This article is jointly produced by PANews and BIT US Stocks. BIT US Stocks offers more than 10,000 US main board stocks and ETFs, supports stablecoin deposits and withdrawals as well as traditional USD wire transfers, and enjoys full shareholder rights and dividend voting rights.
BTC Continues to Be Marginalized, Memes See Partial Heating Up
Bitcoin fell back from around $65,000 last week, operating mostly in the range of $62,000 to $63,500, with a 7-day drop of 3.08%. In stark contrast to the consistently reaching new highs of the S&P 500 index, BTC is experiencing significant neglect from funds.
Daniel YU, head of asset management at BIT, believes that the rise in the US stock market relies on the expectation of "no interest rate hikes" and corporate earnings resilience, while Bitcoin is more dependent on ETF fund flows. Last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of approximately $390 million, the largest single weekly outflow in nearly six weeks, indicating that the previous week's inflow of $854 million was more like short-term capital rather than a trend reversal.
The market generally focuses on the double bottom support around $62,100–$62,200 (near last week's low) and the resistance around $63,500–$64,000. Analyst CrypNuevo expects that the price may first sweep down liquidity near $61,600 before rebounding. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes that $63,400 is the key level BTC must break through; if it falls below $62,200 and sweeps out the low liquidity, it could still rebound to $65,000 later. CrypNuevo anticipates that liquidity below may concentrate around $61,600, with a higher probability of a price dip followed by a rebound. On the upside, Kaz points out that if it breaks through $65,400, it is likely to fill the gap between $67,000 to $68,000, but $64,500 to $64,800 remains a short-term selling pressure zone.
Additionally, analyst Benjamin Cowen reminds that Bitcoin has fallen below the 200-week simple moving average, viewed as the long-term bull-bear boundary. In both the summer of 2022 and 2026, Bitcoin rebounded after falling below the 200-week moving average, but then lost it again in mid-August. He also reminds that according to historical cycles, this cycle is currently on day 1363, while the bottoms of the previous two cycles occurred on day 1432 and day 1436, meaning the market may not yet be finished approaching the true bottom window of the cycle.
At the same time, Rekt Capital states that this Bitcoin bear market cycle is 86% complete. In response to the recent market's common belief that Bitcoin has already bottomed, he analyzed that this assumption implies a much narrower adjustment range than historical cycles (historically usually only narrowed by 7% to 10%), and that the bottom occurred 33% earlier than in historical cycles, suggesting significant data discrepancies.
Daniel YU believes that the current market should focus on capital flow; until Bitcoin regains above $65,000, all rebounds should be considered as range repairs. Attention should be focused on the $62,000 to $62,500 range below; if it effectively falls below this range, further attention should be paid to the support situation in the $61,500 to $60,500 region.
While mainstream assets are quiet, the Meme market is showing extreme localized trends. The "Bull is Coming" on BNB Chain had a trading volume exceeding $47 million in 24 hours, with its market cap briefly surpassing $45 million, jumping about 100% in 24 hours; its single coin trading volume is already close to that of the entire Meme sector on Robinhood Chain.
In addition, MarsCoin experienced an extreme trend over the weekend, with a single-day surge exceeding 400 times, reaching a market cap of over $36 million, before plummeting more than 90% to about $2.8 million, and currently rebounding to about $5.3 million. CZ publicly stated that he will stop using public addresses and donate BNB and related tokens to Giggle Academy to avoid the community over-interpreting wallet operations.
Key Points for Today:
Binance will delist ACX, HFT, PIVX, PYR, VANRY, VIC on August 17
Hashdex will close the Hashdex Bitcoin ETF, with the last trading day being August 17
Coinbase Derivatives will launch US500 index perpetual futures for US users on August 17
Coinbase will stop supporting USDC deposits and withdrawals onthe Noble network on August 17
Bithumb will delist multiple tokens including GRACY, SPURS on August 18
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, ONG, BTC, CAP, CHIP
Last week, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $390 million
Last week, Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of $2.26 million
Last week, HYPE spot ETF saw a net inflow of $2.7422 million
Last week, XRP spot ETF saw a net inflow of $2.25 million
Last week, SOL spot ETF saw a net inflow of $10.26 million
Today’s top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap: BTW up 11.1%, MORPHO up 5.2%, ZEC up 4.7%, ETHFI up 4.7%, PUMP up 4.3%.
