1. Macroeconomic Core Negative (Dominating Current Trend)
- The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield broke 5.19%, reaching a new high before the 2007 financial crisis; Traders expect an 80% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates before the end of 2026, the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, putting pressure on global risk assets such as gold and Bitcoin.
- Impact: In a high interest rate environment, funds are flowing back from risk assets to U.S. Treasuries, the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks and gold has further increased, and the short-term rebound space has been severely compressed, making the "weak rebound, easy to fall again" pattern clear.
2. Fund and Market Structure Signals
- Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of over $1 billion in a single week, the largest single-week outflow since 2026; the average weekly trading volume of the top ten digital assets before 2026 is less than half of that in 2025, indicating a significant contraction in market participation and a lack of new funding support.
- Derivatives market shows strong bearish momentum: since mid-May, over 150,000 people have been liquidated, amounting to $1.8 billion; there was heavy sell pressure of $1.1 billion when Bitcoin fell below $77,000, and the selling pressure has not been fully released.
3. Regulatory Dynamics
- Domestic: On May 18, the China Internet Finance Association and two other associations again jointly voiced their strong opposition to speculation in virtual currency trading and warned of related risks; from 2026 to 2028, a national special campaign to rectify virtual currencies is being continuously promoted, targeting trading, payment, publicity and other aspects throughout the entire chain.
- U.S.: The CLARITY Act has progressed to the markup voting stage of the Senate Banking Committee, the Act prohibits stablecoins from offering interest on deposits but allows for incentives, overall is relatively neutral, with limited impact on the market in the short term.
Contract Strategy
BTC
- Key Levels: - Upper Resistance: 77200-77450 (short-term strong resistance), 79000 (bull-bear watershed)
- Lower Support: 76000 (short-term support), 72960 (mid-term lifeline)
- Trading Suggestions: 1. Lightly short at the 77200-77450 range on a rebound, stop loss at 78000, first target 76000, increase position if it breaks to 73000. 2. If it directly breaks below 76000, increase short position near 76500 on a rebound, stop loss at 77000. 3. Long positions only after a clear stabilization signal appears near 73000 (such as a volume increase bullish candle, long lower shadow) with a light trial position, stop loss at 72000, target 75000.
ETH
- Key Levels: - Upper Resistance: 2145 (short-term strong resistance), 2200 (bull-bear watershed)
- Lower Support: 2090 (short-term support), 2000 (mid-term lifeline)
- Trading Suggestions: 1. Lightly short at the 2140-2150 range on a rebound, stop loss at 2180, first target 2090, if it breaks, look at 2000. 2. Long positions only after stabilizing near $2000, with a light trial position, stop loss at $1970, target 2100.
【We invite you to join the cryptocurrency circle exchange group】
24-hour Tencent Meeting: 549-938-1356
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
