Author: Joe Zhou, Foresight News

Today marks the tenth anniversary of Ethereum.

Over the past decade, Ethereum has become the highest returning asset globally, possibly without exception.

In this decade, Nvidia's market value grew 150 times, Bitcoin's market value grew 300 times, while Ethereum's market value grew 3600 times, reaching $450 billion. In just ten years, Ethereum has become one of the top thirty assets by market capitalization worldwide.

Over the past decade, Ethereum has become one of the safest financial systems globally.

During this time, up to a trillion dollars has circulated on Ethereum, with the annual trading volume of stablecoins alone reaching $20 trillion. In addition to stablecoins, Ethereum also hosts decentralized exchanges (with daily trading volumes reaching tens of billions), staking systems (involving billions of dollars), lending protocols (in the billions), derivatives (daily trading volumes in the billions), NFTs, and more. Moreover, the Ethereum mainnet has never experienced a single downtime, outage, or theft incident.

Looking back over the decade, at least three epoch-making products have emerged from the Ethereum ecosystem, just as Apple launched the Mac, iPhone, AirPods, and iPad, with Ethereum being the absolute market leader among them.

Stablecoins have an annual trading volume of $28 trillion, with over 70% of the trading volume occurring on Ethereum; in 2016, the world's first DAO was born on Ethereum, and today over 90% of the largest DAOs by Total Value Locked (TVL) are within the Ethereum ecosystem; during the summer of DeFi in 2020, Ethereum was the sole center, with a market share of 95%-99%; in 2021, NFTs broke into the mainstream for the first time, with Ethereum as the main battleground, accounting for over 90% of the annual trading volume… and tokenization of US stocks, US bonds, RWA, AI Agent memes, etc., have only just begun.

So what about ten years from now? Ethereum is already one of the top thirty assets by market capitalization, surpassing renowned companies like Meta, TSMC, Visa, and Mastercard. Is this its endpoint?

No, this may just be the true starting point.

Just as the Apple Mac broke through 10 million users in 1987, that was not the endpoint, but the beginning of everything.

Now, with approximately only 10 million monthly users, Ethereum has officially begun its next decade.

Ethereum Still Has 100 Times Growth Potential

1. Ethereum's TVL could grow 100 times, yet it would still only account for 2% of the global financial asset scale.

2. If Ethereum's user base grows 100 times, it would only reach 1 billion. Visa and Mastercard both have over 3 billion cards issued.

3. Like the Apple computer in 1987, Ethereum remains a gathering place for niche enthusiasts. In 1987, Mac series computers sold over 10 million units; as a globally shared computer, by 2025, only about 10 million people (with 17 million addresses weekly) will be using Ethereum.

4. Ethereum, a financial system refined over ten years, has already seen trillions of dollars circulating within it. The annual trading volume of stablecoins on Ethereum alone reaches $20 trillion.

5. The miracle of stablecoins is expected to be replicated across various "product lines" on Ethereum.

In 2016, the market value of stablecoins was $1 million, reaching $1 billion in 2018, and $100 billion in 2021. A 1000-fold increase in two years, a 100-fold increase in four years; the miracle of stablecoins (dollar tokenization) could also happen with US bond tokenization and US stock tokenization.

6. Ethereum is providing alternatives for all mainstream financial products. What financial companies can do, it can do; what financial companies cannot do, it can still do.

7. Ethereum is tokenizing almost all mainstream financial products.

Ethereum is working on dollar tokenization (dollar stablecoins), a $40 trillion market, currently achieving a scale of $300 billion; Ethereum is working on US bond tokenization, a $36 trillion market, currently achieving a scale of $7 billion; Ethereum is working on US stock tokenization, a $60 trillion market, which is just getting started, currently achieving a scale of $500 million… all of these could suddenly explode in a few years, growing a hundredfold in a year, just like the explosion of the dollar stablecoin market.

8. As a new global financial system, Ethereum still has at least 100 times the growth potential in financial markets. Ethereum's TVL is only $80 billion, while the global financial system's asset scale reaches $400 trillion. Even if Ethereum grows 100 times, it would still only account for 2% of the global financial asset scale.

9. Ethereum is not a "substitute" for the global financial system; it is redefining what finance is. Just like the relationship between email and postal services. Postal services were once the primary means of communication in the world, but now the daily volume of emails exceeds the annual volume of postal mail.

10. Twenty years ago, no one believed that over 90% of human information would occur on the internet; now, few believe that in the future, only 9% of human funds will circulate on Ethereum.

Ethereum Awaits Every Collapse of the Financial System

1. Every crisis in the global financial system is an opportunity for Ethereum.

2. Ethereum is waiting for every collapse of the mainstream financial system. Such collapses, big and small, happen almost every month, every year, and every cycle.

3. Economic crises, pandemics, wars, political turmoil, national bankruptcies, currency devaluation, geopolitical conflicts… In the 195 countries globally, a major upheaval in any country is a collapse of some part or link of the entire global financial system.

4. Over the past 100 years, there have been at least 10 major financial crises globally; 8 large-scale pandemics with global impact; over 30 national bankruptcy events, with currency collapses and hyperinflation "bankruptcies" occurring at least 10 times. In the past 50 years, approximately 15-20 major wars with international influence have occurred. All of these will bring changes to the financial system and create new market demands for Ethereum.

5. Ethereum is the center of "marginal finance." About 10 countries globally have been kicked out of the mainstream financial system, with as many as 30-50 marginalized countries. Their ordinary citizens need stable currencies, merchants need cross-border trade, and the middle class needs to buy quality stocks.

The mainstream financial system prohibits them, while Ethereum accepts them.

