“Double Flywheel Coin Price Spiral Up Model” + “33 Points to Ignite the Flywheel” has raised high expectations for its performance in the bull market.

Written by: KillerWhalesDAO Tiger Whale Club

With the recovery of the Solana ecosystem and the hot track of Depin, as the leader, $Mobile, the price surged 10 times at the end of 2023, reaching a peak of $0.008.

Recently, with the pullback of Solana's ecosystem tokens, at the time of writing this article, Mobile is now priced at $0.0027, with a maximum pullback of up to 68%.

Along with the decline in token price, there are increasing doubts about blockchain scams. So, what is the fundamental of the Helium Mobile project?

However, there is still too little systematic research and interpretation of Mobile in the Chinese-speaking community. Our Killer Whales DAO plans to systematically and thoroughly analyze and interpret this project in the future, and track on-chain data in real time.

If you are interested in Mobile, Solana ecosystem, DePin, and AI+, please follow us @KillerWhalesDAO.

First of all, we believe that the most outstanding feature of Helium Mobile is that it is a "double flywheel coin price rising model," while matching the "33 points to ignite the flywheel."

The main risks lie in the policy risks of 5G network construction, geographical restrictions limited to the United States, and the potential for unstable signals from telecom virtual operators.

At the same time, Mobile's token chips are too concentrated and have not been listed on mainstream CEX, leading to significant price fluctuations.

In addition, the previous IoT project of the Helium team, hnt, was not successful, with many miners suffering heavy losses and facing a series of issues such as being delisted by Binance. This has to some extent affected people's confidence in Helium's new project.

I. What is Helium Mobile?

Helium Mobile is a decentralized 5G operator that incentivizes network participants to deploy and operate 5G mobile network hardware using the token Mobile, thereby forming a decentralized wireless network (DeWi).

$MOBILE is the Helium subDAO governance token, aimed at achieving governance separation.

As we all know, the biggest cost of 5G network construction is the construction of base stations. Helium Mobile cleverly uses token economic incentives to encourage individuals to purchase hotspot devices similar to routers and deploy them in various indoor and outdoor environments.

In simple terms, it mobilizes the power of the masses to replace large base stations with numerous dispersed small hotspots, thereby achieving lower construction costs, broader network coverage, and cheaper telecom package fees.

II. Double Flywheel Coin Price Spiral Up Model

First of all, Helium Mobile is a POW mining coin, similar to btc and fil. Traditional POW mining coins have a "mining machine-coin price" flywheel effect (see Figure 1).

The money from selling mining machines can be used for market value management, driving up the price.

Then, as the price rises, the increased mining income will attract more people to invest in mining machines.

As a result, more mining machines will be sold, providing more market-making funds to continue driving up the price.

At the same time, once the mining coin flywheel starts spinning, the sale of mining machines and the surge in coin price will attract more retail investors to enter the market.

Once the flywheel starts spinning, it can continue to spiral up by leveraging both sides.

In the past, whether it was btc, fil, or hnt, they were all driven up in this way.

In 2021, fil surged 10 times in a quarter, and hnt surged 100 times in a year.

However, having just the mining coin flywheel alone could lead to it being just an empty bubble. For example, fil's decentralized storage initiative resulted in only mining machines spinning without any real users. And hnt had a large number of ineffective hotspots deployed in China, rendering them unusable.

Although BTC also initiated the mining coin flywheel, the reason it is in a completely different league from fil and hnt is that it has real use cases: payment and value storage. There are indeed a large number of people/institutions using it for settlements and hoarding it like digital gold.

What sets Helium Mobile apart from traditional fil and hnt is that it not only has a layer of mining coin flywheel, but also a layer of "mining machine/hotspot-user" flywheel (see Figure 2).

The more hotspots deployed, the better the user experience and the more users.

At the same time, the more users, the greater the demand for mining machines/hotspots.

A virtuous cycle.

It is a "double flywheel coin price spiral up model."

To avoid the problem of mining machines spinning without real usage, Helium Mobile creatively proposes the principle of determining mining rewards based on usage. Only when real users connect to the hotspot and generate data transmission can they receive Mobile rewards.

If you only purchase a large number of hotspots that are ineffective, you will not receive rewards.

In order to scientifically and reasonably guide the layout of mining machines, Helium Mobile also cleverly encourages mobile plan subscribers to share their mobile location information (Mapping) to receive mobile rewards.

This way, the distribution of users and mining machines' locations is clear at a glance (see Figure 4).

The project team can use different token reward coefficients to guide the layout of mining machines.

In areas with more hotspots than users, the reward is slightly reduced.

In areas with fewer hotspots than users, the reward coefficient is increased.

Through this method, not only is the problem of mining machines spinning without real usage completely solved, but the layout of hotspots is also scientifically and rhythmically guided. It must be said that Helium has accumulated a lot of experience on top of operating hnt in the past.

