Author: DWF
Translation: Jae, PANews
Key Points
• Token: High valuations combined with declining liquidity are hurting investor confidence, with funds flowing into stocks.
• Tokens and stocks have similar upside potential, but their risk characteristics are entirely different: Tokens peak faster (30 days) and face greater volatility; stocks maintain more robust returns over a longer time span.
• Stocks enjoy a higher valuation premium compared to tokens: This premium can be attributed to institutional access requirements, potential for index inclusion, and richer trading strategies supported by stocks.
• Price-to-Sales (P/S) provides a useful benchmark for evaluating companies, but valuation divergence reflects the importance of other factors: These include regulatory moats, revenue diversification, shareholder value, and industry sentiment.
• As consolidation accelerates, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity has reached a five-year high: Acquisition capabilities are proving faster than building in-house, while regulatory compliance is driving strategic acquisitions.
Current State of Token Issuance
The cryptocurrency industry has reached a turning point. Billions of dollars are flowing in, institutional interest is at a peak, and the regulatory environment is becoming increasingly friendly. However, for builders and users, the situation is more dire than ever. The widening gap between institutional capital inflow and the crypto-native spirit is part of a larger problem. The original decentralized spirit and cyberpunk-like experimentation seem to be fading, replaced by the entry of centralized entities and their significant impacts.
Cryptocurrencies have thrived in a high-risk, casino-like environment, and as token performance significantly declines, this environment is gradually being stripped away. This has also been significantly affected by predatory event-driven actions impacting retail investors, leading to liquidity exiting the market.
According to a report by Memento Research, over 80% of tokens issued in 2025 are currently priced below their TGE prices. The projects are particularly hard hit due to the difficulty of justifying high valuations and sustainability, manifested as high volatility and a general lack of demand for tokens. Upside potential is also becoming scarce, as most tokens face significant selling pressure since the TGE due to factors including early profit-taking, lack of confidence in the product, or poor tokenomics (airdrops, CEXs, etc.). This has dampened interest from investors and retail participants, while events like "10/10" have exacerbated capital outflow from the crypto market and raised questions about the core infrastructure of the industry.
Rise of IPOs
Meanwhile, in traditional finance, IPOs have generated strong appeal among cryptocurrency companies, with multiple high-profile listings emerging in 2025, and more companies are submitting IPO applications. Data shows that the amount raised by crypto IPOs in 2025 increased 48 times over 2024, raising over $14.6 billion. M&A transactions also exhibited a similar growth rate, with leading companies seeking to diversify their product offerings, which we will explore further below. Overall, the outstanding performance of these companies demonstrates strong demand for exposure to digital assets. This trend is likely to accelerate in 2026.
Where is Liquidity Flowing?
Over the past year, several high-profile IPOs and ICOs have raised substantial amounts of capital. The table below shows the amount raised and the initial valuation for each company.
It can be seen that IPOs and ICOs have relatively close valuations. Some ICOs (like Plasma) are intentionally priced below institutional investor valuations to provide greater upside potential and access opportunities for retail investors. On average, IPOs have a public offering ratio between 12-20%, while ICOs range from 7-12%. World Liberty Finance is a notable exception, with a sale ratio exceeding 35% of the total supply.
By analyzing the performance of ICOs and IPOs, it is evident that tokens typically exhibit greater short-term volatility and shorter peak times (30 days). In contrast, stocks tend to realize steady growth over longer periods. Notably, despite this, the two are similar in terms of upside potential.
CRCL and XPL are exceptions, experiencing significant gains from the outset and providing investors with 10-25 times returns. However, their performances still follow the aforementioned trends. For instance, XPL retracted 65% from its peak within two weeks, while CRCL steadily climbed during this period.
Revenue: Evaluating Stock Premiums
Further analysis of revenue data shows that stocks typically command higher premiums compared to tokens, ranging from 7-40 times for stocks and 2-16 times for tokens. This can be attributed to enhanced liquidity brought about by various factors:
Institutional Access: Although positive sentiment toward incorporating digital assets into balance sheets is growing, it is still limited to authorized funds (especially pension or endowment funds). Through IPOs, companies gain access to this substantial pool of institutional capital.
Index Inclusion: The growth momentum of public markets far exceeds that of on-chain markets. Coinbase joined the S&P 500 index in May 2025, becoming the first crypto company to be included. This could lead to accumulation and buy pressure from index tracking funds/ETFs.
Alternative Strategies: The stock market can operate a more diversified set of institutional strategies, including options and leverage, while on-chain tokens are often limited by liquidity and counterparty availability.
