The frequency of recent updates is not as high as in the previous months. On the one hand, this is because the recent market trend is becoming more "US stock-like". The daytime market in Beijing time has very small fluctuations, and it is only after 8-9 pm Beijing time, corresponding to the opening time of the US stock market, that the market fluctuations begin to amplify. This situation has often occurred in the past, but it is particularly noticeable recently. On the other hand, the market trend has not provided much to discuss as it has in the past. So, daily articles focusing only on market analysis may be a bit boring, and I will try to write about other trading experiences besides market analysis in the future.
Let's continue to look at the current market situation, on the 4-hour chart:
On the 4-hour chart, the ongoing upward rebound may continue to extend, possibly breaking through the previous high of 43862, or it may form a 4-hour penultimate sell-off at this point and turn downward. Currently, I believe that it is possible to enter at least 50% of the short position on the 4-hour chart. If there is an upward extension, it is possible to continue adding to the position when judging the end of the extension.
On the 30-minute chart:
On the 30-minute chart, there is still a possibility of upward extension. However, even if there is an extension at this point, I personally think the space is not large. Therefore, considering the large-scale pattern on the 4-hour chart, I think it is more appropriate to enter 50% of the long-term short position.
The current market, the expectation of a large-scale retracement is very clear, so we must adhere to the principle of "vague correctness". If the outlook is bearish on a large scale, then there is no need to be too precise about entering all positions at the exact top on a small scale. That is, it is not necessary to be so precise on a small scale.
However, if there is a lack of clarity on a large scale and a long position is taken at the buy point on the 30-minute chart below, and there is an expectation for the 4-hour chart to break through 49,000 and reach a new high, in my opinion, this is "precise error". Even if the buy point on the 30-minute chart was captured yesterday, if there is a misunderstanding on a large scale, it will ultimately lead to losses (if the stop loss is not adhered to, it may ultimately lead to catastrophic consequences).
The above statements are based on a correct analysis of the market. If the subsequent market proves that the current long position is still strong, it can only mean that my skills are not up to par, but I hope everyone can understand the concept of "vague correctness" and "precise error".
Simple terminology explanation:
Level: A unique concept in the theory of Chan, representing the market in two dimensions of time and space. The larger the level, the longer the time and the greater the fluctuation space, generally 4-hour level, 1-hour level, 30-minute level, etc.
Trend type: Divided into consolidation and trend, with rising and falling trends; each level has a corresponding trend type.
Segment: The composition of the trend type of the secondary level, "a segment of a certain level" specifically refers to a segment.
Divergence: Refers to the end of a rise or fall, where the price reaches a new high/low, but the momentum clearly weakens. Usually judged with the help of MACD.
The views in the article are for learning and reference only and do not constitute investment advice.
If you want to operate together, seize the opportunity of the bull market and high-quality altcoins, you can add my WeChat (vhenrythu) for consultation and exchange of learning!
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