III. 33 Points to Ignite the Flywheel

Helium Mobile is a double flywheel coin price spiral up model, and to get the flywheel spinning, there must be points to leverage it.

For the "mining machine/hotspot-user" flywheel, it has 3 points to leverage the user end: price slaughter, seamless connection, and token incentives.

For the "mining machine-coin price" flywheel, it also has 3 points to leverage the coin price end: the dual buff of Solana and Depin, token deflation, and extreme MEME.

These six points are collectively referred to as the 33 points to ignite the flywheel.

(I) Price Slaughter

According to JDPower's statistics, in 2023, the average monthly expenditure of American users on telecom packages was $157.

In contrast, using Helium Mobile's package, enjoying unlimited calls, unlimited data, and unlimited texts, only costs $20.

It's reminiscent of the crazy momentum when Didi and KuaiChe were burning money to subsidize users.

(II) Seamless Connection

In our Asian region, many people are not aware that the standard configuration for iPhones in North America includes a physical SIM card slot and an eSIM.

When changing telecom service plans, there is no need to go to a store to change the SIM card, as is the case in mainland China. Additionally, porting numbers also encounters significant obstacles.

All you need to do is download the Helium Mobile app and set up the eSIM on your phone to seamlessly switch to Helium Mobile's service plan.

Another important issue affecting user switching is: what to do when there is limited early hotspot coverage?

Although your $20 plan is very cheap and attractive, if the early hotspot coverage is limited and the signal is poor, leading to a poor user experience, what can be done?

Helium Mobile has already planned for this. It has signed a strategic partnership with T-Mobile, one of the four traditional mobile network operators in the United States, for a period of 5 years.

Helium's own 5G network is combined with T-Mobile's network. When Helium Mobile users are in areas without decentralized wireless network (DeWi) coverage, the encrypted operator will automatically switch to T-Mobile's network.

This fundamentally ensures that users can seamlessly switch to Helium Mobile's service plan, without any inconvenience in usage or cumbersome switching procedures.

(III) Token Incentives

As mentioned earlier, in order to scientifically plan the layout of mining machines, Helium Mobile encourages mobile plan subscribers to share their mobile location information daily.

As a result, Mobile tokens are rewarded for this action.

At the peak of Mobile's price at the end of 2023, people were amazed, saying "Break even in 2 days, net profit in 28 days!"

By subscribing to a $20/month plan, all you need to do is tap your phone once a day, share your location, and then do whatever you want. Helium will reward you with $10 worth of Mobile tokens every day.

In just 2 days of use, this plan is essentially free.

Furthermore, you can continue to use the earned Mobile tokens to prepay for the plan fees for up to 3 months.

This is quite compelling for Americans living in difficult circumstances.

Of course, if you are not satisfied with earning $10 worth of Mobile tokens every day using your phone and want to earn more token rewards, you will need to purchase dedicated mining machines/hotspots. The outdoor version is currently priced at $499 per unit, and it's in high demand, often out of stock. The indoor version is still available, priced at $249 per unit.

This is how Helium Mobile leverages the 3 points on the user end of the "mining machine/hotspot-user" flywheel: price slaughter, seamless connection, and token incentives.

With the leverage of these three points, Helium Mobile's plan subscription has already exceeded 50,000 users. And this number is growing at a rate of several hundred to over a thousand per day.

From a data perspective, the $20/month plan was launched just over a month ago, coinciding with the Christmas holiday season. The momentum of the cold start is good.

Next, let's interpret the 3 points on the coin price end that leverage the "mining machine/hotspot-coin price" flywheel.

(IV) Dual Buff of Solana Ecosystem and Depin Narrative

In 2023, we witnessed the resurgence of Solana, once again shining brightly. This Wall Street elite-led public chain is on the eve of a comprehensive outbreak of its ecosystem. The SOL/ETH exchange rate has also rebounded 5 times from the bottom.

As a leading DePIN project in the Solana ecosystem, Helium is also one of Solana's core strategic focuses for 2024.

According to CoinEx's previous analysis, the focus of the Solana ecosystem is mainly on DeFi, Memecoin, and DePIN.

The main narrative of Solana is DePIN, which is determined by the founder's background, ideas, and layout, and is not just a coincidence.

The founder of Solana, toly, has over ten years of work experience at Qualcomm, including at the start of Solana's financing in 2018, where the founder mentioned wanting to focus on communication and hardware.

At the end of October 2023, at Solana's Breakpoint conference, the Helium Mobile case was placed at the forefront and repeatedly mentioned. In addition, every project mentioned at the conference, such as the founder's attire, had a remarkable performance in November, either surging or announcing an airdrop.

It's basically a project that is officially recommended.

Even without Solana's favoritism, Depin is still one of the main narratives of this bull market.

OKX Chinese @okxchinese did a popular science episode on Depin titled "Why is Depin considered one of the most promising tracks in 2024?" In this episode, Helium Mobile was used as an example for explanation.

