Uptober 2025: Can Bitcoin Break Past $118K Toward the $130K Mark?

Can Bitcoin once again turn October into a rallying month? Despite a 1.9% daily drop, BTC dominance has risen to 57%, showing investors are moving back into the asset even as the broader crypto market bleeds. With “Uptober” around the corner, many traders wonder if history will repeat and the crypto king will break toward $130,000.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Uptober History: October as Bitcoin’s Strongest Month

October has a special place in Bitcoin’s journey . Traders call it “Uptober” because it often delivers strong gains during this month. In 2020, It surged from $10,500 to $13,800, triggering the bull run of 2021 and it shot past $60,000. In 2022, it showed resilience at $19,000 despite market weakness. Then, in October 2023, the asset rebounded sharply from $27,000 to $35,000, setting up the 2024 rally.

This year, it trades near $112,302 after recently touching $117,900. With its history of October strength, the market is now watching if Uptober 2025 will again act as a launchpad for another bullish wave.

Powell’s Cuts, PCE Data, and Whale Moves Shape Outlook

Macro events are key this week. In September, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cut rates from 425–450 bps to 400–425 bps , easing conditions for risk assets. His upcoming remarks, along with Core PCE inflation data, could decide the next big move.

After $1.7B in leveraged liquidations, QCP Capital noted that crypto markets have stabilized, with funds rotating back into it. Traders are also placing strong bets on 120–125k call options, signaling optimism for an October breakout.

Source: X

On-chain whale moves add drama. As per LookonChain data, Trader 0x960B closed a BTC short with $815.5K profit and flipped long, already holding an unrealized $141,000 gain.

Source: LookonChain

In contrast, whale 0xa523 closed ASTER positions for $435,000 profit but is now shorting BTC with 684.6 BTC ($77.15M) at risk—liquidation looms at $113,922.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Hit $130,000 in Uptober?

Technically, it trades near $112,523, testing the 100-day EMA at $111,848. This level overlaps with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $111,118, forming strong confluence support. Holding above $111K–$112,000 could push it toward $114,113 and $118,378 resistance zones. A breakout above $118K opens the path to $123,810 and possibly $130,000.

Source: TradingView

Indicators also support a rebound. RSI at 43.66 suggests it is oversold yet stabilizing. Analysts like Ali Martinez expect BTC to form a bullish right shoulder before attempting a breakout toward $130,000. Still, if it fails to hold $111K, a correction toward $104,417 cannot be ruled out.

Conclusion

History shows October often revives Bitcoin’s momentum. With Powell’s cuts, Core PCE data, and whale activity all aligning, Uptober 2025 might once again deliver a rally. If it holds its $111K support, a run toward $130,000 remains firmly on the table—proving the upcoming month is still its strongest month.

Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research before any crypto investment.