Let's take a look at the predictions and outlooks of major institutions at the beginning of the year, including a16z, Coinbase, Messari, Hashed, Matrixport, Spartan, Binance, Delphi Digital, Pantera, etc.
Narrative keywords: Bitcoin returning to dominance and the wave of the ecosystem
Narrative keywords: Continuous integration and collision of AI with Web3 ecosystem
Narrative keywords: Enormous potential for the development of DePIN track
Narrative keywords: Tokenized RWA will become an important part of the new market cycle
Narrative keywords: Increased attention to SocialFi and Web3 social applications
Narrative keywords: Decentralized Science (Desci) becoming a strong use case
Narrative keywords: Transition of the GameFi field to Play-and-Earn, with NFTs becoming brand assets
Let's also take a look at the Binance Research Institute's annual report, which outlines 8 major focus areas for 2024:
Bitcoin ecosystem, Ownership economy, AI, RWA, on-chain liquidity, institutional entry, security, account abstraction.
From these tracks, it's clear that the hot sectors are AI and MEME, while RWA is in a slightly less popular state, the big cake ecosystem is still brewing, and other less popular tracks require further observation.
What's next for BTC?
As observed, Bitcoin is moving perfectly within the aforementioned horizontal range. Some people fail to grasp the big picture and fail to realize that a 20% price fluctuation within a large market cap is normal, and even beneficial, as BTC is preparing for the next significant surge, which will take us past $80,000 and quickly reach $100,000.
In trading terms, we call this bullish sideways movement an accumulation zone, where profit-taking funds, investment inflows, and hesitant funds converge, leading to consolidation within the medium-term timeframe. As mentioned earlier, this sideways trend is bullish, and we are ready for a significant surge. Currently, BTC is establishing strong support above the 2021 high of $62,500.
Bitcoin has touched ATH on the chart, but in terms of actual market value in USD, it has not reached ATH: in fact, with inflation rising continuously from the 2021 high, according to the current inflation rate, BTC needs to exceed $78,000 to fully enter the ATH area.
More precisely, due to inflation, $78,000 is equivalent to the 2021 $69,000 ATH. Looking at the market from a broader perspective, the trend of ATH against the US dollar is like this, but the value of ATH against the US dollar is still lower than ATH. What does this mean? Is this good news or bad news? This is indeed very good news because it confirms a larger growth potential.
Please remember that we are currently at the lowest level of BTC supply on exchanges. We only have 1.7 million BTC on exchanges, and this is rapidly decreasing, which is very optimistic because demand is still high while supply is decreasing, resulting in a large amount of Bitcoin being sold off.
There will be a supply shock in the coming months, especially with the halving in two weeks.
Keep an eye on the CME gap area, including the liquidity marked on the chart. If the market retraces to the target range of $60,000-$64,000, I will add more altcoins in these areas, which is a good entry point for BTC.
Bitcoin Ecosystem in January
In January, the Bitcoin ecosystem saw $STX and $RIF taking the lead, breaking historical highs. Of note, the launch of more Bitcoin scaling solutions, such as Stacks' sBTC, will be an interesting development, helping to enhance Bitcoin's functionality. So, STX is very strong, which also aligns with Binance Research Institute's expectations. However, the inscriptions are still weak, and ordi and sats are not outperforming the market, with rats still not listed on Binance spot.
On the other hand, in the runic aspect, two major airdrop projects dominated the NFT collection, with RSIC and RUNESTONE performing well.
Before and after the halving in April, we predicted that runic and inscriptions would compete successively. Additionally, new opportunities will arise for RGB++ and RGB.
Crypto evaluation: There was a brief outbreak, but not a comprehensive one. Keep an eye on the dynamics of unisat, the five-character inscriptions, and the RGB track.
Related tokens: stx, rif, ordi, sats
DePin
Secondly, two noteworthy areas in the ownership economy application are decentralized physical network infrastructure (DePin) and decentralized social media (DeSoc).
We can see that the secondary aspect #depin did not explode, but the primary projects received a lot of attention, such as io.net and grass.
We believe that DePin is about to explode, possibly in April and beyond, as BN is about to launch multiple DePin projects.