And @binancezh also did a special Space on "How to view the new narrative of the Solana ecosystem & Depin?" But throughout the discussion, Helium Mobile was consistently mentioned.

There is no doubt that Depin is one of the main narratives of this bull market, and Helium Mobile firmly occupies a leading position.

According to CoinGecko data, in terms of market value ranking, Helium is currently ranked third in the entire DePIN track. Among the top five projects, 3 of them are from the Solana ecosystem (Render, Helium, and Helium Mobile).

(V) Token Deflation

For old players familiar with Gamefi and mining coins, token inflation and selling pressure have always been major challenges.

Therefore, many people are habitually asking about Mobile, wondering how inflation will be resolved if more users and mining machines join, and whether there are any token consumption scenarios.

This actually shows a lack of understanding of Mobile's token economic model.

Mobile is the same as BTC, with a constant total supply of 250 billion, and there is no inflation.

The annual output is predetermined and has no relation to the number of mining machines. Additionally, it is halved every 2 years.

There were 50 billion pre-mined tokens, and then 66 billion were added in the first year, 33 billion in the second and third years, 16.5 billion in the fourth and fifth years, and so on.

This situation is similar to BTC, which produces a block roughly every 10 minutes, and the output rate is very stable. Whether mining was done with a laptop 10 years ago or with professional mining machines now, the annual output remains fixed and constant.

The more mining machines there are, the less the output per individual mining machine. Miners' incentives mainly come from the rise in coin price.

Like BTC, there is no need to specifically set token consumption scenarios for Mobile. Whether the flywheel can spiral up depends solely on how much market consensus this story can gather.

Furthermore, Mobile not only has a constant total supply, but it also operates on a deflationary model. This is because both hotspot manufacturers and operators are required to stake Mobile tokens (5 billion for Hostpot Vendors and 50 million for Hostpot Operators).

(VI) Ultimate MEME

Helium Mobile possesses all the elements necessary for an ultimate MEME:

First and foremost is the $20/month plan, the cheapest mobile plan in North America, which is highly infectious in itself.

Moreover, this is something even grandmas can understand—cheap telecom plans in the US, the ability to mine on your phone, and the option to set up hotspots to earn more. The imagination is immense.

Finally, the barrier to entry for users is zero, and 5G itself is an absolute necessity, with strong potential to break through barriers.

ICO waves can be triggered because everyone can issue assets now.

Defi Summer has further enriched the assets that can be issued.

The popularity of Gamefi is due to the fact that the threshold for issuing and obtaining assets has been lowered to just playing games, without needing to understand professional blockchain technology or have any resources.

And the reason why Stepn has become a phenomenon in the Gamefi space is because the barrier to entry has been further lowered to the point where anyone who can walk can participate.

Helium Mobile has taken this game to an unprecedented extreme:

The barrier to entry is zero, with no technical barriers. It also doesn't require any time investment—mining on your phone only requires sharing your location, and mining with a hotspot only requires plugging in an Ethernet cable.

Furthermore, 5G networks themselves are an absolute necessity for everyone.

IV. Possible Risks

Although Helium Mobile is quite cleverly designed and the project team has strong resource integration and operational capabilities, there are still many risks in the early stages of the project.

First and foremost, the biggest risk still comes from policy risk. The construction of 5G networks is a strategic infrastructure in any country, especially in the United States, involving multiple departments and complex regulations. Although Helium Mobile wisely clings to T-Mobile's thigh, this may not be a problem in the early stages of the project, but it could be a potential minefield as the scale grows.

Additionally, due to the strategic position of 5G construction, no country will easily allow a foreign company to carry out 5G construction. Therefore, for a considerable period of time, Helium Mobile will be limited to the United States.

Furthermore, the agreement between Helium Mobile and T-Mobile is for a virtual network operator. Virtual network operators had a brief rise in China, but later disappeared due to various issues such as unstable signals and poor service. These past issues may still be obstacles that Helium Mobile needs to focus on in the future.

Finally, Helium's previous IoT project, HNT, was not successful, with many miners suffering heavy losses and facing a series of issues such as being delisted from Binance. This has also to some extent affected people's confidence in Helium's new venture.

At the same time, Mobile's FDV is already 0.7 billion, but the token distribution is too concentrated, and it is not listed on mainstream CEX, leading to poor liquidity.

A high market value, highly concentrated token structure, weak liquidity, combined with a notorious old market player, all indicate that for a considerable period of time, the price of Mobile will fluctuate significantly. Investors need to control their positions and timing of entry.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Helium Mobile is a good project in itself, and its "double flywheel coin price spiral model" and "33 leverage points to ignite the flywheel" make people hopeful for its performance in the bull market. However, due to policy and technical risks, it may ultimately be proven to be just another epic Ponzi scheme.

Disclaimer

The above content does not constitute investment advice, please make your own judgment. Investment is risky and should be approached with caution.

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