Today's increase is mainly due to the softening of employment data and a 0.2% wage rate, which has led to market expectations of a rate cut - this is actually a kind of emotional change. This emotional fluctuation will still need to be corrected, as I still hold the view that there will be a rate cut once this year or even no rate cut at all - for specific analysis, please refer to the pinned article. I don't think there has been any significant change compared to a week ago.

In addition, just listen to what JP, who looks like an honest scholar, has to say. To get back to the essence, what are the purposes of JP and Yellen:

Purpose 1: Inflation must be clearly able to decrease before a rate cut can be made, otherwise the credibility of the US dollar is not guaranteed. If the US dollar fails under JP's control, he will be the eternal sinner of the United States.

Purpose 2: However, the sale of government bonds must continue, so appropriate dovishness, combined with a little QE, can bring down government bond yields. I previously mentioned that I would intervene when the rate reached 5%, but it seems that intervention has started before reaching 5%. Of course, it's also a matter of timing, and it may be too late to intervene until the next FOMC meeting.

Purpose 3: As for the assumption of a financial war, I don't think it's a priority… JP has enough on his plate and may not be able to handle so much. If the data is all fabricated, this is a huge process that is very prone to errors.

Inference and conclusion:

Rate cut expectations will gradually be shattered. JP will be like a tease, clearly unable to cut rates but still keeping you hanging.

The main management tools are: quantity tools + verbal dovishness.

My optimism for May and June is still based on liquidity, the combination of QT and TGA, releasing some liquidity.

Let's talk about July later, mainly to see if there have been any changes in the quantity tools.

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