Read the 2024 predictions from 21 institutions and summarized 13 points.

Author: Gwen, Youbi Capital

The SEC's approval of a BTC spot ETF has set a good start for 2024, making it an important milestone for the industry. Let's welcome this year full of innovation and growth, looking forward to more breakthroughs and widespread application of blockchain.

We pay tribute to and sincerely thank the following institutions for their contributions: Hashed, Coinbase, a16z, Nansen, Delphi Digital, Messari, Gemini, Bitcoin Suisse, Outlier Ventures, Pantera Capital, VanEck, Bitwise, The Block, Crypto.com, JP Morgan, Forbes, ETC Group, CoinFund, Swissborg, Spartan, Fidelity.

We have read the 2024 predictions of the above 21 institutions and summarized the following 13 points:

1) BTC ATH has become a consensus, with some institutions making price predictions. Gemini believes BTC will grow by 123%, BITWISE believes it will exceed 80k, and ETC Group believes it will exceed 100k.

2) The ordinals and inscriptions frenzy at the end of 2023 not only boosted the prosperity of the BTC ecosystem but also brought opportunities for the revival of the NFT market. This year still looks promising for the BTC ecosystem, with asset issuance protocols, BTC layer 2, cross-chain bridges, and other infrastructure still accelerating in development. More and more dapps will appear on BTC, such as defi, stablecoins, and more.

3) EIP4844 upgrade and L2 bring hope for Ethereum's recovery, and Ethereum's re-staking will also be an important narrative this year, and Ethereum's defi ecosystem will flourish again. JP Morgan and The Block believe that after the Cancun upgrade, Ethereum will firmly hold the NO.1 position.

4) From a technical perspective, modularization and zk technology are the most favored technologies by many institutions this year, and there will be fierce competition in the DA layer.

5) More than one institution has suggested that Solana has the opportunity to outperform Ethereum (such as Delphi Digital and VanEck), and the launch of Firedancer on the Solana mainnet is worth paying attention to. As for other Layer1 competition, it remains fierce, with differing opinions on Cosmos, Avalanche, and others.

6) The discussion points of DeFi mainly focus on DEX, LSDfi, Restaking, and LRTfi. DEX will revive this year and compete for the position of CEX, and the landscape of top CEX may change. The combination of DEX and CEX may attract more attention, and some institutions mentioned that intent-based will provide a better user experience. Also optimistic about the defi ecosystem on Solana.

7) Next year will see at least one million-level popular game, with many web2 giants transitioning, 3A games, and AI narrative games going online this year, and the full-chain game will also make important progress this year. At the same time, gaming infrastructure such as gaming chains is also worth paying attention to. However, currently, few games can attract users through economic incentives, and airdrops are still a common method. In addition, some public chains will also make efforts in the gaming ecosystem, such as Avalanche, TON.

8) The combination of AI and web3 is an important narrative for 2024. The AI concept will cover all dapp fields, with AI+DePIN being the first hot topic, followed by AI agents, AI services, and AI data, and so on.

9) DePIN will present a positive flywheel effect in the bull market.

10) The concept of consumer apps has already overshadowed Socialfi, and there will be at least one blockbuster consumer app this year. However, the ideal form varies, with most institutions believing that tokenized social products will become mainstream, and many institutions believing that traditional deSoc will continue to exert force. There are also a few institutions that believe the advertising market will have new opportunities, and predictive products will become killers.

11) As some regulatory policies will gradually become clear this year, more and more traditional financial companies will make tokenization attempts, and RWA track has also gained institutional attention. Defi and trafi will build bridges, stablecoin payments will gain more usage scenarios, and more stablecoins such as the Euro will appear in the public eye, and oracles will once again attract users.

12) We will see more traditional giants or celebrities launching NFT products, and NFTfi may have a turning point. The combination of BRC20 assets and NFT, and the NFT market on Solana may be a dark horse.

13) As the entry point for application traffic, the wallet track will compete again. Exchanges will continue to exert force, and AA wallets will provide a better user experience.

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