Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
1. Market Observation
The U.S. non-farm payroll data released last Friday was disappointing, with only 22,000 new jobs added, far below expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a four-year high, significantly increasing expectations for interest rate cuts. Investors are generally betting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates three times this year, with Standard Chartered Bank revising its forecast after the data release, believing that the rapid slowdown in the labor market opens the door for larger rate cuts, predicting a 50 basis point cut in September. The market is focused on the upcoming annual benchmark revision of non-farm employment data to be released on Tuesday. Institutions like Nomura Securities and Goldman Sachs have warned that previous employment data may have been significantly overestimated due to factors like statistical model distortions, with potential one-time downward revisions of 600,000 to 900,000 jobs, raising concerns about a repeat of last year's unexpected rate cuts by the Fed due to significant data revisions.
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, described the current situation as an "employment recession," pointing out that if healthcare and hospitality are excluded, U.S. job growth this year would be zero, or even a net loss of jobs, a situation that typically only occurs during economic recessions. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen dismissed this, attributing the weakness in the job market to the Fed's failure to cut rates earlier, and predicting a "significant acceleration" in the economy in the fourth quarter driven by the economic policies of the Trump administration. Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs' hedge fund business head Tony Pasquariello reiterated his core macro view: to remain bearish on the dollar while being bullish on "store of value" assets represented by U.S. stocks and gold.
Bitcoin prices continue to hover around $111,000, with market opinions on short-term trends divided: trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that if the price can break through $112,000, it may trigger a new bull market; while traders Cipher X and Crypto Tony warn that if it cannot effectively hold above $113,000, Bitcoin may pull back to $100,000. From a technical analysis perspective, analyst TurboBullCapital points out that Bitcoin is in a range-bound consolidation, with the 50-day moving average (around $115,000) acting as resistance, and key support at $107,000; if this level is lost, it may drop to around the 200-day moving average at $101,000. Analyst ZYN, using Fibonacci retracement analysis, notes that $100,000 is a key 0.382 retracement level, predicting that in the worst-case scenario, Bitcoin may pull back 10%, but then could see a strong rally of 50%, targeting above $150,000. Meanwhile, Breakout founder Mayne views the current pullback as a support test of previous historical highs, emphasizing the importance of holding above $109,000. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades believes the market remains uncertain, estimating that prices may find support in the $103,000 to $105,000 range after sweeping through monthly lows. Crypto analyst CrypNuevo leans towards a contrarian approach, noting that the current bearish sentiment in the market provides a good opportunity for positioning, and based on liquidation heat map analysis, he is watching the liquidation points at $115,000 and $119,500 above, and $106,700 below.
Ethereum's volatility has recently diminished, with prices compressing in the $4,200 to $4,400 range. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades believes this typically signals an impending larger price movement, noting that while the $4,200 support level has been consistently held, weakening rebound strength may lead to its eventual loss. If the price can pull back to the $3,900 range, it would present a good swing long opportunity. However, under current conditions, he is not inclined to take long positions unless there is a strong short-term breakout above $4,500 or a complete pullback occurs. Analyst Axel Bitblaze holds a bullish view, believing that Ethereum is accumulating liquidity within a tightening triangular pattern, and if market sentiment stabilizes, the path for an upward breakout is relatively clear, with a short-term target of $4,400, and if momentum continues, it could further rise to $4,800.
The Solana ecosystem will see an important event on Tuesday, as its first Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) SOL Strategies is set to officially launch on Nasdaq. According to analysis from USELESS's largest holder Unipcs, referencing the historical performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum after launching similar products, this move could drive Solana and its ecosystem to experience a strong rally. Despite the positive independent catalyst, crypto analyst CrypNuevo also warns that the performance of altcoins remains closely tied to overall market sentiment, predicting that if the Bitcoin market weakens, SOL prices may fall back to $182.
2. Key Data (as of September 8, 12:00 HKT)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)
Bitcoin: $111,010 (YTD +18.57%), daily spot trading volume $24.671 billion
Ethereum: $4,303 (YTD +28.74%), daily spot trading volume $16.073 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 50 (Neutral)
Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.165 Gwei
Market Share: BTC 57.16%, ETH 13.5%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, RED, WLFI, ETH, DOGE
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 50.1%/49.9%
Sector performance: AI up 6.98%, Meme up 4.82%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 103,381 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $157 million, including $9.4879 million in BTC, $21.62 million in ETH, and $18.07 million in SOMI.
BTC medium to long-term trend channel: Upper channel line ($112,257.62), lower channel line ($110,034.70)
ETH medium to long-term trend channel: Upper channel line ($4,395.86), lower channel line ($4,308.81)
Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (as of September 5)
Bitcoin ETF: -$160 million
Ethereum ETF: -$447 million, continuing five days of net outflows
4. Today's Outlook
Binance Alpha will launch Black Mirror (MIRROR) on September 8
OKX will delist WBTC, JST, BTT, ERN, GLMR, and MOVR spot trading on September 8
SOL Strategies has been approved to list on Nasdaq on September 9, with the stock code STKE
Binance Alpha and contracts will launch Avantis (AVNT) on September 9
U.S. 2025 Non-Farm Employment Benchmark Change Preliminary Value (10,000): Previous Value -59.8 (September 9, 22:00)
Sonic (S) will unlock approximately 150 million tokens on September 9 at 8:00 AM, accounting for 5.02% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $45.4 million;
Movement (MOVE) will unlock approximately 50 million tokens on September 9 at 8:00 PM, accounting for 1.89% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $5.9 million;
Top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies today: Worldcoin up 24%, HEX up 14.5%, SPX6900 up 11.2%, Dogecoin up 6.8%, Bonk up 6.4%.
5. Hot News
Amber Group withdraws 4.68 million WLD from Binance after three months
Linea: Liquidity incentive program rewards will increase to 160 million LINEA
Galaxy Digital deposits 175,000 SOL into Coinbase, worth $35.65 million
WLFI: 272 wallets have been blacklisted, and freezing is to prevent user losses
Ark Invest increases its holdings of 388,045 shares of Ethereum treasury company BMNR stock
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