Preview of this week (11.27-12.3), BTC long-term holders hit a historical high, with over 70% of the supply being locked up; the significant appreciation of the RMB has three reasons, which also led to the decline in the U price…
○/Author: DC Research Institute
Old Li Mortar
Table of Contents for This Week's Research Report:
I. Key events preview of macroeconomic data and the crypto market for this week;
II. Review of key news in the crypto industry;
III. Community interaction and sharing;
IV. Interpretation of important events, data, and analysis by the Deepcoin Research Institute;
V. Institutional perspectives and overseas views;
VI. Crypto market performance ranking and selection of hot community coins;
VII. Attention to project token unlock negative data;
VIII. Crypto market sector performance ranking;
IX. Overview of global market macro analysis;
X. Future market analysis by the Deepcoin Research Institute.
I. Key events preview of macroeconomic data and the crypto market for this week:
November 27 (Monday): Annualized total new home sales in the US for October; ECB President Lagarde to speak at the European Parliament. Binance Japan will add support for 13 new crypto assets including OP and NEAR for spot trading. Binance will support the token replacement of TVK and rebrand as VANRY.
November 28 (Tuesday): 20-city home price index for September in the US; Consumer Confidence Index for November by the US Chamber of Commerce; Federal Reserve Board Governor Waller to speak on economic outlook; Launch of a new consensus mechanism on the EOS network. Federal Reserve Board Governor Waller to speak on economic outlook.
November 29 (Wednesday): US third-quarter real GDP; The AICC 2023 Artificial Intelligence Computing Conference opens in Beijing; STRK may see its first unlock.
November 30 (Thursday): Core PCE Price Index for October in the US; Flash estimate of CPI for November in the Eurozone; Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions. Court holds a hearing on the proposed settlement between Genesis and Three Arrows Capital.
December 1 (Friday): Final Manufacturing PMI for November in the Eurozone; South Korea's import and export data for November. SEC holds a closed-door meeting on topics related to litigation. dYdX unlocks over 500 million tokens.
December 2 (Saturday): Fireside chat with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell; Speech by Federal Reserve Board Governor Quarles.
November 27 to December 3, YGG, AGIX, DYDX, NYM, OP, ACA, 1INCH, and TORN tokens will be unlocked all at once this week.
II. Review of key news in the crypto industry (Exclusive compilation):
Data:
CME's BTC holdings reach 118,540 coins (worth $4.42 billion), hitting a historical high.
The Ethereum network has burned a total of 3,749,835.43 ETH.
Grayscale's GBTC negative premium has narrowed to 8.07%.
Open interest for Bitcoin futures contracts has reached $16.947 billion.
Total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies exceeds $1.5 trillion.
CertiK: Private key leaks have caused over $800 million in losses by 2023.
Total open interest in BTC options hits a historical high, reaching $18.996 billion.
Projects and platforms:
Data: Monthly average USDC transfer volume on the Solana network exceeds $70 billion.
Coinbase International will launch perpetual futures contracts for ADA, LINK, DOGE, and XLM.
Data: Blast Network's TVL exceeds $500 million.
Coinbase's stock price reaches its highest value since May 2022.
Grayscale submits an S-3 filing for an ETF, planning to change the GBTC code to BTC.
Macro policies and regulatory aspects:
US Department of Justice: Urges the court to require Zhao Changpeng to stay in the US during the plea and sentencing.
Progress in the JPEX fraud case: 66 individuals have been arrested, and the amount involved has increased to approximately $1.6 billion.
BIS President: Tokenization in CBDCs will help develop the current financial system.
Foreign media: Interactive Brokers Hong Kong obtains a retail virtual asset trading license in Hong Kong.
The SEC will hold a closed-door meeting on November 30 to discuss the formulation of bans, litigation, and settlement.
Coinbase cites enforcement actions against Kraken to urge the SEC to establish crypto rules.
CZ's sentencing hearing will be held in February next year.
Institutional research reports and perspectives:
SlowMist: Estimated total losses from security incidents in the crypto market last week exceed $168 million.