US Stocks Rise in Night Trading, Storage and Optical Communication Remain Key
The three major US stock index futures displayed mixed trends, with Dow futures down 0.14%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.54%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.15%.
BIT night trading data shows that US stocks have collectively risen in night trading, with storage, optical communication, and AI infrastructure still being the focal point of capital pursuit. SanDisk continued to rise by 6% in night trading, storage ETF DRAM rose by 4.69%, while Micron Technology, Western Digital, and SK Hynix ADRs rose by about 4%. Last Friday, Applied Optoelectronics, which surged 15.53%, continued to rise more than 3% in night trading; Corning, Marvell Technology, Coherent, and others all rose over 3%.
The rise in SanDisk was mainly driven by investors’ newly proposed double-digit revenue growth targets, a 100% excess cash return plan, and a signed $93.9 billion long-term agreement; JPMorgan has upgraded its rating to "overweight".
Tonight's market focus will be on the sustainability of individual stocks in the storage sector and optical communication sector, as well as whether news related to Broadcom, Oracle, Alphabet, and AMD in the context of AI financing will continue to trigger credit repricing.
Earnings Support Index, AI Financing Starts to Be Questioned by Bond Market
Last Friday, the three major US stock indices closed slightly lower, with the Dow down 0.2%, S&P down 0.17%, and Nasdaq down 0.28%; weekly S&P and Nasdaq still closed higher, while Russell 2000 recorded a weekly gain and set a new closing record. US retail sales unexpectedly fell by 0.6% in July, marking the largest decline in over a year, combined with previous mild CPI and PPI, leading to a significant retreat in the market's expectations for a September interest rate hike, with bets flat rising to about 70%. This week, the US Treasury Department will issue $16 billion of 20-year bonds, with the pre-issue yield expected to be around 5.27%; if it settles near this level, it will set the highest record since the resumption of issuance in 2020.
The S&P 500 index saw a year-on-year earnings growth of 31% in the second quarter, greatly exceeding the market expectation of 23%, pushing the price-earnings ratio down from 26 times at the beginning of the year to below 22 times. JPMorgan has raised its target price for the S&P 500 index to 8000 points by the end of 2026, believing that AI investments have transformed into substantial cloud revenues and profits.
Driven by AI demand for HBM and DRAM capacity, SanDisk rose by 7.39%, and Micron Technology received a rating upgrade. AMD rose by 6.5% due to completing a $4.75 billion bond issuance and cooperating with Google to develop the next generation TPU, earning it a selection as a top stock by Bank of America. Broadcom’s stock price fell by 5.94%, reflecting market concerns over AI computing power rental residual value guarantees, having retreated over 20% from its June highs.
Additionally, as AI infrastructure continues to spill over, Applied Optoelectronics surged by 15.53%, and cloud infrastructure provider Nebius recorded a weekly gain of 47.73%. Nvidia fell slightly by 0.06%, revealing it holds about $21 billion in SpaceX shares and about $30 billion in Intel shares. Affected by the news of the White House planning to impose tariffs on imported drones, drone concept stocks experienced a collective surge, with Unusual Machines soaring by 25.04%. Furthermore, Reddit's stock price rose by approximately 12.63% as it will be included in the S&P 500 index before trading opens on August 18.
Cryptocurrency-related stocks fell. According to BIT US Stocks, Coinbase dropped 3.53%, Robinhood fell 3.83%, Strategy declined 4.18%, and Circle after rising for 8 days saw a pullback of 5.01%.
Mining companies saw recovery, with Hut 8 rising 3% after a drop of 8.62%, CleanSpark rising 4.95%, Cipher Digital rising 7.43%, TeraWulf rising 6.56%, Bitdeer rising 4.22%, and Canaan Creative rising 7.48%.