DePIN Ecosystem
DePIN = Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network, and here are some projects worth paying attention to.
Storage ecosystem: $FIL, $AR, $SIA, $STORJ
Wireless network: $HNT, $HONEY
Decentralized databases: $GRT, Space and Time
Our recommendations: iotx, diom, rsr
Desoc
Desoc has not exploded, and here are the listed DeSoc tracks:
- Farcaster, led by A16z (most popular)
- Lens Protocol, AAVE team, not yet launched
- DeSo, social L1, launched
- Nostr, Bitcoin community payment social, not launched
- Tako Protocol, social infrastructure
- CYBER, social graph protocol
Crypto evaluation: So, there is a possibility of a secondary explosion in these two tracks. Currently, the most popular project in the social track is Farcaster.
Integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasing
The AI track is the first track to continue to explode, led by WLD. Projects like fet, agix, and others have broken previous highs. ARKM, an Ultraman investment project, has also received a lot of attention, and the dark horse public chain near has surged all the way with the AI concept, with the NAER team even presenting at the NVIDIA conference.
Crypto evaluation: The AI track has received tremendous attention and success, and we believe that more AI projects will continue to stand out in the future. Additionally, AI projects are gradually increasing in Binance's investments.
The fourth major sector, RWA
Currently, it is experiencing a surge. Although the leader ondo has not yet been listed on Binance spot, we believe it will be listed soon. The performance of other projects like polyx and tru is also good. Binance and BlackRock have long been involved in the RWA track.
Flourishing landscape of on-chain liquidity
Binance's prediction hit the mark halfway. Due to the staking and restaking frenzy on the Ethereum chain, many have staked, leading to a lack of liquidity in the Ethereum ecosystem, resulting in poor performance this year!
On the other hand, the SOL ecosystem has seen a major surge, with bome pioneering a new fundraising model, requiring only leaving an address on Twitter, and many projects and KOLs following suit. BAKE raised $320 million. This carries significant risk, so participation in presales should be cautious.
MEME is popular on the SOL chain, with good liquidity in the pools, and bome was listed on Binance in just three days. The next project we believe will be listed is sloth $slerf (only if the issue with presale users is resolved).
Accelerated adoption by institutions
Prestigious traditional asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity entering the crypto space demonstrate their confidence in the industry's long-term potential. ETF approval makes it easier for institutions to enter. Security remains crucial, and Binance has also invested in several security track projects, such as Goplus.
Account abstraction becomes more important
After the completion of the Constantinople upgrade, the next Ethereum upgrade to watch is the Prague upgrade. After the Constantinople upgrade is implemented, the narrative will shift to abstract account wallets and the like, as well as EIP: 7002, 6110, 2537. The main targets are bico and safe.
In April, safe will also be listed, with a valuation reaching $20 billion.
Finally, we want to emphasize that many people will place more hope and enthusiasm for getting rich quickly in memes or fair launches. Currently, as long as someone innovates a new fair launch model, they will be favored by the market.
Once again, we will only seize the opportunity when the market allows it. The super cycle is only a matter of time, and it will only happen when market makers are ready for it. My medium to long-term target is much higher than $100,000, and will reach $1.7-2 million by mid-2025. In fact, this is the super cycle I have been talking about for weeks. All that is needed is patience. We wait for the market makers to pull the trigger. This situation can happen at any time from now, so be prepared, because once it happens, we will rise rapidly.
END
Finally, we caution everyone that the bull market involves both sharp rises and steep falls, unlike the slow declines of a bear market. Blindly following the bull market can lead to greater losses. The risks in a bull market are greater, and choosing the wrong altcoins can leave you empty-handed throughout the entire bull market, and even when the big cake retraces, you not only miss out but also lose money. When the big cake rises again, your assets remain unchanged, and when the big cake retraces again, your junk altcoins are halved again. Bewildered retail investors are just fuel in a bull market…
Many users will be confused in a bull market, and the frequent sharp rises and falls are not as grinding as the declines in a bear market. It is the high frequency of sharp rises that makes crypto users more susceptible to risk and more likely to incur losses. Frequent repositioning and missing the entire bull market become fuel for others.
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