On July 7, 2024, we asked several chatbots for their projections on bitcoin’s price by the end of 2024, specifically Dec. 31, 2024. Since our last experiment on April 29, several developments have occurred, such as the German government transferring thousands of bitcoins to exchanges. Additionally, the Mt Gox distribution is imminent, and the U.S. election is approaching in November. We incorporated these factors into the prompt posed to the AI chatbots.

The nine chatbots consulted included Google’s Gemini, Anthropic’s Claude 3 Sonnet, Venice.ai, Openai’s Chatgpt 3.5, 4o, and 4, Inflection AI’s Pi, Microsoft’s Co-pilot (creative mode) and Mistral AI’s Le Chat.

The question was:

This experiment seeks to forecast bitcoin’s value by the end of 2024. As a specialist in bitcoin and crypto assets, you are to assess the probability of bitcoin’s price at year-end and provide a brief 3-4-sentence rationale for your prediction. The global macroeconomic situation remains unpredictable. As of July 7, 2024, bitcoin trades at $57,200 per unit. Bitcoin is currently influenced by the German government and Mt Gox releasing substantial amounts of BTC back into circulation. The 2024 U.S. presidential election, set for November, sees Trump leading in polls and prediction markets against incumbent Joe Biden. The block reward halving occurred on April 19, 2024, cutting the subsidy from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Miners are experiencing decreased revenues and have recently liquidated some reserves. You must provide a dollar amount prediction. In your expert view, what will be the price of bitcoin on Dec. 31, 2024?

Chatgpt 3.5 answer:

Given the current factors influencing Bitcoin’s price, including regulatory developments, market supply dynamics due to Mt Gox and mining activity post-halving, and the upcoming U.S. presidential election, the forecast for Bitcoin’s price by December 31, 2024, is challenging. However, considering the halving effect on supply and potential macroeconomic uncertainties, I anticipate Bitcoin’s price could range between $50,000 and $70,000 by year-end. This range reflects the volatility and speculative nature of cryptocurrency markets, where external events can significantly impact price movements.

Co-pilot (creative mode) answer:

Screenshot of Co-pilot’s answer.

Chatgpt 4 answer:

While precise predictions are speculative, a potential increase in price by year-end is plausible, assuming macroeconomic conditions favor cryptocurrencies as a safe haven. Therefore, a conservative estimate might place bitcoin around $60,000 to $65,000 by December 31, 2024, considering the possibility of increased demand against a backdrop of reduced supply post-halving and economic uncertainty.

Venice.ai’s answer:

Screenshot of Vence.ai’s answer.

Le Chat’s answer:

Given the current bitcoin price of $57,200 and the unpredictable global macroeconomic situation, I forecast that the price of bitcoin will reach $75,000 by the end of 2024. The influx of BTC from the German government and Mt Gox could initially create downward pressure, but the decreasing block reward and potential for increased institutional adoption will likely offset this. The 2024 U.S. presidential election could introduce volatility, but if Trump maintains his lead and continues his historically pro-business stance, it could drive further investment in crypto assets. However, the decreased miner revenues and liquidation of reserves present a potential risk to this forecasted price.

Chatgpt 4o answer:

Screenshot of Chatgpt 4o’s answer.

Pi AI’s answer:

By the end of 2024, it’s likely that bitcoin will stabilize around $62,000 per unit. Factors contributing to this prediction include the German government’s influx of BTC into the market, which may weigh down the price in the short term. The 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Trump leading the polls, is likely to create some market uncertainty as well. However, the long-term value proposition of bitcoin should provide a floor for the price.

Bard’s answer:

Overall, the positive factors of the block reward halving outweigh the short-term negative factors of miner capitulation and Mt Gox/German government sales. However, the US election uncertainty makes a precise prediction difficult. My expert prediction: Bitcoin’s price on Dec. 31, 2024 will be around $72,500. This reflects a modest price increase by year-end, but not exceeding the pre-halving price.

Claude 3 Sonnet’s answer:

A reasonable estimate for bitcoin’s price on December 31, 2024, could be around $65,000. This prediction takes into account the recent halving event, which historically has led to price increases in the medium term. The potential for a Trump victory in the U.S. election could create market uncertainty, potentially driving investors towards Bitcoin as a hedge. However, the increased supply from German government and Mt Gox releases may temper price growth.

In this round, the generative AI chatbots were more reserved compared to their predictions right after the fourth halving event. Most forecasts ranged conservatively between $50,000 and $70,000, with the newly launched Venice.ai offering the most optimistic outlook. The experimental outcomes from various AI chatbots yield interesting, albeit speculative insights. These predictions, which vary considerably due to significant economic and geopolitical influences, highlight the prevailing uncertainty in the global economy humans are facing.

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