Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has once again called for a rate cut, stating that he will support a 25 basis point cut in September, with further cuts expected in the next three to six months. If non-farm payroll data indicates a "significant weakness" in the U.S. economy, he may support a substantial rate cut. In a speech at the Miami Economic Club, Waller mentioned that with core inflation close to 2% and risks in the labor market, the FOMC should lower the policy interest rate. With the release of the core PCE index tonight, economists expect the July PCE inflation year-on-year growth rate to reach 2.9%, the highest level this year, with some economists even predicting a rise to 3%. Additionally, it is worth noting that U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on September 1 due to "Labor Day."

In the AI-related sector, Cambricon's stock price surged over 15% on August 28, closing above Guizhou Moutai's 1446.10 yuan. Although Cambricon's stock price has retreated today, it has risen over 110% since August. On the evening of the 28th, Cambricon issued an urgent announcement stating that there are no new product release plans, and recent online information about the company's new products is misleading and false. Nvidia's second-quarter revenue was $46.7 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $46.2 billion, and the third-quarter revenue guidance of $54 billion also surpassed expectations. Several Wall Street investment banks, including Bank of America Securities, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, and Goldman Sachs, maintained a buy rating on Nvidia, raising the target price to a range of $210-235, believing that investors should ignore short-term uncertainties in the Chinese market and focus on the company's core growth logic. Although Nvidia's stock price rose close to a historical high after the earnings report, just $0.01 away from the peak, it ultimately closed with a decline.

In the Bitcoin market, the current trading price is $111,000, testing the key support range of $107,000 to $108,900. According to Glassnode data, if Bitcoin falls below this range, it may further drop to $93,000 to $95,000. The pressure on short-term holders is increasing, with $113,600 potentially becoming a resistance level for a rebound. Despite the current pullback of about 11.4% in Bitcoin, which is significantly lower than the historical bear market pullbacks of 25% to 75%, there are no widespread signs of panic selling in the overall market. CryptoQuant analyst burakkesmeci pointed out that if Bitcoin's closing price this week can break through the $109,000 to $112,000 range, it is expected to strengthen the upward trend. In the short term, $117,300 is a resistance level, while $92,400 is a support level. Analyst Pentoshi has no clear preference for Bitcoin's trend, believing that if the price does not rise quickly, it may break below last week's low and quickly drop to the $105,000 to $107,000 range. Murphy Market Observation noted that Bitcoin received support after reaching the short-term average cost line of $108,000, and this rebound may belong to a price recovery after hitting the bottom, with a short-term maximum expectation potentially reaching near the previous high, but it is crucial to focus on whether it can break through the key resistance level of $115,000. Bitcoin Vector analysis believes that the current price is attempting to break through $113,000 but is facing resistance at $113,600; breaking this level will strengthen bullish expectations. Additionally, Man of Bitcoin analysis states that for Bitcoin to continue its upward trend, it must stay above $110,985.

Regarding Ethereum, Man of Bitcoin stated that the ETH price has reached the 100% Fibonacci extension level of wave-(2) in wave c, and a small five-wave upward structure needs to be observed to confirm the price low. If the price falls below $4,317, this structure will fail. Another analyst, Jelle, pointed out that the Ethereum weekly chart shows an "expanding trumpet pattern," with a target price of $10,000 and a current key resistance level at $5,000. If this level is broken, it is expected to trigger about $5 billion in short position liquidations, further driving the price up. However, if it fails to break through $5,000, it may retrace to $3,500 or lower support at $3,000. Technical analyst Jackis believes that ETH has broken through a 4.5-year institutional accumulation range, initiating a new structural expansion cycle, with a strong bullish trend expected in the coming years, but it may face volatility and retracement pressure in the short term. Additionally, the price of ETH remains highly correlated with BTC, and attention should be paid to the performance of both. Analysts believe that if ETH can continue to break through the historical high of $4,880 from 2021, it will confirm the continuation of the upward trend.

