As investors continue to digest new inflation data and the Fed's dot plot, the cryptocurrency market is showing volatile trends.
According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin bulls attempted to push higher in early trading but faced resistance at $68,484, with bearish momentum taking over after midday, causing BTC to briefly drop to an intraday low of $66,206. At the time of writing, the trading price of Bitcoin is $66,844, marking a 2.5% decrease over 24 hours.
Altcoins have suffered heavy losses, with tokens ranking in the top 200 by market capitalization experiencing more declines than gains.
The previous day's biggest gainer, Io.net (IO), saw the largest decline on Thursday, dropping by 19.1%, followed closely by CurveDAO Token (CRV) with a 19% decrease, and Arweave (AR) with a 13.4% drop. Among the few tokens that saw gains, Aelf (ELF) led with a 7% increase, followed by SKALE (SKL) with a 6.5% rise, and Toncoin (TON) with a 4.1% increase.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is currently $2.42 trillion, with Bitcoin's market dominance at 54.2%.
In the US stock market, as of the day's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average initially fell by 0.17%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.3%, with the latter two setting new closing highs for the fourth consecutive trading day. Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose by 3.5%, Apple (AAPL.O) by 0.5%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) by 2.9%.
The Producer Price Index for May, released on Thursday, showed a 0.2% month-on-month decrease following a 0.5% increase in April, indicating a moderation in inflation and providing more reasons for investors to anticipate a rate cut in September. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Fed Watch tool currently shows a 68.5% probability of a rate cut, up from 65% yesterday.
Market Needs New Narrative to Stimulate Demand
Analyst Skew analyzed the current buy and sell orders on the X platform.
In terms of BTC spot liquidity, there is bid depth between $66,000 and $65,000, but the market needs to find trading demand to support the price at $66,000. There is significant ask depth near $70,000 and higher prices, indicating the market may need a new narrative to stimulate demand.
Looking at BTC perpetual contracts, the Perp order book is quite active, with a significant amount of low liquidity buy orders, typically a combination of actual demand and a large number of short positions seeking to close.
Comparing BTC Binance Perp and Bybit Perp, the perpetual contract market shows a clear hedging pattern, with shorts currently favored. However, the good news is that the funding rate is low and the spot premium continues for a longer period, indicating that the bubble is leaving the market.
An analyst from Secure Digital Markets stated, "With the US stock market hitting historic highs, it is expected that Bitcoin may soon follow suit. However, we should be prepared for short-term resistance around $70,000, with even greater resistance at $72,000."
$100,000 Bitcoin is Only a Matter of Time
Despite Bitcoin's price trend being in a consolidation phase since late February, many analysts believe that the resumption of the upward trend is only a matter of time, with most predicting that Bitcoin will eventually surpass $100,000 during this bull market cycle.
Analyst and mathematician Fred Krüeger stated on his podcast, "In theory, by the end of this year, the price of Bitcoin should be close to $100,000, and it may even reach $90,000. However, Bitcoin's price could be two standard deviations higher than these levels, which would bring our price for this year to around $200,000, or even $400,000."
He added, "If we look another year ahead, by 2025, we could be looking at a trend line of $140,000, and if we can exceed this number by one or two standard deviations, we could reach $600,000, which would be a significant move."
Krüeger stated that he believes "it is indeed possible for us to see a high of around $500,000 to $600,000 in this cycle."
Market analyst CryptoCon has slightly lower bullish sentiment for the top of the market cycle, giving a "3rd level" target price of $91,539 and a cycle top target of $123,832, but he noted that the cycle top target is rising.
Analyst Rekt Capital explained on the X platform why a sideways price trend is actually a good thing.
He wrote on Twitter, "The fact that Bitcoin is struggling to break out is beneficial for the entire cycle. Bitcoin has never broken out this early after a halving. If a breakout does occur, the cycle will accelerate to a degree shorter than usual."
Rekt Capital stated, "This sustained consolidation allows the price to realign with historical halving cycles, allowing us to experience a normal bull market. Bitcoin has been consolidating within this re-accumulation range for three months. History suggests this situation may continue for another three months. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the price falls back from the upper resistance of the range."
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