Glassnode: Approval of a physical Bitcoin ETF could bring in $70 billion in capital inflows.
JPMorgan: GBTC may face $2.7 billion in outflows when converting to an ETF.
Bloomberg: BlackRock leans towards a physically backed Bitcoin ETF mechanism in discussions with the SEC.
Nansen: Binance has not experienced large-scale asset outflows, with holdings reaching $65.2 billion.
III. Community interaction and sharing:
Regarding volatility, this week's important economic data is relatively limited, and there are fewer significant cryptocurrency events. As the year-end approaches, traders in Europe and the US are entering a long holiday period, leading to subdued market trading and generally reduced market volatility.
Regarding contract trading volume data, third-party market data websites such as aicoin can be consulted. However, the statistics are not comprehensive, considering the large number of global exchanges, and representative platforms are chosen for statistics.
Regarding the research report, it is released every Monday, and the morning report shares some data and important information. In the past 24 hours, trading volume has decreased, the long/short ratio has not changed significantly, and market sentiment indicators have remained stable, aligning with the market's fluctuations over the weekend.
IV. Interpretation of important events, data, and analysis by the Deepcoin Research Institute:
According to data tracked by the blockchain analysis company Glassnode, the percentage of Bitcoin supply that has not been active on-chain for at least a year has reached 70.35%, hitting a historical high, surpassing the peak of 69.35% in July. The percentage of supply that has not moved on-chain in two, three, and five years is also at historical highs. An observer noted that Bitcoin holders do not seem inclined to sell their inventory at the current price levels or in the short term.
The Deepcoin Research Institute believes that this data better illustrates the dynamics of long-term holders. Whether it's the one-year cycle or the 2-5 year cycle, the number of long-term holders is increasing, reaching a historical high. Generally, long-term holders are mostly main funds and large-scale investors, who have a greater influence on the major trend, and are somewhat correlated with institutional positioning in recent years. With long-term holders accounting for over 70% of the supply, it can be understood that most of the mined bitcoins are now in a locked state, effectively controlling the market's reduced circulation and causing deflation, which has also contributed to the rise in BTC prices. However, what goes up must come down, and we need to be cautious about potential sell-offs by main funds in the future.
Regarding the appreciation of the RMB and the significant decline in the U price.
The Deepcoin Research Institute believes that the recent significant appreciation of the RMB is mainly due to two forces at play. On one hand, the Fed's interest rate hike cycle has come to an end, and several Fed officials have already lowered their expectations for rate hikes. This includes the recent decline in US Treasury yields, indicating that the market has begun to receive signals of reduced rate hike expectations, which naturally exerts bearish pressure on the US dollar.
On the other hand, the meeting between China and the US in San Francisco has eased expectations of a rapid slide into conflict between the two countries. Although other sanctions have not been lifted, it has at least relieved the market and halted continued bearish pressure. In addition, the recent large-scale purchases of RMB by the central bank to support the exchange rate (as verified by a recent Reuters article) have combined to produce the current effect.
Finally, there is also a factor of concentrated foreign exchange settlement at the end of the year, with many involved in foreign trade selling dollars and exchanging them for RMB.
The pricing of USDT is based on the real exchange rate. Onshore and offshore exchange rates have dropped to around 7.12-7.13 at the lowest since November 14, and the RMB has seen a significant appreciation since then, with the U price reacting with a delay, starting to decline significantly from November 20. After the APEC meeting between China and the US, the exchange rate began to change, which can actually be seen as a leading indicator. Both onshore and offshore exchange rates will react ahead of the U price for a period of time, as the U value ultimately follows them.
