The significant feature of a bull market is that there will be at least two to three major mid-term adjustments throughout the process, and after each adjustment, the market will continue to surge forward.
As for how deep each decline will be, theoretically no one can predict. K-line technical logic can be used to refer to the golden ratio and wave theory for prediction and analysis.
This time, the decline of BTC can be well interpreted using FIB and wave theory: Bitcoin this time is retracing the 4th wave, and the retracement of the previous wave's 2nd wave touched the 618 line, which stopped the decline and rebounded. This time it is about to touch the 618 line at 60688U, and from the current trend, it seems to have stabilized and the retracement has ended. A bolder analysis: the target is around 84500U.
Trading is also a game of value and emotion, essentially unpredictable, a secondary factor, but by focusing on the main contradictions and ignoring the secondary factors, we can help make trading decisions.
The main contradiction now is, if you, like me, firmly believe that the real bull market frenzy is still ahead, and now is just the appetizer, then it is best to release the bullets in batches; Remember, the decline at this stage is definitely a good thing, and here are three levels of explanation:
Bringing in fresh blood: The decline is a feedback of market supply and demand, indicating that the upward momentum driven by BTC in the previous stage has weakened, with too many profit-takers, and it needs fresh blood to enter, as well as clear leverage and those with weak wills. However, the best way to attract fresh blood is through a surge after a rise, so when one stage reaches the top of the cycle, MeMe will emerge, with BTC playing the role of rising, and MeMe playing the role of a surge, so it makes sense that MeMe has been so crazy recently.
Decline is for a better rise: The significant feature of a bull market is that there will be at least two to three major mid-term adjustments throughout the process, and after each adjustment, the market will continue to surge forward. Falling down for reorganization or shaking down can make some unsteady people lose their chips and redistribute wealth. Unless it is the last decline, the previous declines are all for a better rise, and then each rise will be higher than the last. So in a bull market, do not judge the short term, only judge the emotional value peak and compare it with historical data, and think about the escape strategy every day.
Getting more chips: The essence of finance is not the disappearance of money, but the transfer of money. Why does it fall? Because it needs to get more chips, it needs more market participation to enter, so the next round can break the 100,000 mark. Why does it rise? Once enough chips are obtained, a rally will be launched. As for what good news to use to drive the market, and how high to push it, it's just a matter of operation.
Sometimes, the fundamental and technical aspects are often contradictory, and this kind of contradiction often occurs, so at this time, we need to look at emotional indicators. For example, many people are definitely betting on the decline and going short now. I used to love doing this, as soon as I saw a bearish trend, I would immediately go short without hesitation, and then end up losing money. But now I won't do that. I will look at the long/short position ratio and understand who your opponents are before placing a bet.
I'll say it again, remember, in a bear market, every decline is a trap, and the masters die from bottom fishing; in a bull market, every decline is an opportunity to get on board, and beginners die from fear of heights! Everyone, I hope you cherish every decline at this stage. When I see a decline, I buy first as a sign of respect, and never hesitate!
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