$517M in Token Unlock in this Week: Projects, Impact, and What’s Next

There is a coming significant liquidity event to the crypto where more than $517 million of Token Unlock in this Week. Overall, according to analytics company Tokenomist.ai, it involves more episodic one-time cliff unlocks to more gradual simultaneous linear unlocks, both of which could have a meaningful price effect on the market.

Tokens with cliff unlocks this week include PARTI, JUP, NIL, MGB, SAHARA, VENOM, ALT, UDS, and SOON; cliff unlocks release tokens in a one batch release after a predetermined vesting period; often result in exceptionally large price swings due to a sudden increase in supply. Tokens with linear unlocks this week include SOL, WLD, TIA, DOGE, TAO, AVAX, ASTER, SUI, DOT, IP, MORPHO, ETHFL, ITO, and NEAR; this type of releases tokens in a simultaneous increment by token and reduces the immediate fx to price, but ultimately creates sustained downward pressure.

Source: X

Understanding Token Unlock Mechanisms

• Cliff Unlocks: Full allocations released in one batch, possible lock price decline if demand is not sufficient to absorb.

• Linear unlocks: Tokens released slowly or periodically over time, therefore reducing fx to price but increasing circulating supply creates downward effects.

Notable Token Unlocks in This Week

Solana (SOL)

The SOL token is planned nearly $104 million through a linear extraction. The daily unlocking reduces the shock of the unlocks, but concerns remain that the large token supply related to the FTX/Alameda estate will pressure selling, even with the varied release of tokens.

Solana (SOL) is currently trading at $222.27, marking a 7.68% decline over the past 24 hours. Its market capitalization stands at $120.74 billion, down 7.63%, with a 24-hour trading volume of $6.49 billion.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Official Trump Coin (TRUMP)

TRUMP, another linear unlocking token, will be adding approximately $5–6 million daily, totaling more than $40 million over the week, or about 1.52% of its total supply. As a meme coin, TRUMP is expected to experience significant volatility due to the immediate reaction of its price to relatively minor changes in supply.

TRUMP is priced at $7.63, experiencing a 9.92% drop in the last 24 hours. The token holds a market cap of approximately $1.52 billion.

Source: CoinMarketCap

ASTER

ASTER was born from the merger of Astherus and APX Finance . Simply put, ASTER operates a multi-chain perpetual and spot exchange. With the unlocking, the project is assumed to observe significant trading with marked price shifts when unlocking occurs.

Astar (ASTR) is trading at $1.45, having registered a significant 22.65% decrease over the past day.

Allocations : Airdrop (53.5%), Ecosystem (30%), Liquidity (4.5%), Team (5%)

Source: CoinMarketCap

VENOM (VENOM)

VENOM is also scheduled for a significant cliff unlock, which means a large chunk of the supply will come into the market at one time. As expected, if the market demand is not matched with the introduction of the supply, significant downward reactions in price may occur, which may inject additional selling pressure.

Allocations: Ecosystem (28%) Community (22%), Validators (10%), Team (7%)

VENOM is one of the few gainers, currently priced at $0.1439, up 3.1% in the last 24 hours. It has a market cap of $142.37 million.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Dogecoin (DOGE)

DOGE will release 96.5 million tokens from its total supply through linear unlocking. While this is a smaller proportion of its total supply, it still weighs significantly for the DOGE active trading community, which has a very significant market cap.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently trading at $0.2399, registering a 10.78% decline over the past 24 hours. Its market capitalization stands at $4.01 billion.

Source: CoinMarketCap

SOON

SOON is set to have a cliff unlock that could result in increased supply of tokens, which may exceed the current demand in the market.

SOON is trading at $0.3437, reflecting a 0.78% dip in the past 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $99.26 million.

Allocations: Community Incentives (8.93%), Ecosystem (22.32%), Airdrops (~15%), Team (8.93%)

Source: CoinMarketCap

Market Implications

Cliff unlocks like VENOM and SOON may produce instantaneous selling pressure, as well as substantial price declines, and create short-term trading opportunities. Conversely, from SOL, TRUMP, ASTER, and DOGE apply more nondiscerning selling pressure. If insiders sell substantial holdings, sentiment could suffer. Traders often front-run these events—short, wait for sentiment to weaken, then buy the dip.

Conclusion

The token unlocks this week represent a significant milestone for traders. Even though linear could alleviate cliff-based sell pressure, the net liquidity is still diluted. ASTER is attracting a lot of interest, DOGE's phenomenon overwhelmed many, but traders are still using dilution as the key driver of their trading strategies at the moment. We will keep tabs on unlock timers, including potential burns, staking, and buyback projects for interesting outlooks.