Author: Jie Xuan Chua, Binance Research
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Various Bots tokens on Telegram have recently attracted attention with astonishing price surges. Although the prices have since fallen, the narrative of early fluctuations is still worth paying attention to.
Binance Research has released a research report on Telegram Bots, pointing out that the cumulative trading volume of Telegram bots has exceeded $190 million, with a daily peak trading volume of $10 million.
What is the trading model of these bots, how will the entire track develop in the future, and what are the potential risks?
Key points:
Telegram bots provide functions such as trading and airdrop sniping in a more user-friendly way, allowing users to participate in crypto activities through mobile devices.
The cumulative trading volume of Telegram bots has exceeded $190 million, with a daily peak trading volume of $10 million.
Telegram bots profit from collecting trading fees and "taxes" on token transactions. The total revenue has exceeded $28.7 million.
It is difficult to determine the real demand at this stage, and the current popularity is largely driven by the rise in token prices. However, this field is expected to continue developing in the short term.
General Process of Telegram Bot Trading
Users input commands in the channel of Telegram bots, and the bot will generate a main menu.
Users can set up a new wallet or connect an existing wallet in the menu and deposit funds into the wallet using the provided address.
Then, they can execute different types of transactions, such as buying and selling tokens, airdrop sniping, and copy trading.
Evaluation:
Compared to existing DeFi frontends, Telegram bots provide a more user-friendly and convenient user experience (especially for novice users).
Telegram has 800 million monthly active users, and those who are familiar with Telegram but have not yet entered the crypto circle are a good target audience.
Common Functions and Comparison of Telegram Bots
Trading: Users can directly buy and sell tokens through Telegram.
Airdrop Sniping: Automatically buy tokens when they are newly listed.
Copy Trading: Simulate the trades of other traders.
Airdrop Farming: Automatically execute a series of operations to increase the chance of receiving airdrops.
Other functions: Such as analysis or wallet tracking.
The typical functions provided by bots are basically a trade-off among the above functions.
Evaluation:
Does it feel like having a bunch of apps, where previously you had to go to A for e-commerce, B for financial management, and C for offline life, and now one WeChat encompasses all content?
With a huge traffic entrance and functional integration, although bot functions are still in the early stage, providing an "all-in-one" article in the traffic pool is a method that is clearly different from most DeFi applications.
Comprehensive Analysis of the Track
Overall potential: Telegram reportedly has over 800 million monthly active users, who can now engage in crypto activities through mobile devices in a different way.
Market value and project status:
At the time of writing this article, the market value of bot-related tokens has exceeded $150 million, and many tokens have grown several times in the short term.
The key contributor is the UNIBOT token, which occupies over 77% of the market share. The interest on Google search has also continued to increase with UNIBOT as the agent.
Evaluation:
According to the general process of attention and attention shift of ordinary users, it is often the price that rises first, and then they search on search engines. Therefore, the more the price rises, the more people search, but in reality, the proportion of users who actually use bot trading is not very high.
Although the report from Binance did not provide a more precise analysis of the churn rate, we can understand it as a normal process of new narrative development, from a small number of people paying attention to price increase, to more people searching, and then the price starts to decline.
User adoption:
User metrics hit a new high in July, with daily user numbers exceeding 6,000.
Maestro remains the leader, with approximately 2,000-3,000 daily active users. Unibot is catching up, with the gap significantly narrowing in the past few weeks; the daily active users surged from around 400 to a peak of 1,700 in the two weeks of July.
The daily trading volume on bots reached a record high, exceeding $10 million. The cumulative trading volume over the entire lifecycle has also exceeded $190 million. Note that the actual number may be higher, as not all data is immediately available.
Token impact:
The trading activity of tokens has the ability to influence community participation, especially for new narratives.
Rising token prices and trading volumes attract attention and discussions, and vice versa.
Although still at a high level, we have noticed that the trading volume of these native bot tokens has slowed down in the past few days, coinciding with the overall decline in bot users and the number of bots.
Evaluation: Speculation is the primary productive force. But whether this narrative has ended, or whether there will be another round of speculation, is not certain.
Revenue Model of Bot Projects
Trading volume and taxes jointly determine the revenue of bot projects:
Users initiate trading behavior through bots.
The protocol earns trading fees.
Users buy/sell bot-related tokens.
The protocol levies taxes on the behavior in 3.
For example, Unibot has collected a total of 4.3K ETH (approximately $8 million), of which about 86% comes from buying or selling taxes, rather than trading revenue.
- Telegram bots have collected over 15,000 ETH (approximately $28.7 million) in revenue from this year to July.
- Maestro is currently leading in cumulative revenue, with Unibot ranking second, but the difference in revenue between the two is more than double.
In addition, the relatively high daily active user numbers of approximately 2,000-3,000 allow Maestro to generate stable trading revenue.
The trading revenue comes from Maestro charging a 1% trading fee for each successful buy or sell order through the application.
Track Prospects and Risks
Ongoing and potential development directions:
Expansion to other media: Many bots have expanded from Telegram to other media, such as Discord. This allows them to reach more users and provide another venue for executing trades.
Adding to the product portfolio: While some bots may choose to focus on a single area (e.g., sniping), we speculate that more bots will attempt to develop new features to cover more areas and become a one-stop shop. Users only need to visit one bot to execute various types of trades.
Cross-chain expansion: We have observed bots expanding across chains, not just on the Ethereum blockchain. This allows them to facilitate trading for users across different blockchains.
Price wars: The fees of most Telegram bots are currently not cheap. When the industry matures and there is almost no product differentiation among many established players, lower fees can be used to attract users.
Potential risks:
Asset security: Bots have different settings, but they generally allow users to create dedicated wallets or connect existing wallets. In both cases, the bot will access the private key, which may pose a risk.
Smart contract risk: Given the operation of bots, interaction with smart contracts is inevitable. Although the audit is not comprehensive enough, strictly audited projects will enable developers to identify and address critical issues.
User recommendations:
- Trade on a smaller scale.
- Keep wallet funds to a minimum.
- Create a new wallet when interacting with bots instead of using the main wallet.
Conclusion
It is important to note that a significant proportion of the revenue of some bots may come from taxes on trading sales or purchases, rather than bot trading revenue.
At this stage, it is too early to determine whether Telegram bots can continue to attract user interest.
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