This article provides an in-depth analysis of the core content and market impact of the Federal Reserve's September FOMC decision. The meeting resulted in an 11:1 vote to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate down to 4.00%–4.25%, signaling a "preventive rate cut" and potential for consecutive rate cuts. From the policy details, the dot plot indicates an expected rate cut of 3 basis points by 2025, with the quarterly economic projections (SEP) showing an upward revision in GDP growth, stable unemployment rates, unchanged balance sheet reduction pace, and alleviated liquidity concerns.

In the market, the cryptocurrency sector displayed a pattern of "altcoins leading, mainstream stable," with stablecoins increasing by $3.657 billion in a week and BTC ETF net inflows of $1.306 billion, although there is resistance at $117,000. The market capitalization of altcoins reached $1.15 trillion, with the sentiment index rising to 52, though caution is advised regarding high-level pullback risks. Future attention should focus on U.S. congressional appropriations, non-farm employment data, and the critical price levels for BTC and ETH ETF funding conditions.

1. In-Depth Analysis of the Federal Reserve's September FOMC Decision: Data, Path, and Market Direction

The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting concluded with an 11:1 vote to cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark rate to the 4.00%–4.25% range. This decision, interpreted by the market as "dovish," reveals key data signals and future paths. Let's analyze it in depth!

1.1 Rate Cut Initiation: Data-Driven "Preventive" Strategy

Voting Results: 11 members voted in favor of a 25 basis point cut, with only Stephen I. Miran, newly nominated by Trump, supporting a 50 basis point cut. This indicates a broad consensus within the Federal Reserve for this moderate rate cut.

Changes in Statement Wording: Notable additions include phrases like "unemployment rate has risen" and "downside risks to the labor market have increased." Although the unemployment rate forecast remains at 4.5% for this year, these phrases reflect the Fed's vigilance regarding potential weakness in the labor market. Powell also clarified that this rate cut is a risk management measure, not a response to an already occurring crisis, aimed at balancing the dual mandate of employment and inflation.

Signals for Consecutive Rate Cuts: The statement removed the wording "more cautious assessment of magnitude and timing," suggesting that the Fed may open a window for consecutive rate cuts rather than a one-time action.

1.2 Dot Plot: A Clearer Outlook for Rate Cuts

• 2025: The dot plot shows a significant downward distribution among committee members. The median forecast indicates a 3 basis point cut within the year (previously 2 basis points), placing the benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Notably, 9 members support a 3 basis point cut, but this does not constitute a majority, as 6 members still favor only a 25 basis point cut, leaving flexibility for future policy adjustments.
• 2026 and 2027: The median indicates an additional 1 basis point cut for each year, bringing rates down to 3.25%–3.50% and 3.00%–3.25%, respectively.

Long-Term Rates: Remaining at 3% suggests that the Fed views inflation expectations and tariff policies as short-term influences, with further room for rate cuts as inflation slows in the long term.

Conclusion: Despite the expanded rate cut in 2025, maintaining a 1 basis point cut in 2026 and 2027 indicates that the Fed still leans towards "preventive rate cuts," seeking a cautious balance between employment and inflation.

1.3 Quarterly Economic Projections (SEP): Optimistic Growth Expectations and Inflation Judgments

GDP Growth Revision: The Fed revised its economic forecasts for 2025 (to 1.6%), 2026 (to 1.8%), and 2027 (to 1.9%). This conveys the Fed's strong confidence in the economy post-rate cut, believing that preventive rate cuts can effectively counteract employment downside risks and support economic growth.

Unemployment Rate Forecast: The unemployment rate remains at 4.5% for 2025, with slight declines expected in the following years (4.4% in 2026, 4.3% in 2027). This further reinforces the Fed's expectation of a "soft landing" for the labor market.

