The market undervalues Shards, and there is still three times the speculative space for YT USDe on Pendle.

Author: 0xYaro

Translator: Peng SUN, Foresight News

Ethena Labs' Shards are an undervalued "gold shovel," and it was very wise of them to change "points" to "shards," which is very cool.

I calculated the price of Ethena Shards and feel that it is undervalued. In short, hurry to buy YT USDe on Pendle.

First, let's calculate how many "shards" Ethena Labs is expected to issue. From February 19th to March 2nd, the event has lasted for 12 days.

The current total number of shards is 65.78 billion, and nearly 4 billion shards will be generated daily in the future. Joo provided an unofficial forecast that in the next 2 to 4 Epochs, the shard inflation rate will decrease by 25% and 50% respectively from the current rate.

Messari expects the Ethena Shards event to end on March 20th, with 18 days remaining. If this data is accurate, we can now estimate that the total number of shards in the market is approximately 138 billion (65.78 billion + 40 billion * 18 days).

Next, let's calculate how much a Shard is worth. A conservative estimate is from top to bottom, Ethena is expected to be valued at 2 billion US dollars, with an expected airdrop of 5% of the total supply of tokens (about 100 million US dollars). In other words, the implied value of each shard is approximately 0.0007258 US dollars (100 million US dollars / 138 billion shards).

Looking from the bottom up, the market currently undervalues Ethena Shards. Currently, on Pendle, the price of each YT USDe is 0.05 US dollars, and each YT USDe can generate 10 shards per day, accumulating 180 shards per YT USDe after 18 days. In other words, the current market price for 180 shards is 0.05 US dollars, and the implied value of each shard is 0.0002778 US dollars (0.05 US dollars / 180 shards). Buying YT USDe means that Shards still have three times the speculative space.

What I want to say is that before going all in to participate in Ethena Labs' Shard event, everyone still needs to pay attention to the risks:

• The above calculations are based on my own reasonable estimates and may not completely match the actual situation;
• Airdrops do not necessarily mean immediate liquidity, and profits may take a long time to materialize;
• Other risks such as products, smart contracts, etc.

Now you can deposit USDT, USDC, DAI, GHO, crvUSD, mkUSD on the Ethena Labs official website in exchange for USDe. Providing liquidity, locking, or staking USDe can all earn shards. But based on the above analysis, I believe that the best way to obtain shards is to buy YT USDe on Pendle, which not only allows for 181 times leverage points but also qualifies for Ethena's 10 times shard reward.

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