🤔 "If the HYPE token continues to perform poorly in the coming months, it will be an excellent opportunity for large-scale buying and building positions."

Written by: Duo Nine

Translated by: Saoirse, Foresight News

Since the launch of Aster, the HYPE token has plummeted by 27% in just five days. Worse still, given the imminent large-scale unlocking of HYPE tokens, its subsequent performance remains bleak.

Coincidence or not?

Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) has been promoting the Aster project for months and has long chosen the strategic timing to launch an offensive against Hyperliquid. This article will analyze why he chose to act at this moment.

First, let’s look at the impact of this event. As shown in the chart, before the launch of the Aster token, the price of Hyperliquid was continuously hitting new highs. However, after Zhao Changpeng tweeted about Aster, this upward momentum suddenly came to a halt.

What was the result? The HYPE token dropped by 27% in five days.

In contrast, Aster's performance has been completely different. Since I posted the entry signal in the community, its price has tripled. As shown in the chart, I have already taken some profits — holding from $0.06 all the way to $2.1, achieving a threefold profit in just five days.

As mentioned last Sunday, Hyperliquid has been a "thorn in the side" of Binance for months, posing a systemic threat. The rapid rise of Hyperliquid has impacted Binance's market position.

As soon as Zhao Changpeng was released from prison, he immediately set out to address this "problem." Their plan was exposed as early as June this year, and everyone can check the timestamp of the following post on the X platform.

Clearly, the key issue is not whether Binance will take action, but when they will act. In the past, they attempted to destroy the Hyperliquid protocol treasury through liquidation but failed. So, they turned to Plan B: launching Aster.

Why choose to act now?

Zhao Changpeng is no novice in the cryptocurrency field, and timing is crucial. Previously, he severely impacted FTX with just one tweet, and the timing was impeccable. The launch of Aster is also not coincidental — it is perfectly timed just two months before the large-scale unlocking of HYPE tokens by Hyperliquid.

In late November 2025, Hyperliquid will begin to unlock 237.8 million HYPE tokens linearly over 24 months. If calculated at $50 per token, this means the total value of the tokens unlocked by the team could reach $11.9 billion, equivalent to nearly $500 million in nominal value entering the market each month. Currently, there is no buyback mechanism that can absorb such massive selling pressure.

The above data is provided by Maelstrom. The head of Maelstrom is Arthur Hayes, who is also a key participant in the Ethena/ENA/USDe project — Binance is a key partner in that project.

Coincidentally, Arthur sold his HYPE tokens this week and was candid about it. He explained that due to the aforementioned unlocking plan, the price of HYPE tokens is likely to crash. Meanwhile, the price of Aster continues to rise.

Is this really a coincidence? Unlikely.

Zhao Changpeng (CZ), Binance, and its affiliates are essentially taking advantage of the current weakness of HYPE. Even if the Hyperliquid team chooses not to sell their allocated tokens, Zhao Changpeng does not care about that at all.

What he aims to do is create the illusion of "HYPE's strength being weak," while simultaneously launching a more attractive alternative — stabilizing retail sentiment by pushing the price of Aster to new highs. With tight control over the supply of Aster tokens and substantial capital reserves (billions of dollars), his strategy has been quite successful so far.

With this move, market momentum has clearly shifted towards Aster. The question now is whether this momentum can hold and continue. With Zhao Changpeng (CZ) and his affiliates backing it, the answer is likely affirmative.

Considering the above situation, it will be difficult for Hyperliquid to achieve market dominance in the coming months — especially noting that Aster is not the only exchange trying to eat into its market share. Another strong competitor is Lighter.

Lighter implements a zero-fee policy for retail investors, while Aster is backed by industry giants from the Binance ecosystem. From any perspective, this indicates that Hyperliquid has entered the top tier of the industry — after all, its current competitors are the top players in the field. Although the current situation is tough, it also lays the groundwork for a rebound in the future.

The emergence of Hyperliquid is also not coincidental; to some extent, it is a direct product of the FTX collapse — providing users with an alternative to centralized exchanges. From this perspective, Zhao Changpeng's actions to destroy FTX indirectly led to the birth of Hyperliquid. This undoubtedly forms a rather dramatic cycle.

In the cryptocurrency field, as long as there are platforms that can provide better services, market liquidity and user attention can shift in an instant. Hyperliquid is currently facing this impact, but by 2026, when the market share battle among decentralized exchanges (DEX) calms down, I believe the HYPE token will regain its dominant position. Unless a black swan event occurs, its development trajectory is unlikely to deviate significantly.

While HYPE is not a catastrophic project like FTX (the cryptocurrency exchange bankruptcy incident) or Luna (the algorithmic stablecoin collapse project), it does exhibit a "reflexive cycle" (a closed loop where price and market behavior influence each other), with the cycle logic as follows:

HYPE price drops → future airdrop value diminishes → traders' motivation to trade on Hyperliquid (HL, presumed to be the platform issuing $HYPE) decreases → traders withdraw and pull out funds → open interest (OI) and trading volume decrease, leading to lower fees for buybacks → $HYPE price further declines.

If the HYPE token continues to perform poorly in the coming months, it will be an excellent opportunity for large-scale buying and building positions. The HYPE token has previously experienced a significant correction (a drop of 72%), and a similar situation may occur again, providing investors with an ideal entry point.

Regardless, the cryptocurrency market is always full of opportunities and unexpected turns, and it is not uncommon to see capital doubling, tripling, or even increasing tenfold in the short term — just like the performance of Aster this time.

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