V. Institutional perspectives and overseas views:
Glassnode's researchers pointed out in a report published on November 20 that a large influx of demand will challenge the relatively limited supply of Bitcoin (BTC), potentially increasing volatility. Glassnode's research indicates a significant suppressed demand for spot Bitcoin ETF products. Analysts estimate that stock, bond, and gold investors allocating a small portion of their assets could result in up to $70.5 billion flowing into the market. Even more conservative estimates suggest that there could be hundreds of billions of dollars entering the market in the initial years. The research report explains that to understand the potential market dynamics after the ETF launch, attention needs to be shifted to the available supply of Bitcoin. The analysis emphasizes how long-term accumulation is tightening the circulating supply of Bitcoin. Currently, over 76% of Bitcoin is held long-term, concentrated in the hands of holders who have a smaller reaction to price fluctuations. Glassnode's research shows that the supply of short-term and active traders recently hit multi-year lows.
The latest report from Matrixport indicates that with CZ stepping down as CEO and the fine amount being lower than the previously concerning $10 billion, Binance is likely to remain one of the top three exchanges in the next 2-3 years. There may be pressure to "rationalize" the company with its 6,000 employees. Although this plea deal does not include the US SEC, it is a very favorable outcome for CZ and Binance itself. The report's analysis of the impact of this regulation suggests that more exchanges will strengthen their compliance plans and become part of a monitoring sharing agreement, which will help in the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US. With this plea deal, expectations for a spot Bitcoin ETF may have risen to 100%, as the entire industry will be forced to comply with the rules that traditional financial companies must follow. More importantly, the whitewashing of this industry will strengthen institutional investors' adoption of Bitcoin and may make Bitcoin a safe-haven asset in investors' portfolios.
Some traders expect Bitcoin to trade sideways in the coming weeks due to the uncertainty of the next steps by the Federal Reserve and a key regulatory decision regarding ETFs being postponed, which has hindered Bitcoin's recent upward trend. Analysts at Bitbank, a Japanese exchange led by Yukari Kusu, stated in a report on Tuesday, "The upside potential of Bitcoin has been suppressed at the psychological level of $38,000. One of the reasons Bitcoin has not been able to break through this level is that the SEC postponed Hashdex's application to convert its existing Bitcoin futures ETF to a spot ETF last Thursday." Meanwhile, analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex stated in a report on Tuesday that they expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the December meeting: "Overall inflation has significantly decreased from 6.4% at the beginning of the year. This should give the Federal Reserve enough room to maintain interest rates at the December meeting, which is in line with the current expectations of the Federal Reserve futures market and its goal of maintaining economic expansion."
Last week's top gainers in the crypto market and community hot coins selection:
In the past week, the top gainers in the altcoin market include USTC, which surged by about 330%; ZRX, with an increase of approximately 160%; SUPER\MIR, with an increase of 100-150%; and CTXC, with an increase of 93%. These coins are worth monitoring for potential trading opportunities as the market hotspots shift.
- Attention to negative effects of project token unlocks:
Yield Guild Games token YGG will unlock 16.69 million tokens (approximately $6.36 million) on November 27 at 22:00, accounting for 5.84% of the circulating supply.
Singularity NET token AGIX will unlock 9.39 million tokens (approximately $2.90 million) on November 28 at 08:00, accounting for 0.76% of the circulating supply.
dYdX token DYDX will unlock 2.16 million tokens (approximately $7.36 million) on November 28 at 23:00, accounting for 1.2% of the circulating supply.
Nym token NYM will unlock 25 million tokens (approximately $3.91 million) on November 29 at 08:00, accounting for 4.1% of the circulating supply.
Optimism token OP will unlock 24.16 million tokens (approximately $43.49 million) on November 30 at 12:00, accounting for 2.74% of the circulating supply.
Acala token ACA will unlock 27.43 million tokens (approximately $1.62 million) on December 1 at 15:00, accounting for 3.31% of the circulating supply.
1inch token 1INCH will unlock 98.74 million tokens (approximately $35.07 million) on December 1 at 20:00, accounting for 9.48% of the circulating supply.
Tornado Cash token TORN will unlock 228,400 tokens (approximately $84,900) on December 3 at 11:06, accounting for 0.6% of the circulating supply. These tokens are worth monitoring for potential negative effects due to the unlocks, and it is advisable to avoid spot trading and seek short opportunities in contracts. Among these, 1INCH and YGG have relatively large unlock amounts and should be closely watched.