Inflation Forecast: Only the PCE and core PCE inflation for 2026 were slightly revised up to 2.6% (from 2.4%), but the overall inflation trajectory remains largely unchanged. Powell noted that tariffs contribute about 0.3%–0.4% to core PCE, which is lower than expected and transmits more slowly, indicating that the Fed views tariff inflation as a one-time shock that will not have a long-term impact on the rate cut path.

Core Viewpoint: The overall SEP data conveys the Fed's optimistic expectations for future economic growth, labor market stability, and manageable inflation.

1.4 Balance Sheet Reduction and Liquidity: Slow Progress, Alleviated Concerns

Unchanged Balance Sheet Reduction Pace: The Fed continues to reduce its balance sheet at a pace of $5 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in MBS (totaling $40 billion) per month.

Liquidity Status:

ON RRP (Overnight Reverse Repo) has dropped to a very low level of $18.8 billion.

The Treasury General Account (TGA) rebounded to $850 billion after September tax revenues, reaching the quarter-end target.

Bank reserves remain stable at $3.16 trillion.

Future Outlook: With congressional appropriations, TGA funds will shift to inject liquidity into the market, offsetting the decline in ON RRP. This indicates that market liquidity concerns are gradually dissipating. Powell emphasized that the impact of balance sheet reduction on the macroeconomy is minimal, with the goal of reserves reaching "slightly above adequate" levels.

1.5 Market Outlook and Key Focus Points

Rate Cut Path Essentially Locked In: FedWatch data shows that the probabilities of rate cuts in October and December are as high as 87.7% and 80.0%, respectively, making a 3 basis point cut within the year almost certain.

Focus Returns to Economic Fundamentals: The market will shift to examine economic data post-rate cut, such as non-farm employment (which has been below 100,000 for four consecutive months recently) and personal consumption expenditures (with annual growth in service items falling to 1.68%). If the data stabilizes, it may sustain market momentum.

Political Risks Cannot Be Ignored: Congressional Appropriations: Close attention should be paid to the progress of U.S. congressional government appropriations by September 30 to avoid a government shutdown crisis.

Fiscal Expansion: Trump's potential fiscal expansion plans (defense spending, infrastructure investment, corporate tax cuts) will be key factors in whether the Fed's rate cuts can support the economy as expected in the SEP, rising to a long-term average of 1.8%–2%.

2. Market Analysis

2.1 Review of Last Week's Market

Last week, we mentioned that Wednesday and Thursday were characterized by a sluggish upward trend, and by Friday and Saturday, the market transitioned to a small, smooth upward movement. We previously noted that this rise was a rebound from a stagnant decline, and the technical uncertainty of the subsequent rise was relatively strong. Thus, we can see that the technical movements of BTC and ETH were different; BTC remained flat while ETH experienced multiple phases of oscillation and retracement, with ETH falling back to half of its rise, indicating potential technical damage. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's meeting on the morning of the 18th saw the market in a holding pattern, likely waiting for news. After the rate cut on the 18th, the altcoin market showed a clear upward surge, although the relative movements of ETH and BTC were not significant (SOL saw a single-day increase of 6%).

2.2 Changes in Short-Term Market Data Affecting Trends This Week

2.2.1 Stablecoin Fund Flow Situation

This week, the total issuance of stablecoins reached $245.504 billion, with a weekly increase from $936 million to $3.657 billion, showing a significant rebound. The average daily issuance also rose from $134 million to $522 million, representing a 290% week-on-week increase. In conjunction with the overall market, although the sentiment was cautious and risk-averse before the FOMC meeting, leading to some adjustments, after the meeting confirmed the rate cut, the market still experienced further upward movement in the latter half of the week, supported by the continued high issuance of stablecoins.

2.2.2 ETF Fund Flow Situation

This week, Bitcoin ETF inflows totaled $1.30639 billion. Although this represents a decrease of $234.66 million compared to last week's inflow of $1.54104 billion, it remains at a relatively high level compared to August. Additionally, Bitcoin's price has shifted from a continuous decline in August to a sustained rebound in September. Whether this rebound can continue will require monitoring next week's ETF fund inflow levels.