Overall, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio reflects the valuation of a company based on revenue over the past 12 months and helps determine whether it is undervalued or overvalued compared to competitors. However, investor sentiment factors, which transcend mere numbers, are not accounted for. Factors to consider when evaluating stocks/tokens include:
Moat and Diversification: This is crucial in the rapidly evolving digital asset industry. Premiums are being paid for licenses and regulatory compliance, while a diversified business portfolio enhances the core business's value proposition, exceeding mere revenue figures.
For example, Figure has launched its own RWA lending pool for retail and institutional investors and is the first company to receive SEC approval for issuing interest-bearing stablecoins ($YLDS). Bullish is a regulated exchange but also owns other businesses like CoinDesk, which adds value beyond trade services. All these factors could lead to extremely high premiums.
In contrast, eToro seems "undervalued" due to its extremely low P/S, but deeper analysis reveals that its revenue and costs are rising in tandem, which is not an ideal scenario. Additionally, the company focuses solely on providing trading services, has limited differentiation, and low margins. Thus, building a defensive moat and business diversification is what investors prioritize.
Shareholder Value: Returning capital to investors through buybacks is common in both stocks and tokens, especially for revenue-generating companies.
For example, Hyperliquid has one of the most aggressive buyback programs, using 97% of its income for buybacks. Since its inception, the support fund has repurchased over 40.5 million HYPE tokens, accounting for more than 4% of the total supply. This aggressive buyback undoubtedly impacts prices, as long as revenues remain stable and the industry continues to have growth potential, it can boost investor confidence. This helps improve the P/S ratio, but given the team's strong backing, this does not necessarily mean the token is "overvalued."
Industry Sentiment: A high-growth industry driven by institutional or regulatory events will naturally enjoy a premium as investors seek exposure.
For instance, shortly after Circle went public in June 2025, its stock price skyrocketed, with the P/S ratio peaking at about 27 times. This can be attributed to the passage of the GENIUS Act shortly after Circle's IPO, which is a framework aimed at legitimizing the adoption and issuance of stablecoins. As one of the leading players in stablecoin infrastructure, Circle is set to be a major beneficiary.
Mergers and Acquisitions: Major Consolidation
Reports indicate that crypto M&A activity reached a five-year high in 2025, driven by the push from traditional finance (TradFi) enterprises and a more favorable regulatory sentiment. After a series of crypto-friendly policies were implemented by the Trump administration, Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) surged, as holding digital asset exposure on balance sheets became less controversial. Companies are also shifting their focus to acquisitions, as it is a more efficient way to gain specific licenses for compliance. Overall, the establishment of a regulatory framework has paved the way for accelerated M&A.
Looking back over the past year, the number of transactions across all tracks has significantly increased. The top three categories prioritized by institutions are:
Investment & Trading: Including trading settlement infrastructure, tokenization, derivatives, lending, and DATs.
Brokers & Exchanges: Focused on regulated platforms for digital assets.
Stablecoins & Payments: Including inflow and outflow channels, infrastructure and applications.
These three categories accounted for over 96% of the transaction value in 2025, totaling over $42.5 billion.
Top acquirers include Coinbase, Kraken, and Ripple, which are all involved in multiple categories. Notably, by acquiring both traditional and innovative decentralized applications (dApps), Coinbase is solidifying its ambition to become an "everything app" and bring on-chain applications to the mainstream. This may stem from intensified competition among exchanges and the pursuit of becoming an "everything app" to capture their own crowd and traffic.
Other companies like FalconX and Moonpay are doubling down in their respective fields by making complementary acquisitions to offer comprehensive services.
What’s Next for "Token" Issuance?
Despite the current market conditions and sentiment, we believe that 2026 will continue to bring many positives for the digital asset space. We expect more companies to prepare for IPOs, which would be a net positive for the industry. It provides greater accessibility and offers exposure to capital and investor pools, thus enlarging the overall pie.
Companies waiting for IPOs include:
Kraken: Submitted S-1 registration statement to the SEC in November 2025, likely to IPO in early 2026.
Consensys: Reportedly collaborating with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, planning to go public in mid-2026.
Ledger: Aiming for a $4 billion IPO, working with Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and Barclays.
Animoca: Plans to go public on Nasdaq via a reverse merger with Currency Group Inc. in 2026.
Bithumb: Aiming for a 2026 listing on KOSDAQ, with a valuation of $1 billion, underwritten by Samsung Securities.
The future is not about choosing between traditional finance and crypto-native innovation, but rather about integration. For builders and investors, this means prioritizing fundamentals and creating useful products that generate real, sustainable income. A shift towards long-term thinking may induce some turbulence, but those who adapt will seize the next wave of value creation.
Cryptocurrency is dead, long live cryptocurrency.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
