The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting have once again focused the global market's attention on U.S. monetary policy.

Unlike the previous market focus on "when to cut interest rates," this set of minutes reveals a new change that warrants attention: an increasing number of Federal Reserve officials are beginning to worry that U.S. inflationary pressures are no longer solely sourced from the labor market but are entering a new phase driven by AI investment, energy prices, and tariffs.

Notably, investment in artificial intelligence has become an important variable repeatedly mentioned in the minutes for the first time. This indicates that the Federal Reserve's framework for judging future inflation is undergoing new changes.

1. Maintaining interest rates unchanged, but clear internal divisions have emerged

In the June meeting, the Federal Reserve unanimously decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged.

However, the minutes show that there are significant internal divisions regarding the future policy path within the committee.

Some members believe there is still reason to raise rates further to ensure inflation can consistently fall back to the 2% target; others prefer to continue observing data over the next few months before deciding whether to take further action.

It is noteworthy that even the most hawkish officials did not advocate for an immediate rate hike during the June meeting. This suggests that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to tighten policy but is more concerned about whether inflation will rise again over the next few quarters.

In other words, the real issue is no longer "whether to raise rates in June," but "whether we need to re-enter a rate-hiking cycle in the future."

2. AI investment has become an important source of inflation for the first time

Compared to the discussions of previous years that focused on employment, wage growth, and consumer demand, the biggest change in this set of minutes is the first-time categorization of AI investment as a potential significant factor driving future inflation.

Several officials pointed out that U.S. tech companies are continuing to expand AI infrastructure, including large capital investments in data centers, GPU servers, electrical systems, and network facilities.

These investments are stimulating demand for equipment, construction materials, and energy on one hand, while also driving up labor costs in related industries on the other.

The minutes suggest that the investment boom brought about by AI infrastructure construction could become a new source of price pressure in the future.

This judgment is highly consistent with observations made in the market in recent years.

In the past year, tech giants including Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet have announced capital expenditure plans worth hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars, with substantial funds flowing into data center construction, chip procurement, and grid upgrades.

These investments have not only stimulated the semiconductor industry but have also led to rapid demand growth across various sectors such as power, construction, and engineering equipment.

If this round of AI capital expenditures continues for several years, the resulting expansion of demand may offset some of the cooling effects of high interest rates on the economy.

3. Energy prices have once again become an important risk

In addition to AI investments, Federal Reserve officials have also expressed renewed concerns about energy prices.

Recently, international energy markets have experienced significant volatility due to geopolitical factors.

Historical experience shows that rising energy prices not only directly push up gasoline, electricity, and transportation costs, but are also likely to gradually transmit through the supply chain to food, manufacturing, and services.

The minutes indicate that if energy prices remain elevated, the pace at which inflation falls could again slow.

For monetary policy, this means the Federal Reserve must exercise greater caution.

Because increases in energy prices usually represent external shocks, relying solely on interest rate tools is unlikely to resolve the issue directly; however, if this leads to a resurgence of inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve may still be forced to maintain high interest rates for a longer period.

4. The impact of tariffs is re-entering policy discussions

The minutes also reflect a new judgment from the Federal Reserve regarding the price impacts of tariffs.

A year ago, most officials still believed that price increases prompted by tariffs were one-off factors with limited long-term implications for inflation.

However, today, more and more members believe that as new trade policies gradually take effect, tariffs could continue to push up corporate procurement costs and further translate to end-consumer prices.

More importantly, in the context of a resilient labor market and active corporate investment, companies have a stronger ability to pass on costs.

This means the cost pressures brought by tariffs might not dissipate as quickly as before, but evolve into a more long-term and widespread source of inflation.

5. Why is the Federal Reserve increasingly concerned about "sticky inflation"?

In the minutes, several officials mentioned a key term—price pressures are becoming more widespread.

In the past, U.S. inflation was more concentrated in a few categories of goods.

Now, as prices for an increasing number of goods and services persistently rise, inflation has evolved from a localized phenomenon into a more general price increase.

At the same time, the U.S. job market remains quite resilient, with consumer spending not showing significant cooling.

When AI investments, energy prices, tariffs, and service sector demand coexist, inflation may form a stronger "stickiness."

"Sticky inflation" refers to a situation where, after price increases, it is difficult for prices to rapidly decline even if demand slows slightly.

This is also why increasingly more Federal Reserve officials are emphasizing that continued waiting could mean that stronger policy actions may be needed in the future.

6. The market has begun to readjust interest rate cut expectations

Following the release of the minutes, financial markets quickly adjusted their assessments of the future interest rate path.

Many institutions believe that the number of potential interest rate cuts this year may further decrease, while the probability of another rate hike has increased.

Reuters believes the Federal Reserve is entering a new phase of "data-driven policy."

The Wall Street Journal has noted that if inflation remains high over the next few months, the Federal Reserve will have to reconsider tightening policies further.

Some analysts even state that the current market discussions have shifted from "when to cut rates" to "whether to hike rates again."

Of course, most members are still inclined to continue monitoring data changes over the next few months, so short-term policies are likely to remain unchanged.

7. AI will push up inflation, but it may ultimately lower inflation

However, it should be noted that the impact of AI on the economy is not solely about raising prices.

In the short term, large-scale infrastructure construction will indeed raise investment, energy, and equipment demand, creating price pressures.

But in the long term, AI’s ability to enhance production efficiency, optimize supply chains, and reduce corporate operational costs may also become a crucial force in suppressing inflation.

Institutions like the International Monetary Fund and Goldman Sachs believe that as AI technology matures, its effect on boosting labor productivity is expected to gradually emerge, potentially becoming a new supply-side driver for the global economy in the future.

Therefore, the current concerns of the Federal Reserve are more about the short-term demand expansion brought by AI investment, rather than denying AI's positive effects on long-term economic growth.

Conclusion

The biggest signal conveyed by these minutes is not whether to raise rates immediately, but that the Federal Reserve's understanding of future sources of inflation is changing.

If inflation in the U.S. over the past few years primarily derived from supply-demand imbalances post-pandemic, then the factors influencing price movements in the future will become more complex: continuous AI investment expansion, energy price fluctuations, tariff policy adjustments, and labor market resilience may all collectively shape a new inflation landscape.

For investors, this means that the market's sensitivity to every inflation data point, employment data, and tech companies' capital expenditure plans will further increase in the future. The Federal Reserve's next policy choices will also depend more on whether these variables continue to drive price pressures.

It is foreseeable that discussions around "whether AI will change the U.S. inflation and interest rate cycle" may just be beginning.

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