MicroStrategy and Harvard University, two major institutions, are increasing their positions against the trend. Is this bottom accumulation or a high-risk trap?

MicroStrategy purchased 8,178 bitcoins for $835.6 million, locking in an average price of $102,171. Although the current price has fallen below $90,000, resulting in an unrealized loss for this batch, the company's overall holding has an average cost of about $74,433, still in a profitable state. It is estimated that 40% of its holdings were acquired at prices below this cost.

Harvard Management Company disclosed in its 13F filing on September 30 that it holds 6.8 million shares of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), valued at $442.9 million, a 200% increase from the previous quarter, making it the highest valued holding among its U.S. listed stocks. This institution, which manages $50 billion in assets, has increased its position during the downturn, highlighting its long-term optimism for digital assets.

The increase in positions by these two institutions coincides with a deep market adjustment: financing rates have fallen into negative territory, open interest has decreased, and short-term holders (wallets that received coins within 155 days) have experienced "on-chain surrender," while retail investors have concentrated their sell-offs due to leveraged liquidations and realized losses.

The monthly market value of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has shrunk by $2.57 billion, marking the largest decline since its launch, with capital outflows concentrated during U.S. trading hours, further pressuring prices. This pattern of retail sell-offs and institutional buy-ins represents a typical transfer of funds from weaker investors to stronger institutions.

On-chain data shows that whale wallets holding over 1,000 bitcoins have continued to increase their holdings as smaller wallets exit, consistent with early capital redistribution patterns during historical pullbacks.

However, it is important to note that wallet labeling relies on blockchain forensics and exchange tags, lacking KYC identity verification, which limits the accuracy of holding data.

CryptoQuant data indicates that the derivatives market is showing signs of deleveraging, with a decrease in open interest and a shift to negative funding, primarily due to long-term holders closing positions rather than whales actively withdrawing.

Nevertheless, the scale of institutional buying is insufficient to offset the pressure from ETF capital outflows. While the increases by MicroStrategy and Harvard are significant, they cannot hedge against the $2.57 billion in ETF redemptions, and distinguishing between short-term accumulation and a bull market trap is challenging.

If ETF capital outflows continue until the end of the year or if macroeconomic risks escalate, even with increased holdings from sovereign nations and corporations, the liquidation price of Bitcoin may still decline further.

MicroStrategy can dilute costs over the long term through its financing strategy, and Harvard has a ten-year investment cycle, making quarterly pullbacks have limited impact on it. However, retail and leveraged traders lack such buffers.

The ultimate nature of this capital redistribution remains to be seen: if subsequent ETF capital outflows stabilize and institutional spot demand continues, it may signal that the bottom is near; if capital outflows and macro pressures intensify, the current increases may only represent a short-term respite.

With Bitcoin falling below $90,000, it has filtered out long-term investors who can withstand volatility from short-term sensitive speculators, and the final answer will be revealed in the capital flows over the next month.

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