Author | Protos

Compiled by | Wu Shuo Blockchain

While some people celebrate SBF's final sentencing to 25 years in prison for a multi-billion dollar fraud, others believe that the punishment is too severe for a non-violent first offender.

Regardless of how you view it, it is certain that almost everyone involved breathed a sigh of relief when the crypto trial of the century finally came to a close.

However, this verdict comes with some additional conditions and opportunities that are worth exploring for what might happen next.

Appeal

SBF has made it clear that he not only believes the appeal process will grant him freedom, but he is also willing to sacrifice his comfort and safety for it. As pointed out by Protos contributor David Z. Morris on X, SBF has requested to remain in the notorious Metropolitan Detention Center in New York to be closer to his legal team, rather than being transferred to a prison in California closer to his parents.

This strategy is a bold choice: according to the federal judiciary, the success rate of appeals in federal courts is less than 9%. But this has not deterred SBF.

A lawyer familiar with the case said, "The likelihood of success in this appeal is zero," adding, "His trial was not improper, and his sentence was mitigated."

Regarding the content the appeal team hopes to present, the lawyer stated that the legal team may focus on pointing out that internet restrictions did not allow sufficient time for pre-trial preparation, but "this will be rejected."

SBF's bail has been revoked, and the release of Caroline Ellison's diary to the media, as well as increased internet access in prison, have increased the likelihood of the appeal being rejected.

The lawyer stated, "Appellate courts almost never overturn a jury's verdict."

After the Initial Appeal

For SBF, the legal maneuvering room is small. In the coming years, he may present specific arguments, but the likelihood of these arguments being legally viable is extremely low.

In the meantime, it is worth noting that SBF has already spent nearly a year in prison—this time will be credited towards his sentence, reducing his 25-year term by approximately nine months. Additionally, as mentioned by CNN, he may only need to serve half of his sentence in prison. The remaining time is likely to be spent in a halfway house or with relatives.

As many who followed the case understood before the verdict, violent federal offenders cannot reduce their sentence by more than 15% through good behavior, but a law passed by Trump in 2018—the "First Step Act"—allows non-violent federal offenders to be released after serving half of their sentence.

SBF is very likely to meet this condition.

What Awaits SBF?

Fairly speaking, any time spent in a federal prison is difficult, but if SBF refrains from improper media interviews, sneaking electronic devices into his cell, and behaves normally, he will spend over a decade in a medium-security level prison.

Regardless, once SBF leaves the medium-security level prison and returns to his parents' home in Stanford, he will still be responsible for the $11 billion owed to FTX's clients, creditors, and investors. His bank accounts, electronic devices, and future plans will certainly be regularly monitored by federal agents, and many will be looking for opportunities to catch him violating the terms of his supervised release.

A story of redemption is always possible. Take Jordan Belfort and Michael Milkin, for example—both former criminal fraudsters who achieved considerable success after their release from prison.

Of course, there is no doubt that when SBF leaves prison, he will have some market for speaking engagements, book deals, and consulting to some extent. The real question is whether every penny he earns (excluding basic living expenses) will be recovered to compensate those he has harmed, and whether SBF's story will still be as toxic and difficult to accept as it was a decade ago, especially for those in the financial and cryptocurrency industry.

Justice is hard to define, but at least for now, the founder and CEO of one of the largest fraud cases in history is still in prison, facing over a decade of harsh living conditions, contemplating everything he has done.

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