Analysis of BTC market on December 18, 2023: The 4-hour downward trend is extending, patiently waiting for a buying opportunity to appear.

CN
1 year ago

The article from the day before yesterday suggests that the current trend is heading towards a 4-hour downward segment (why? Because there is a confirmation of a 1-hour level secondary sell signal). Before the end of the 4-hour downward segment, the focus should be on short positions. Based on the current trend structure, the low point near 40220 will be broken through again. At that time, it will be necessary to judge the end of the downward segment based on the 4-hour level and the sub-level trend.

4-hour level:

From the perspective of the 4-hour level, the trend is still relatively regular. However, for those who are used to monitoring the market and are monitoring at the 30-minute or even 5-minute level, there were opportunities for long positions in the past two days, but corresponding sell signals quickly appeared.

This trend also reveals a principle to us: follow the major trend. Even if you want to trade at a smaller level, it is better to follow the direction of the larger level (even if you are trapped for a short period of time, the probability of getting out of the trap later is also higher).

1-hour level:

Buy and sell points are not always very regular, especially in situations where the long and short sides are in intense competition. Multiple ups and downs near the location of the 1-hour secondary sell signal make the market situation confusing. It is only after the trend has developed that we realize, oh, the 1-hour level secondary sell signal appeared here.

Therefore, we cannot always expect the market to have relatively regular buy and sell points. We need to combine time and space thinking to determine at what position and after roughly how much time a segment or the end of a sub-level trend type should appear. By keeping this in mind, it is less likely to miss the market.

15-minute level:

In the release of bearish energy, patiently wait for the extension of the trend and the appearance of subsequent buy points.

The current short position should be increasing in profit. In the oscillation at the small level, the profit is fluctuating. At this time, it is necessary to hold on and understand the level at which you are trading (I am trading at the 4-hour segment level) and not exit before the corresponding buy point at that level appears.

Simple terminology explanation:

Level: A unique concept in the Chande theory, representing the market in two dimensions of time and space. The larger the level, the longer the time and the greater the fluctuation space, generally including 4-hour level, 1-hour level, 30-minute level, etc.

Trend type: Divided into consolidation and trend, with rising and falling trends; each level has corresponding trend types.

Segment: A sub-level trend type composition, "a segment of a certain level" specifically refers to a segment.

Divergence: Refers to the end of a rise or fall, where the price reaches a new high/low but shows obvious exhaustion in momentum. Usually judged with the help of MACD.

The views in the article are for learning and reference only and do not constitute investment advice.

If you want to systematically study the Chande theory, use the Chande theory automatic drawing tool, participate in offline Chande theory training camps, improve your trading skills, and develop your own trading system to achieve a stable profit target, and use Chande theory technology to timely exit at the top and bottom, you can scan the following QR code to add my WeChat (vhenrythu) for consultation and learning exchange!

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