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。