Author: Taolao Xiaoli
Recently, with the holding of the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting, a picture has been circulating on WeChat Moments:
In the past 20 years, the investment performance of the stock god Buffett is 554%, which is lower than the 568% of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 consists of the top 500 listed companies in the United States, accounting for about 80% of the total market value of the U.S. stock market, also known as "Beta."
The truth about investment is always cruel. The vast majority of extremely intelligent investment managers spend their entire lives pursuing Alpha (excess returns), only to find that they cannot outperform the market Beta. For most investors, it is better to start by lying flat, invest in index funds, and passively accumulate wealth.
Returning to the cryptocurrency market, how many assets have outperformed Bitcoin? How many diligent traders and top fund managers have ultimately outperformed Bitcoin?
As far as I know, there are very few.
A friend scrimped and saved during the bear market, and finally accumulated 3 bitcoins by the end of 2023, but now he only has 0.5 bitcoins…
The reason is simple. Like many others, he thought the market value of Bitcoin was too high and not an opportunity for ordinary people. Even if it doubles, it won't change much. He needs to take risks for greater returns. So he went all in on various altcoins with most of his bitcoins, and then naturally lost his bitcoins, ending up with a handful of altcoins and becoming someone else's liquidity provider.
The same story also happened with Solana. SOL is the deterministic big Beta of this cycle, but like Bitcoin, its market value is too high and lacks the temptation of a 10x return, far less attractive than various meme coins. As a result, various investors couldn't bear the loneliness and exchanged their cherished SOL for various meme coins, only to find that they could no longer exchange them back for an equivalent value of SOL.
One's success is built on the bones of thousands, and behind a hundredfold performance is the lament of a group of small retail investors.
During the crazy bull market, most people are always overly optimistic, thinking they are investment geniuses who can capture super Alpha within this cycle and achieve class leaps. When the tide recedes, they realize that the person in the mirror is just an ordinary person who constantly oscillates between arrogance and inferiority. For ordinary people, don't easily give up the BETA in your hands.
Investment is like this, and so is love.
Many women/men are not satisfied with their current boyfriends/girlfriends, always feeling that they can find someone better, only to realize in the end that what they once had may have been the best.
Just like in "Finding Mr. Right," Xiaolu once despised Ma Dongmei and thought Qiuya was the perfect goddess. Does Xiaolu really like Qiuya? Not necessarily. It may just be an obsession with something unattainable.
When Xiaolu is truly with Qiuya, he realizes that Qiuya is not as good as he imagined. He only loves an idealized person.
In the end, the time-traveling Xiaolu sees the truth and chooses to cherish the person in front of him. But outside of the movie, most people do not have the chance to make a new choice, just like how a pile of junk altcoins in hand can no longer be exchanged back for the once-held bitcoins.
So, don't lose the person who treats you well from the beginning, and don't lose your bitcoins.
Understand yourself and learn to be content.
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