Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), has dropped 5.73% from a weekend high of nearly $4,766, as traders reduced their risk exposure ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday.
This pullback reflects market caution, but the bigger question is whether a potential dovish shift from the Federal Reserve will reignite Ethereum's upward momentum and how far it might extend.
Ether bulls are holding firm around the $4,450 level near the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA, green line), showing resilience. The market currently anticipates a 96.1% probability of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve this week, up from 85.4% a month ago, with expectations for two more rate cuts by the end of the year.
The price consolidation has formed a bullish flag pattern, which is typically a continuation pattern that signals further upward movement. During the formation of this pattern, trading volume has been steadily declining, which is a typical characteristic of a flag maturing.
The chart pattern suggests that if ETH decisively closes above the upper trendline of the flag, the price could rise to $6,750 before October, representing an increase of over 45% from current levels.
Tesseract CEO James Harris and analyst Donald Dean have recently made predictions similar to this ETH price target.
If the 20-day EMA is not held, the price may further test the lower trendline of the triangle (around $4,350) and the 50-day EMA (red line) near the $4,200 area.
However, many analysts believe that these declines are likely to trigger more investors to buy the dip, thereby pushing ETH prices higher.
Chart analyst Ash Crypto stated that a drop below the lower trendline of the flag would not invalidate the upward structure, but could instead drive the price above $5,000 in the coming weeks.
Chart analyst TheBullishTradR holds a similar view, suggesting that Ethereum could still pull back to the "super trend support" range of $4,100-$4,300, followed by a stronger rebound.
Meanwhile, analyst Luca pointed out that ETH has re-entered the golden retracement range (0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels), with the current price closely aligning with this range and the daily bullish support zone.
This chart analyst views it as a classic "breakout → retest setup," where the price breaks through resistance, then retraces to test it as support before continuing to rise. He added:
Related: Tom Lee: Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) could see "massive gains" in the next three months.
Original article: “How High Can Ethereum Price Go After Fed Rate Cut?”
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