In yesterday's article introducing Degen, I quoted a segment of data on the token's price trend. According to the data on Coingecko, the token has surged over 1000 times in price from its launch on January 15th this year until yesterday, making it a solid "thousandfold coin."

This reminded me of the topic we often discussed in the past, the "hundredfold coin."

I remember sharing some judgments on "hundredfold coins" in an article around either the previous year or the year before. One of them was: if we refer to cases from the previous bull market (such as YFI), it's very likely that the future "hundredfold coins" (at that time) haven't even appeared yet.

The example of Degen now truly proves this point.

If we carefully study its background and examine its price trend, we will find some interesting phenomena.

It was launched on January 15th this year, and its concept originated from a decentralized social application that seems to be quite popular now (farcaster.xyz) in a channel called Degen, and the token was issued on the Base chain, a second-layer extension of Ethereum.

So, it would have been best if we were lucky enough to catch it from the beginning.

Let's rewind time and go back to that period, to see what we were thinking and focusing on at that moment, and whether we could have paid attention to it at that time.

Coincidentally, we had a Twitter exchange a few days before Degen's launch (January 6th). I summarized the questions that readers were most concerned about during that exchange, and they basically fell into the following categories:

• The development and future prospects of BTC Layer 2
• Bitcoin NFT ecology and potential projects
• The current status and future of Bitcoin asset ecology (including ARC, runes, BRC420, etc.)
• Whether the "golden shovel" in the Bitcoin ecosystem (such as Bounce, Turt, etc.) has potential in the future
• Whether there will be a bull market in the first half of the year
• Opportunities for Ethereum's second-layer extensions (such as Starknet)
• The current status of Ethereum's gaming ecology (such as Magic, Bigtime)

Do you see it? None of these questions are about decentralized social issues, and [none of them mention farcaster.xyz](http://none of them mention farcaster.xyz), the Degen channel, or Base.

At that time, I was aware of farcaster.xyz, but even now I haven't used it.

Why?

Because it's not user-friendly for me. It only has a mobile version and no desktop or browser version, and I don't like to perform various operations on my phone. Also, registering an account requires a fee, and the key point is that the fee can only be paid using traditional payment methods.

These two points are very troublesome for me. Especially the payment method, it doesn't seem like a Web 3 application no matter how you look at it.

So, I find it hard to imagine that I would have used this application at that time.

At that time, I also knew about Base, but in my opinion, Base at that time didn't have any outstanding features compared to other second-layer extensions. I only knew of a relatively famous DEX in its ecosystem, so I couldn't have paid attention to this token.

I guess many readers might have had a similar situation as me.

Let's take a look at its price trend:

According to the data on Coingecko, I divided it into four stages.

Stage One: January 15th to January 29th, its price rose from $0.000023 to $0.0003, an increase of over 9 times.

Stage Two: January 29th to February 24th, during this period, its price surged from $0.0003 to a peak of $0.005, then dropped back to $0.0008. In other words, it increased by over 10 times, but then experienced a pullback of over 80%.

Stage Three: February 24th to March 14th, during this period, it rose from $0.0008 to $0.003, but later fell back to $0.0017. In other words, it nearly tripled, but still didn't allow users who bought at $0.005 to break even, followed by a nearly 50% drop.

Stage Four: From March 14th until April 1st, it began a vigorous surge, rising from $0.0017 to $0.06, an increase of over 34 times.

In the first stage, I estimate that many investors, even if they were lucky enough to buy it, would not have been able to resist the temptation of a 9-fold return and would have taken profits.

In the second stage, I estimate that many investors might not have been able to endure the significant pullback and would have cut their losses.

In the third stage, I estimate that investors who didn't exit in the second stage would have seen another major drop and would have reluctantly cut their losses. Even those who were lucky enough to buy in this stage would have had difficulty enduring a 50% pullback and would have cut their losses.

It wasn't until the fourth stage that it saw the largest increase in price and the strongest expansion of its influence, and it was probably the stage with the most investors entering.

Let's ask ourselves, even if we were lucky enough to buy it in any of the stages, could we endure the multiple sharp declines and temptations throughout this process and hold on until the final harvest?

So far, Degen has risen over 1000 times. If we continue to analyze its growth process to decide whether to buy it now, it's not very meaningful. What's more valuable is what experience and lessons we can learn from it.

From Degen's thousandfold journey, we can see that to find a hundredfold coin and gain "hundredfold" returns, we can try the following two points:

First: Pay attention to new projects.

Second: When we decide to invest in a project and hope to gain high returns, we must be able to endure the impact of sharp declines, withstand the risk of going to zero, resist the small temptations throughout the process, and only then can we possibly reap big rewards.

The first point has a high element of luck and depends on individual insight, so not everyone can do it. However, the second point is something everyone can do as long as we control the risk and use funds that we can afford to lose, and endure the torment of human nature throughout the process.

This is why in several of my past exchanges and articles, I have frequently expressed the following viewpoint:

In a bear market, after we have used some small positions that can be completely sacrificed to speculate on projects that may generate high returns, as long as the project team is sound, we might as well hold onto it, completely ignoring the sharp declines and small increases during the process, unless its increase has already met our expectations. Only then should we consider cashing out in the later stages of the bull market.

This is something we don't need luck for and something everyone can do.

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