1. Market Observation

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is leading the search for a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, whose term ends in May next year. The candidate list has expanded to about ten people, including former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and economic advisor Mark Zandi. Trump continues to pressure for interest rate cuts and has narrowed the list to four candidates, favoring those who support rate cuts. However, Bessent emphasized the importance of gaining market trust, having forward-thinking, and maintaining the independence of monetary policy when outlining the "recruitment requirements" for the next chairman. He is concerned that the excessive expansion of the Fed's functions has jeopardized this core principle.

In terms of trade policy, Bessent compared the Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs aimed at "rebalancing" the trade deficit to "melting ice," suggesting that if the trade imbalance improves, tariffs may gradually decrease or even be eliminated. He also revealed that trade negotiations with several Asian countries are expected to be largely completed by the end of October. Additionally, geopolitical issues have become a market focus. CITIC Securities analysts pointed out that if a substantive breakthrough can be achieved in the U.S.-Russia summit regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it may lead to a temporary decline in the geopolitical risk premium for gold and oil, boosting stock market risk appetite and having a profound impact on the supply patterns of energy and metals.

Bitcoin broke through $122,000 this morning, just $900 away from its historical high. Crypto analyst Orbion noted that the current capital is rotating from Bitcoin to Ethereum and then to smaller coins, perfectly mirroring the scenes before the crashes in 2017 and 2021, predicting that Bitcoin may peak at the end of September and then fall back to a low of $55,000 before the end of October. However, analyst Murphy provided a relatively optimistic short-term perspective, pointing out that Bitcoin's price has returned to around $120,000, with the price range supported at $117,000 being reconfirmed. The current price is operating within an upward channel, with the first target price for a short-term rebound being the upper boundary of the channel at $125,000. If it can break through and stabilize, it may further rise to $137,000.

Additionally, Ethereum's year-to-date gains have caught up with Bitcoin. Analyst Axel Bitblaze stated that as the price breaks through $4,200, the market has entered "Ethereum season," although a comprehensive "altcoin season" has yet to arrive. Greeks.Live analyst Adam pointed out that the implied volatility for major Ethereum terms is as high as 65% to 70%, far exceeding Bitcoin, indicating strong market expectations for its future price fluctuations. Regarding the market direction, analyst IncomeSharks advised investors not to blindly chase high prices. If they missed previous low-price buying opportunities, they could wait for prices to fall back to around $4,000, which would be a better entry point. If ETH continues to rise to $4,800, they should wait for a pullback at that level before considering buying. Ash Crypto believes that Ethereum has broken through the key resistance level of $4,100, and the price will quickly push towards the $4,400 to $4,500 range. Lord Hawkins, based on Wyckoff theory analysis, stated that Ethereum's breakthrough at $4,200 has entered the "strong signal" phase, and if support can be confirmed, the price may accelerate upward, targeting $6,000. Crypto Rover and Titan of Crypto pointed out from a broader chart pattern perspective that Ethereum has broken through the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle formed over the years, referencing historical data, which may push the price towards the $8,000 area. Despite significant differences in long-term forecasts, the market is generally bullish in the short term. Analyst Ted Pillows believes that ETH's price has successfully broken through the $4,000 mark, and there is currently almost no significant resistance, suggesting that Ethereum is likely to set a new historical high this week, provided Bitcoin does not experience a significant pullback.

Over the weekend, Ethereum first entered the top 25 global assets, with a market capitalization soaring to $520 billion on the morning of August 10. HashKey Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding pointed out that this marks the deep integration of crypto assets into mainstream finance. From a regulatory perspective, the U.S. SEC's clear exemption for liquid staking has eliminated compliance uncertainties, injecting a revenue mechanism into ETF products, which is expected to attract more institutional funds and promote industry standardization. On the market level, the surge in institutional holdings and the increase in on-chain activity reflect that capital is shifting from traditional assets to the crypto space. As a highly liquid asset, Ethereum is benefiting from global inflation hedging demand, showing significant potential for market capitalization expansion. From the perspective of Web3 ecosystem construction, such favorable policies will accelerate the innovative iteration of DeFi and NFT applications, solidifying Ethereum's position as a core infrastructure and promoting cross-chain interoperability and the integration of real-world assets, potentially reshaping the global digital finance landscape.