2.2.3 OTC Premiums and Discounts

This week, the OTC premiums and discounts for USDT and USDC showed an overall downward trend. It is evident that before the FOMC meeting, market sentiment was conservative and cautious. Even during the first half of the week, when the market experienced some pullback adjustments, there was still no significant willingness for OTC funds to enter and bottom-fish. Furthermore, after the FOMC meeting, the market's rebound did not trigger FOMO sentiment among OTC funds to chase the rise, indicating a relatively calm and observant attitude overall.

2.2.4 Ethereum ETF Fund Flow Situation

This week, Ethereum ETF fund inflows amounted to $914.72 million, compared to a net outflow of $214.58 million last week. However, this net inflow level is not high compared to August, and it remains lower than Bitcoin's ETF inflow level. Reflecting on Ethereum's price, while there has been a decent rebound, it still appears relatively weak compared to Bitcoin and SOL. Continuous tracking of next week's ETF fund inflow situation is necessary.

2.2.5 Bitcoin MicroStrategy Purchases

This week, MicroStrategy spent $60 million on September 15 to purchase 525 bitcoins at an average price of $114,562. Although the number of purchases is less than the previous two purchases this month, their continued buying behavior still contributes to a certain uplifting effect on market sentiment.

2.3 Changes in Mid-Term Market Data Affecting Trends This Week

2.3.1 Holding Address Proportion and URPD

This week, the proportion of bitcoin held by addresses with balances greater than 100 but less than 1,000 continues to show an upward trend, with a noticeable acceleration this week, indicating that these addresses are in a state of accelerated accumulation. In contrast, the proportion of holdings for addresses with balances greater than 1,000 but less than 10,000, as well as those greater than 10,000 but less than 100,000, is currently in a downward trend, suggesting that these addresses are still in a distribution phase.

From the chip distribution of bitcoin this week, it can be observed that compared to last week, there has been a significant amount of turnover around the price of $117,000. Last week, we mentioned that the large chip peak near $117,000 might exert some pressure on the price. Given the current turnover and bitcoin's price, this pressure is already evident. Therefore, whether bitcoin can further rebound will depend on whether it can successfully break through the densely held area around $117,000.

3. Analysis of the Altcoin Market

Our analysis of the altcoin market will be broken down into four major sections:

3.1 Market Overview

3.1.1 Altcoin Market Capitalization

This Friday, TOTAL2 (the market capitalization of all tokens excluding BTC and ETH) reached $115 billion, a week-on-week increase of 1.76%. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, leading to improved market sentiment, with mainstream coins steadily rising and altcoins gradually increasing as well. Overall, this week was characterized by a sideways trend, primarily due to the market's high expectations for the rate cut, resulting in some preemptive buying.

3.1.2 On-Chain TVL Overview

The total on-chain TVL (blue line) is $163.2 billion, up 2.13% from last week. This week, as prices rose, TVL also increased, while the overall amount of on-chain staking remained relatively unchanged, indicating a relatively optimistic market outlook for the future.

3.1.3 Stablecoin Market Capitalization and Exchange Reserves

The total market capitalization of stablecoins is $272 billion, with a week-on-week increase of 1.68%, continuing to rise.

In terms of fiat-backed stablecoin net inflows, as of Friday, the total net inflow reached $3.16 billion, showing a significant inflow.

This week, stablecoin balances on exchanges accelerated their inflow, showing a positive overall trend.

Altcoin Index: This Friday, the altcoin index was at 73, slightly up from last week, indicating that altcoins performed better compared to mainstream coins like BTC.

Market Sentiment: The sentiment index on Friday was 52, showing an increase from last week, with orderly market rotation and a continued positive profit effect.

Altcoin Overview: The sentiment in the altcoin market remains good, with numerous hotspots emerging. Small-cap tokens like TST and DAM remain active, and on-chain contract trading platforms like AVNT, Drift, and APX (Aster airdrop) are also performing well. Overall, relatively low-positioned tokens have shown some performance, while previously high-performing tokens have seen declines, warranting caution against chasing highs.