In market dynamics, analyst Ran Neuner observed that Solana and Bitcoin's price charts show a rare "golden cross" pattern, which historically has driven the SOL/USD price to achieve over 1,000% gains. Currently, the SOL price is about $217.78, with a technical target pointing to the $295 to $300 range. Meanwhile, institutions like Galaxy Digital and Jump Crypto plan to raise over $3 billion for the Solana fund, further enhancing market demand. Additionally, SOL has broken through the 50-week and 200-week exponential moving averages, with technical indicators showing that upward momentum is still continuing. At the same time, Pyth Network announced that it has been selected by the U.S. Department of Commerce for the verification and distribution of on-chain economic data. Following the announcement, the price of Pyth-related tokens doubled within 24 hours, peaking at $0.25, while the closely related Wormhole token W rose by 40%, reaching a high of $0.1053. Recently, the overall on-chain market has been lukewarm, but the Believe ecosystem project has started to warm up, with LAUNCHCOIN rising 53% within 24 hours. It is noteworthy that the pre-market trading prices of $XPL on Hyperliquid and Binance were $1.06 and $0.79, respectively, with the price on Hyperliquid trading at nearly a 30% premium over Binance, possibly due to significant funds going long on Hyperliquid. Among them, the whale "silentraven" manipulated the XPL price on the Hyperliquid platform, profiting $38.77 million, and continued to go long with 1x leverage, with a total position of $31 million.

2. Key Data (as of August 29, 12:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $111,568 (Year-to-date +19.8%), daily spot trading volume $34.188 billion
• Ethereum: $4,485.44 (Year-to-date +34.05%), daily spot trading volume $28.49 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 50 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.22 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 58.18%, ETH 14.19%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: PYTH, CRO, SOL, XRP, TREE
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.17%/50.83%
• Sector performance: PayFi down 2.89%, RWA down 1.67%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 90,871 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $238 million, including $67.398 million in BTC liquidations, $97.2 million in ETH liquidations, and $19.4186 million in SOL liquidations.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: Upper channel line ($114,815.70), lower channel line ($112,542.12)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: Upper channel line ($4,514.96), lower channel line ($4,425.56)

Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of August 28)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$179 million, net inflow for 4 consecutive days
• Ethereum ETF: +$39.1636 million, net inflow for 6 consecutive days

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will launch CeluvPlay (CELB) on August 29, Dexlab (XLAB)
• U.S. stocks will be closed for one day on September 1 due to "Labor Day."
• U.S. July core PCE price index year-on-year: Previous value 2.80%, forecast value 2.90% (August 29, 20:30)
• U.S. August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value: Previous value 58.6, forecast value 58.6 (August 29, 22:30)

Top 100 market cap gainers today: Pyth Network up 93.8%, Conflux up 8.4%, Four up 6.1%, Pump.fun up 6.1%, Ethena up 5.7%.

5. Hot News

• Pyth Network selected by the U.S. Department of Commerce for the verification and distribution of on-chain economic data
• Canadian company Luxxfolio plans to raise $73 million to increase its holdings in Litecoin (LTC)
• Whale "silentraven" currently holds $31 million in long positions for XPL, with an unrealized profit of about $10 million
• Due to the launch of cryptocurrency trading services, Guotai Junan International's stock price rises over 20%
• Frax founder to serve as Chief Technology Officer of the blockchain project Stable
• DeFi Development increases its holdings by approximately 410,000 SOL, with total holdings exceeding 1.83 million SOL
• U.S. government releases latest GDP data for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Tron, Stellar, Avalanche, Arbitrum, and Polygon
• For the week ending August 23, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. is 229,000, expected to be 230,000
• Strive Funds plans to purchase over $700 million in Bitcoin after going public
• Sandbox founder steps down and lays off 50%, shifting focus from metaverse business to Web3 applications and Launchpad plans
• Linea will conduct TGE in September and launch native ETH yield feature in October

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