Nikkei Rises Moderately, Korea Closed, Zhonggang Technology and Storage Lead Gains
Japan's GDP growth for the second quarter was an annualized 1.1%, below expectations, reinforcing the market's speculation that the Bank of Japan will not aggressively hike interest rates in the short term. The Nikkei 225 rose about 0.74%, while the TOPIX index fell slightly. Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to a nearly 30-year high, under pressure from fiscal and potential interest rate hike expectations on the bond market. The Korean market is closed due to the public holiday for Liberation Day, with delayed market reactions from KOSPI, reducing semiconductor sector sentiment temporarily; pricing related to Samsung and SK Hynix will be postponed until Tuesday.
China and Hong Kong markets performed brightly, with the Hang Seng index significantly rising by 1.34% and the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.41%.
The semiconductor sector has become one of the strongest themes, Changxin Technology rose by 12%, breaking through $61, setting a new stock price high since listing. The RMB spot exchange rate has also risen above 6.74, reaching the highest level since February 2023, providing extra support for risk assets. Additionally, A-share "bull" concept stocks were briefly active due to the animated film "Bull is Coming," but were seen more as speculative trading. Yushu Technology released a video of its "Superman" robot, claiming it can jump 2 meters high on the spot, with a top speed of 12.66m/s. The market views this as a signal accelerating the humanoid robot industry, with related components, controllers, and complete machines receiving attention. Hyperliquid data shows that Yushu Technology's Unitree is approaching $100.
Hong Kong stocks related to optical communication surged in the afternoon, with Haiguang Chip, Changfei Optical Fiber, and Zhongji Xuchuang among the top gainers. GF Securities predicts that about 38 companies are expected to gain Hong Kong Stock Connect qualifications in September; Tensyn Smart Chip may be included in the Hang Seng Technology Index; historical data shows that the inclusion dynamics of technology companies tend to start trading before they officially take effect, with companies averaging about a 9.9% rise from T-30 to T-10 before inclusion, but often experiencing short-term profit-taking afterward.
Next Points of Attention:
August 17 (Monday)
The Korean stock market is closed: trading is paused due to the public holiday for Liberation Day. The short-term liquidity of the Asia-Pacific semiconductor supply chain is expected to decrease, and reactions to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will be delayed until Tuesday.
The central bank will conduct overnight reverse repurchase operations from August 17 to 19: the daily operation amount will not exceed 600 billion yuan, using a fixed rate and quantity bidding method. If short-end liquidity injection significantly expands, it will ease the funding pressure, providing support for the bond market, interbank rates, and high-dividend assets.
August 18 (Tuesday)
Reddit will officially be included in the S&P 500 index: passive buying by index funds may continue to support RDDT's short-term performance, but trading focus will shift to fundamentals after inclusion, especially advertisement growth, AI data licensing income, and user activity.
Xiaomi Group (19:30 conference call), Baidu (20:00 conference call), China Unicom, and Zhaoyi Innovation earnings: Xiaomi will focus on smartphone high-endization, automobile business gross margin, delivery rhythm, and AI investments; Baidu will focus on AI cloud, Wenxin large model commercialization, search advertisement recovery, and autonomous driving progress; Zhaoyi Innovation will assess domestic storage cycles and MCU demand; China Unicom will observe cloud-network integration, computing networks, and dividend stability.
August 19 (Wednesday)
The US imposes tariffs on some products from Canada: The White House announced on July 20 to impose an additional 50% tariff on certain Canadian products such as dairy, alcohol, clothing, and furniture, citing "discriminatory measures" taken by Canada against US automotive trade.
The Seoul AI Summit will be held from August 19 to 21: tech leaders from Google DeepMind, Google Cloud, Microsoft Research, Nvidia, LG AI Research, and Hyundai will attend. The market focuses on new cooperation in large models, AI cloud, autonomous driving, AI chips, and enterprise applications, which may catalyze the global AI software, cloud computing, chip, and robotics sectors.
The World Robotics Conference will be held in Beijing from August 19 to 23: humanoid robots and industrial robot solutions from companies such as Yushu, UBTECH, Siasun, Galaxy Universal, and Tiangong will be showcased. If production progress, order realization, or cost reductions exceed expectations, the A-share robotic chain's decelerators, servos, motors, sensors, controllers, and complete machine manufacturers may gain sentiment catalysts.
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