If you can track the movements of these insiders, you can essentially bet on the correct outcomes with near certainty.
Written by: The Smart Ape
Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
How to Find Polymarket Insiders
Polymarket is a large and rapidly growing market, with trading volume exceeding $15 billion since its launch.
Fascinatingly, users can employ many advanced strategies to profit, such as arbitrage, providing liquidity, discount capture, high-frequency trading, and more.
It remains an early and evolving market, now entering a regulatory phase, which means there are still many opportunities.
But there is one method that is essentially still underutilized: insider analysis.
Polymarket is an open platform, meaning anyone can create a market on anything. Some markets are entirely based on public information, such as "Who will win the next World Cup?", while others involve events where a small group of people already knows the answer, such as "Who will win the next Nobel Peace Prize?"
In the Nobel Prize market, the committee responsible for selecting the Nobel laureates clearly knows the results earlier than anyone else, and some of them may quietly use this information to trade on Polymarket.
If you can track the movements of these insiders, you can essentially bet on the correct outcomes with near certainty, as insiders know exactly what will happen.
Another example is "Monad airdrop before October 31."
The project team and those closely related to the project already know whether it will happen, so anyone able to track these wallets has a significant advantage.
There are several ways to detect potential insider activity.
The simplest method is to use Hashdive(dot)com, which is currently the best Polymarket analysis tool, providing extensive metrics and data for each market.
First, select a market where insider activity may exist, such as the monad airdrop.
Click into that market, and you will see a detailed page with analysis and metrics.
Scroll down to the "Possible Insider Traders" section.
Taking the first trader on the list as an example:
He invested $100,000 betting "no," and this is the only market he is trading in.
This is suspicious; a new wallet investing a large sum in a single market.
This person is likely a member of the Monad team or closely related to them.
The goal is not to focus on a single trader but to analyze the collective activity of the group.
Some may be genuine insiders, while others may just be following the trend; the key is the overall pattern.
In this case, almost all top traders are betting "no."
The top eight wallets are all on the same side, each using new wallets and holding large positions in only one or two markets.
This is a clear signal: insiders seem confident that there will be no Monad airdrop before October 30.
Currently, the trading price for the "no" side is about $0.83, which means there is a potential for nearly 17% guaranteed returns by October 30.
Some markets do not have a "Possible Insider Traders" section, which is normal.
For example, the "Bolivia Presidential Election" cannot truly have insiders because, in a closely contested race, no one really knows how people will vote.
So the key is to choose markets where insider information may exist and track insider movements as early as possible.
The earlier you detect these movements, the higher your potential profits.
If you wait too long, more insiders will enter, prices will change, and your profit margins will shrink.
Your advantage entirely depends on whether you can spot them early.
Nobel Prize Case
A prime example of this strategy in practice is the market:
"2025 Nobel Peace Prize Winner."
Some traders clearly received information 9 hours before the official announcement.
In just seconds, Maria Machado's winning probability surged from 3.6% to 70%, well before the results were made public.
This is clearly an insider move; someone leaked the decision in advance.
Some traders achieved 20x returns, either by following the insider pattern or because they themselves were insiders:
Debased turned $2,500 into $75,000
CannonFodders turned $900 into $30,000
Gopfan2 turned $700 into $26,000
They all entered immediately when Maria Machado's winning probability began to mysteriously soar.
These individuals may be members of the Nobel Committee, closely related to the committee, or even investigative journalists who discovered the leak.
In any case, the facts are clear: some people had reliable information 9 hours before the official announcement.
When the winning probability on the Polymarket market surged from 3% to 70% in minutes, it is undeniable that insiders were at work.
Norwegian authorities even launched an insider trading investigation into the case.
Reports indicate they are focusing on wallet "6741," which bet $50,000 just hours before the results were announced.
That wallet had only traded once and only in this market, which immediately raised eyebrows.
Why Having Insiders is Actually a Good Thing
At first, you might think that insiders are detrimental to Polymarket, but in reality, they help it achieve its true purpose.
The true mission of Polymarket is not about making or losing money,
but revealing the collective truth about future events.
The more insiders there are, the more accurate the prices become,
and the information provided by the market becomes more reliable.
Take the Nobel Prize as an example.
I don’t need to wait for the official announcement; Polymarket has already told me who the winner is.
In this sense, Polymarket is ahead of all major media, which is precisely why it is so powerful.
Insiders with reliable information help correct pricing errors and indirectly convey this knowledge to everyone else through price movements.
This is a highly efficient information dissemination mechanism.
Without insiders, prices only reflect opinions and guesses.
With them, prices reflect hidden but real facts.
This is why some economists, like the creator of the "prediction market" concept, believe insider trading is beneficial in this context:
It narrows the gap between belief and reality.
It also creates a truth incentive system:
If insiders trade based on real information, they profit.
If they are wrong or lie, they lose.
There is no incentive to spread false news because they will pay the price for being wrong.
Most importantly, insiders here do not harm others.
This is not like the token market, where insiders sell tokens to retail traders.
Prediction markets are voluntary, and traders are aware of the risks of information asymmetry.
It is a probability game, not a long-term investment.
Therefore, as long as the rules are clear, insiders can improve the accuracy of predictions without causing systemic unfairness.
Tools to Track Them
Here are some of the most useful tools for analyzing Polymarket data.
This list is not exhaustive, and new tools are constantly emerging.
Dune Dashboards: Dozens of Polymarket dashboards, some are global (trading volume, users, trades), others are specialized (insiders, airdrop trackers, whales, etc.).
PolymarketAnalytics(dot)com: One of the most comprehensive tools. Allows you to track market traders in real-time, discover top alerts, whales, smart money, and analyze performance.
Hashdive(dot)com: Another powerful analysis platform. Each market page contains in-depth metrics, along with a new "insiders" section to help you identify potential insider traders.
@polyburg: Tracks the movements of "smart money" before it becomes mainstream on Polymarket.
@Polysights: Aggregates real-time and historical data and applies AI/ML layers to generate advanced analysis, trends, arbitrage ideas, and alerts.
@whalewatchpoly: Monitors large transactions and well-known wallets in real-time.
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