- Last week's top gainers in the crypto market concept sectors:
In the past week, the performance of concept sectors is as follows: algorithmic stablecoins surged by 58.39%; DeFi 2.0 increased by 49.07%; AI artificial intelligence rose by 36.19%; RWA increased by 33.71%; and cross-chain & sidechain rose by 21.36%. These sectors have seen leading increases, and it is worth paying attention to the trading opportunities of the leading strong coins in these sectors with significant increases.
- Overview of global market macro analysis: [No content provided]
Please note that the translation provided is based on the original content and may not reflect the accuracy of the information.
Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes experienced mixed movements as the stock market closed early for Thanksgiving. At the close, the Dow rose by 0.33%, with a weekly gain of 1.27%; the Nasdaq fell by 0.11%, with a weekly gain of 0.89%; and the S&P 500 rose by 0.06%, with a weekly gain of 1%. Novo Nordisk's stock rose by 2.12%, reaching a historic high. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 0.427% to close at 4.472%, with a spread of -48 basis points compared to the two-year Treasury bond yield. The VIX fear index fell by 2.66%, and Brent crude oil closed down by 1.2%. Spot gold has been on a continuous rise since November 2022, but has been on a downward trend since May 2023. There was a rebound from October 2nd to October 23rd, and it rose by 0.47% yesterday, closing at $2002.28 per ounce. The U.S. dollar index has been steadily declining from its high in October 2022, with some rebounds in between. It closed down by 0.31% yesterday, at 103.44.
In the A-share market, the three major indexes collectively declined last week. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.40%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 2.45%. On the market, the flu concept, traditional Chinese medicine, agriculture, farming, and real estate sectors led the gains, while Huawei's industrial chain concept stocks, chip stocks, computing power leasing, and storage sectors led the declines.
In the Hong Kong stock market, all three major indexes rose. The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.6% for the week, the H-share index rose by 1.12%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.12%. In terms of sectors, real estate stocks, consumer electronics, AIGC concepts, and semiconductors led the gains, while smart medical, Xiaomi concepts, network security, hotel resorts, and Apple concepts led the declines.
Looking ahead, there are many significant global events in the coming week. Internationally, the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference will open in Dubai, UAE; the U.S. will release the revised GDP for the third quarter; the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions; the U.S. will have a major release of the October core PCE price index; several European and American countries will release the November manufacturing PMI; the "OPEC+ meeting" will take place; Apple will hold a developer experience day for headsets in Shanghai on November 28; and Tesla's Cybertruck deliveries will begin.
On "Black Friday," U.S. online sales increased by 7.5% year-on-year, reaching a record $9.8 billion (approximately 70 billion RMB), exceeding analysts' expectations and growing by 72% compared to the week before Thanksgiving.
Market Outlook:
BTC Daily Chart: There has been a certain amount of pullback within the day on Monday, currently testing the lower ascending trend line, with support around $35,890. Maintaining this level will sustain the flag-shaped upward trend; breaking below will test the starting point of the recent oscillating uptrend around $33,200.
In the future, as long as the $31,800-$32,400 range can be maintained at the higher level, there is still a chance to maintain a high-level oscillating market. In the short term, the resistance above is currently around the recent high of $38,400. It is crucial at this point, and if not broken, there is a high probability of oscillation below. If it can be broken, the medium-term reference points are around $40,000 and $42,976, as analyzed earlier in November. According to the viewpoint in last week's research report, the area near the previous high of $38,000 can be considered for short positions, with relatively easy control of profit and loss, and significant profits have already been made.
ETH 4-hour candlestick chart: After breaking the previous downtrend line, it has been repeatedly testing the extension position of the trend line, currently in a state of oscillation. The resistance above is around the recent highs of $2119 and $2136.6, with the important long-term bull-bear watershed around $2143. The short-term support is around $1962, near the ascending trend line.
Follow us: Lao Li Mortar
DC Research Institute
November 27, 2023
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