Over the weekend, the price of $SOON experienced significant volatility, with $10.9 million in liquidations within 24 hours, second only to Bitcoin and Ethereum, and it briefly topped the Upbit trading volume chart before quickly retreating. Notably, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, after recently selling PEPE and ENA for profit, invested $7.93 million over the weekend to increase his holdings in ETH, LDO, ETHF, and PENDLE, while Vitalik's on-chain assets also surpassed $1 billion as Ethereum broke through $4,300. Additionally, ZORA set a new historical high after a recent pullback, and tokens in the Base ecosystem, such as AERO, VIRTUAL, and ZORA, also saw significant increases.

2. Key Data (as of August 11, 12:00 HKT)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $121,684 (YTD +29.97%), daily spot trading volume $44.274 billion

• Ethereum: $4,334.05 (YTD +29.68%), daily spot trading volume $30.679 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 62 (Greed)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.37 Gwei

• Market Share: BTC 59.9%, ETH 12.8%

• Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, ETH, BTC, PROVE, ENA

• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 49.99%/50.01%

• Sector Performance: DeFi sector up 2.83%; NFT sector up 2.29%

• 24-hour Liquidation Data: A total of 112,015 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $367 million, including $113 million in BTC, $98.16 million in ETH, and $10.9 million in SOON.

• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper boundary (117,570.51 USD), lower boundary (115,242.38 USD)

• ETH Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper boundary (3,930.35 USD), lower boundary (3,852.52 USD)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower boundaries, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (as of August 8)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$403.9 million

• Ethereum ETF: +$461 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha launches SatLayer (SLAY),Xeleb Protocol (XCX)

• Bithumb and other South Korean DAXA members delist ALEX token

• sns.sol will stop the airdrop claim for SNS tokens

• Binance will delist DEFIUSDT and MEMEFI U-based perpetual contracts on August 11

• FTX lawyers claim Three Arrows Capital's $1.5 billion claim is "unreasonable," with a related hearing scheduled for August 12

• The Superp Foundation will unlock and distribute the remaining 3% airdrop in one go, with a claim page expected to go live on August 12

• Solayer (LAYER) will unlock approximately 27.02 million tokens on August 11, accounting for 9.51% of the current circulation, valued at about $17 million

• io.net (IO) will unlock approximately 13.29 million tokens on August 11, accounting for 6.51% of the current circulation, valued at about $8.3 million

• BounceBit (BB) will unlock approximately 42.9 million tokens on August 11, accounting for 6.36% of the current circulation, valued at about $5.4 million

• Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.6 million tokens on August 11, valued at about $52 million

• peaq (PEAQ) will unlock approximately 84.84 million tokens on August 12, accounting for 7.03% of the current circulation, valued at about $5.6 million

• U.S. July Unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year: Previous value 2.70%, expected value 2.80% (August 12, 20:30)

• U.S. July Seasonally Adjusted CPI Month-on-Month: Previous value 0.3%, expected value 0.2% (August 12, 20:30)

Today's top gainers in the top 100 by market capitalization: Lido up 14.8%, Ethena up 10.9%, Cronos up 6.7%, Hyperliquid up 6%, Pump.fun up 5.4%.

5. Hot News

• This Week's Preview | FTX's Next Round of Compensation Registration Date Approaches; Aptos (APT) and Arbitrum (ARB) Will Unlock Tokens Worth Over $40 Million

• Data: APT, ARB, AVAX and Other Tokens Will See Large Unlocks, with APT Unlocking Tokens Worth Approximately $52.1 Million

• This Week's Macroeconomic Outlook: The Ultimate Judgment on the Fed's Rate Cut Expectations in September

• Amber Group Has Withdrawn 358,000 UNI from Binance in the Last Three Days, Currently Holding a Profit of $230,000

• Nansen CEO Transferred 1 Million LDO to Coinbase Half an Hour Ago, Currently Still Holding 1 Million LDO

• 1inch Team's Investment Fund Sold Some ETH and 1INCH, Realizing a Profit of $8.36 Million

• A Whale/Institution Has Increased Its Holdings of ETH by Over $200 Million, Now Holding Over $900 Million in ETH

• LayerZero Foundation Proposes to Acquire Stargate Cross-Chain Bridge and Its Token STG for $110 Million

• Abraxas Capital Is Shorting ETH, BTC, SOL, HYPE, and SUI, Currently Facing a Loss of Over $190 Million

• Huajian Medical Launches "Global Enhanced Ethereum (ETH) Treasury" Strategy

This article is supported by HashKey. HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets in Asia. It aims to set a new benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform protection.

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