Author: Mike
A. Market Viewpoints
I. Macro Liquidity
Monetary liquidity has improved. The tightening cycle of the Federal Reserve is coming to an end, and the timing of the first interest rate cut is crucial for global assets, with the key to the rate cut lying in the employment data. While the number of employed people in the United States has slowed for four consecutive months, wage growth has also cooled further. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has dropped from 5% in October to the current 4%, slightly easing concerns about the financial situation. The US stock market is volatile, with investors worried about future economic recession. The cryptocurrency market has shown strength, reaching a new high for over a year.
II. Overall Market Trends
Top 100 market capitalization gainers:
BTC surged this week, and altcoins also rose. The market focus is on the BTC ecosystem, gaming, and Depin. BTC inscriptions are the engine of this bull market, bringing in more new users and new funds, and inspiring developers to build a simple Defi ecosystem around BTC. The gaming sector as a whole has seen a general rise, with gaming public chains, gaming guilds, launch platforms, and new games all achieving several-fold increases.
ORDI: It is the leader in the BTC ecosystem and the first inscription of the BRC20 protocol. Recently, due to differing views among BTC core developers, there has been a significant turnover of chips. Historically, as a leader in a new type of asset, it is highly likely to enter the top 30 in market capitalization.
RUNE: It is a cross-chain trading platform in the Cosmos ecosystem, with strong value-capturing capabilities and a built-in three times leverage. Recently, trading volume has grown rapidly, benefiting from a large influx of funds into the Cosmos ecosystem. OLAS: It is an oracle in the AI sector. The founder comes from the original FET team and has strong technical capabilities. OLAS's market capitalization has surpassed FET, becoming a leader in the AI sector.
BONK: It is a meme coin in the Solana ecosystem, originating from a satire of SBF, and has united the Solana developer community. BONK has surged more than 40 times in this round, with a market capitalization second only to DOGE and SHIB, becoming the third largest dog coin.
III. BTC Market Trends
1) On-chain Data
For the first time since 2020, BTC's daily income has exceeded that of ETH. The development of BTC inscriptions has greatly improved miners' fee income. The proportion of BTC on-chain fees has risen from 2% in August to 25% in November, mainly due to the introduction of Ordinals trading pairs. It is expected that by the time of the halving in April 2024, this ratio may reach 50%.
The market value of stablecoins continues to rise. The total market value of USDT has surpassed 90 billion US dollars, reaching a historical high.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore uses the total market cost as a basis, reflecting the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is in the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is in the bottom range. MVRV has fallen below the key level of 1, indicating that holders are generally in a loss-making state. The current indicator is 1.6, entering the recovery phase.
Institutional investment products in the cryptocurrency market have seen net inflows for 10 consecutive weeks, with total inflows exceeding 1.8 billion US dollars. Looking at different regions, there has been a net inflow of funds in the European and American regions, while there has been a net outflow of funds in the Asian region.
2) Futures Market Trends
Funding rate for futures: This week's rate is positive, indicating normal market sentiment. After reaching the highest rate of the year on November 12, the BTC rate began to adjust. With rates between 0.05% and 0.1%, there is a higher long leverage, indicating a short-term market top; with rates between -0.1% and 0%, there is a higher short leverage, indicating a short-term market bottom.
Futures open interest: The total open interest of BTC has slightly increased this week, basically synchronized with price fluctuations.
Futures long/short ratio: 0.8. Retail sentiment is bearish. Retail sentiment is often a contrarian indicator, with below 0.7 indicating fear and above 2.0 indicating greed. The long/short ratio data fluctuates greatly, weakening its reference significance.
3) Spot Market Trends
BTC surged past 42,000, returning to the level it was at during the April 2022 LUNA flash crash. The prosperity of the BTC inscription ecosystem, combined with the expectation of the approval of spot ETFs and the upcoming halving cycle next year, resonated with this significant surge. MicroStrategy purchased another 600 million US dollars' worth of BTC last month, bringing its total holdings to over 5 billion US dollars, making it the biggest beneficiary. The next target is 48,000, which will be the starting point for this round of decline. At that time, those who have unwound their positions may tend to sell or face greater resistance.
B. Market Data
I. Total Lock-up Amount of Public Chains
II. Proportion of TVL for Various Public Chains
The overall TVL increased by approximately 3.6 billion US dollars, a rise of about 7.8% this week. The market saw a significant increase, with BTC successfully breaking the $38,000 price and reaching $44,000 directly. The TVL surged significantly this week, with the top twenty mainstream public chains all experiencing substantial gains. ETH saw an 8.3% increase, BSC saw a 2.4% increase, TRON, ARB, and POLYGON all saw around a 7% increase. BASE saw a 10% increase and the protocol count has reached 194, with the potential to surpass OP in protocol count before 2024.
III. Lock-up Amount of Protocols for Various Chains
1) Lock-up Amount for ETH
2) Lock-up Amount for BSC
3) Lock-up Amount for Polygon
4) Lock-up Amount for Arbitrum
5) Lock-up Amount for Optimism
6) Lock-up Amount for Base
IV. NFT Market Data Changes
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT Market Situation
3) NFT Trading Market Proportion
4) NFT Buyer Analysis
This week, the floor prices of top blue-chip projects saw substantial increases, with MAYC rising by 11%, Pudgy Penguins skyrocketing by 66%, Azuki surging by 50%, Moonbird soaring by 59%, and Milady rising by 17%. Over the past week, NFT market trading volume continued to surge significantly, and gas fees and usage also increased further. With the market's further rise, the NFT market is gradually emerging from its low point. Before the bull market arrives next year, there is likely to be a display of more novel NFT projects and gameplay modes, and we look forward to seeing how NFTs will perform before the arrival of the new bull market.
V. Latest Financing Situation for Projects
VI. Post-Investment Dynamics
1) HyperOracle - ZK Infrastructure
HyperOracle is integrating with Polygon CDK, opening up a new realm of possibilities and providing unparalleled computational capabilities for Polygon builders. HyperOracle will also focus on providing a Type 1 zkWASM proof solution for CDK.
2) Space Nation - Gamefi
Space Nation releases details of its first NFT Spaceships:
- Total supply: 1155
- Launch platform: Logistikos
- Chain: Ethereum
- Minting stages: 4 stages
- WL price: 0.02 ETH
- Stage price: 0.03 ETH
3) Shardeum - Layer 1
Shardeum releases Dapp Boilerplate, a plug-and-play solution that allows developers to start coding directly and begin work through easily configurable template repos.
Early access: https://t.co/YDeInokwH8
4) Polyhedra Network - Infra
Polyhedra Network adds support for Trust Wallet, providing users with a more secure and decentralized asset transfer and interaction choice, allowing Trust Wallet to initiate NFT and token transfers on Polyhedra Network through wallet connection.
Polyhedra Network focuses on designing and implementing zkBridge, providing cross-chain infrastructure for interoperability between Layer1 and Layer2.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
