As the halving approaches, Bitcoin started the week strong, surging to over $72,000 in early Monday trading, less than 3% away from the all-time high of $73,750. Market data shows that after trading near $69,400 over the weekend, Bitcoin bulls started to rise in the early hours of Monday, breaking through the $71,000 resistance level and reaching a high of $72,780 shortly after 8 a.m. Eastern Time. At the time of writing, the trading price of Bitcoin is $71,845, with a 3.5% increase in the past 24 hours.

Other tokens that rose on Monday include Ethereum (up 8%), meme coins Dogwifhat (up 18%), and Pepe (up 10%).

Coinshares' data released on Monday shows that digital asset investment products recorded a $646 million inflow last week. Bitcoin-related investment products remain the focus, with a total inflow of $663 million, while investment products shorting Bitcoin saw a continuous outflow of $9.5 million for the third consecutive week, indicating a slight surrender by bearish investors.

James Butterfill, Coinshares' research director, stated, "The inflow of funds so far this year has reached a historical high of $13.8 billion, far exceeding the $10.6 billion in 2021."

On-chain analysis company Santiment believes that ETF trading activity remains at a relatively active level. The company's analysts stated, "Bitcoin ETF trading volume has not slowed down after four weeks of rising to new highs for BTC. Trading activity remains significantly higher than the turning point when retail trading began to surge at the end of February in GBTC, IBIT, FBTC, ARKB, BTCO, BITB, and HODL."

They added, "Before the halving on April 19, high activity is expected to continue, but it will be interesting to see whether ETF trading volume and on-chain trading volume will directly decrease after the halving."

Stablecoin activity indicates bulls are preparing for a rebound

Markus Thielen, research director at 10x Research, stated that although the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating since early March, it may soon resume its climb.

In Monday's market update, the analyst stated, "After a significant bullish trend since January 25, we became cautious a month ago (March 8) because based on the market's technical setup, future returns seemed unpredictable. Cryptocurrency trading is about risk and return, and knowing when to increase/decrease bets. The past thirty days have indeed been a period of decreasing bets. But this situation will change soon."

Thielen pointed out, "Bitcoin has been trading in a symmetrical triangle pattern for the past month, and according to some historical analysis, 75% of triangle patterns will see a continuation pattern and higher prices (in a bull market)."

Thielen stated that stablecoin trading volume can better predict future conditions, rather than just focusing on ETF flows or futures data.

He said, "In the past 30 days, we have seen approximately $5 billion in net inflows into ETFs, but more importantly, Tether has seen a net inflow of $6.9 billion, and Circle has minted around $3 billion, totaling $10 billion in new funds entering through stablecoins. While the flow of Bitcoin ETFs has attracted media attention, stablecoin minting is twice that of ETFs and may only be bullish. We suggest reducing the focus on Bitcoin ETF flows and paying attention to stablecoin issuers, which will drive this market higher."

Thielen concluded, "Although we have expressed concerns about weak ETF flows, the baton has been passed to stablecoins. Tether has recorded a signal of $2.4 billion in minting over 7 days, one of the highest records since the start of this bull market. Fiat money is accelerating into the cryptocurrency space, and with the symmetrical triangle breakout imminent, we expect a bullish trend."

Thielen's analysis indicates that based on the current pattern, if there is a bullish breakout on April 18, Bitcoin may climb to over $80,000 in the coming weeks, and buying at $69,280 and setting a stop loss at $65,000 seems "appropriate."

Many cryptocurrency traders expect the Bitcoin halving event to be a key moment in 2024, with significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. However, analysts at Steno Research expect it to be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event. Steno Research predicts that the value of BTC will soar before the halving event. However, within the first 90 days after the halving, its value may "fall below the price at the time of halving."

According to data provided by Alternative, with only 11 days left until the Bitcoin halving, sentiment in the cryptocurrency ecosystem remains in the "extreme greed" territory. The overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently $2.69 trillion, with Bitcoin's dominance rate at 52.4%.

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