Top-Taking Indicators: This week, the altcoin seasonal index still indicates a peak, while other indicators have not shown similar signs. The market continues to exhibit differentiation, with a good overall profit effect, as low-positioned tokens generally rise, but those with significant previous gains are declining.

Altcoin Heat: This week, the heat in the altcoin market shows a noticeable marginal improvement in funding rates for specific individual tokens, indicating that as the overall market stabilizes and rises, altcoins are likely to spread and rotate upward.

3.2 Secondary Market Trend Analysis

3.2.1 Altcoin Strength and Weakness Analysis

BTC Market Share

This Friday, BTC's market share was 56.02%, remaining in a sideways state, with the performance of the altcoin market falling short of expectations.

SOL/BTC, ETH/BTC, BNB/BTC Exchange Rates

This week, BTC experienced a slight upward trend, with marginal improvements in market sentiment. SOL and BNB significantly outperformed BTC, while ETH's performance was average. This week, SOL's treasury, Galaxy Digital, purchased 1.6 billion SOL.

3.2.2 Market Flow

In terms of inflows and outflows by sector, the performance this week showed differentiation, with gains and losses being roughly equal, and no significant expansion of sentiment.

On the institutional side, BTC and ETH ETFs saw inflows this week, but the purchasing strength of ETH's treasury company showed marginal weakness, with only a slight increase this week. SOL saw a significant increase mainly due to Galaxy Digital's purchase of 1.6 billion SOL, with the financing amount fully purchased.

3.3 Primary Market Data Analysis

3.3.1 Status of the Four Major Public Chains

This week, on-chain TVL saw a slight increase, with overall conditions being relatively good, especially for the ETH chain, which showed significant growth.

3.3.2 On-Chain Asset Flow

This week, in terms of on-chain DeFi bridging asset flows, the chain with the highest net inflow was Hyperliquid, while the chain with the highest net outflow was ARB, which is worth monitoring in the future.

This week, USDT had the highest stablecoin issuance, with USDE also showing impressive issuance. The ETH chain continues to maintain good growth momentum, with the most inflow occurring in centralized exchanges this week.

3.3.3 On-Chain User Activity and Speculative Sentiment

In terms of activity, on-chain performance remains average. The heat of the secondary market on exchanges needs new gameplay on-chain to attract user participation. This week, the BNB chain was relatively active due to news of CZ's return.

In terms of speculative sentiment, DEX protocol revenues, active users, and trading volumes showed marginal improvements compared to last week, with an overall stable trend.

3.3.4 On-Chain Prosperity Index

In summary, we weighted the changes in TVL for the four major public chains and the on-chain data situation (with a full score of 100) and defined the intervals as follows:

Extreme Prosperity: 80 points

Upward Line: 60 points

Recession Line: 50 points

Bear Market: 30 points

4. Market Outlook and Key Focus Points

Federal Reserve Policy Tracking: FedWatch data shows that the probabilities of rate cuts in October and December are 87.7% and 80%, respectively, making a 3 basis point cut within the year almost certain. Future attention should be paid to non-farm employment and core PCE data to see if they meet expectations, avoiding the risk of "data falling short of expectations → policy shift."

U.S. Political Risks: Before September 30, attention should be paid to the progress of congressional government appropriations to avoid a government shutdown. Trump's potential plans for "defense spending + infrastructure investment + corporate tax cuts" will impact whether the economy can achieve the SEP's expected long-term growth rate of 1.8%-2%.

Key Nodes in the Crypto Market: BTC needs to break through the $117,000 chip pressure level, while ETH needs to wait for ETF funding to replenish; the altcoin market should be cautious of "seasonal index peak" signals, prioritizing low-positioned assets with ecological support (such as ETH chain contract platforms and SOL ecology).

The above report data is edited and organized by WolfDAO (X: @10xWolfDAO). If you have any questions, please contact us for updates.

Written by: WolfDAO

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