6. Duan Yongping repeatedly emphasizes: do the right thing, and do things right. Ethereum continues to do what centralized institutions like countries, financial institutions, and internet companies cannot do. Doing decentralized things is doing the right thing.

7. Ethereum is delivering a dimensional blow to Swift. Ethereum has become the largest value network globally outside of Swift. Ethereum clearly surpasses Swift in several important dimensions, including but not limited to: network neutrality, 24/7 availability, transaction fees, cross-border transaction speed, transparency, and the degree of automation in asset settlement. As important countries like the United States begin to embrace Ethereum in compliance and regulation, in 30 years, Ethereum has the opportunity to replace Swift as the largest value network globally.

8. Nearly 20 countries are sanctioned and restricted by Swift. Ethereum requires no permission; any country or individual can trade here.

9. Athens and Sparta, Android and Apple, Ethereum and the global financial system… they are two sides of the same coin in this world; missing either is a flaw.

10. The success of Ethereum is highly probable. The mainstream financial system will not suddenly collapse, but it will continuously experience breakdowns. Each breakdown benefits the new financial system, benefits Ethereum, and could be a great opportunity for Ethereum's rapid expansion.

Ethereum's Moat

1. Ethereum's moat: First, it is sufficiently neutral. In the blockchain space, only it and Bitcoin are sufficiently decentralized, not controlled by any single country or organization; second, it is sufficiently secure. The mainnet has operated for ten years, with a market value of $450 billion, without any large-scale downtime, outages, or thefts; third, it has a unique culture. DAO governance, early user airdrop mechanisms, transparent transactions, and a strong emphasis on ZK technology and privacy protection… the Ethereum ecosystem has formed a good culture, and good culture gives birth to good business models.

2. On July 30, 2015, the Ethereum mainnet officially launched. Over the past ten years, the Ethereum mainnet has never experienced a single downtime, outage, or theft.

3. Ethereum is a public good. Air can be polluted, water can be banned, land can be expropriated, roads can be denied access, and internet accounts can be banned… In this world, apart from the sun, moon, and a few other entities that humanity cannot intervene with, there has never been a truly public good that everyone can use equally until the emergence of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

4. Ethereum does not require permission for use. Bitcoin is a currency shared by all humanity, while Ethereum is a supercomputer shared by all humanity. Anyone can deploy, run, verify, and use programs on the Ethereum network without relying on traditional servers or companies.

5. Ethereum is a decentralized financial system, a public good, digital oil, a supercomputer shared by all humanity, an immutable global ledger, the largest value network outside of Swift, a decentralized internet, and a network state.

6. Ethereum is the absolute leader in the crypto world. In 2024, the annual trading volume of stablecoins will reach $28 trillion, with 70% of the trading occurring in the Ethereum ecosystem; in 2021, NFTs broke into the mainstream, with Ethereum as the main battleground, accounting for over 90% of the annual trading volume; during the summer of DeFi in 2020, Ethereum was the only center, with a market share of 95%-99%, with almost all lending, trading, and stablecoin protocols operating on it.

7. Ethereum is the biggest challenger to the global financial system. It provides a financial system that allows for fair and secure trading without regulation. When a country is kicked out of the mainstream financial system, Ethereum is one of the best solutions. When a business or merchant wants to conduct normal cross-border transactions but cannot for various reasons, Ethereum provides a new financial system. When an individual cannot conveniently trade in foreign stock markets or real estate, Ethereum offers a financial system that requires no regulation.

8. Ethereum is the source of innovation in the crypto industry, the center where almost all large-scale blockchain applications are realized. During the summer of DeFi in 2020, Ethereum was the only center, with a market share of 95%-99%, with almost all lending, trading, and stablecoin protocols operating on it; in 2021, NFTs broke into the mainstream, with Ethereum as the main battleground, accounting for over 90% of the annual trading volume; in 2025, stablecoins will break into the mainstream, with global stablecoin annual trading reaching $28 trillion, with over 70% of the trading volume occurring on Ethereum.

9. In competition, the final battle is about time and who makes the fewest mistakes. And Ethereum is always the one that makes the fewest mistakes.

The Ethereum mainnet has operated for ten years without any large-scale shutdowns or outages. Solana launched its mainnet in 2020 and has experienced over 10 large-scale shutdowns in five years, averaging 1-3 times per year, with multiple network restarts; Sui launched its mainnet in 2023 and has experienced two shutdowns in two years.

10. In the AI industry, there cannot be a lack of Nvidia; in the mobile phone industry, there cannot be a lack of Apple; in the crypto industry, there cannot be a lack of Ethereum.

Surpassing BTC is Not Impossible

1. Bitcoin is merely a currency system, while Ethereum is not only a currency system but also a financial system, an internet system, and a supercomputer shared by all of humanity.

2. Those who believe that Ethereum's value surpasses Bitcoin have never disappeared. Entrepreneurs like Mark Cuban (2021), Real Vision CEO Raoul (2023), and 1confirmation founder Nick Tomaino (May 2025) have all publicly and clearly expressed this viewpoint at different times and places.

3. Cathie Wood is considered one of the celebrities most optimistic about Ethereum's future prospects. She believes that by 2032, Ethereum's price could reach $166,000, with a market capitalization of $20 trillion. Currently, Ethereum's market capitalization is $440 billion, which means Cathie Wood believes there is nearly a 50-fold increase potential for Ethereum.

4. Ethereum is as scarce as Bitcoin. Currently, Ethereum's inflation rate is lower than that of major currencies like BTC, gold, the US dollar, and the euro.

In 2024, Ethereum's inflation rate is projected to be -0.2% to 0.5%, while BTC's is 1.7% (which will drop to 0.85% after the 2028 halving, decreasing every four years), gold's is 1.5% (with gold supply growing about 1.5% - 2% annually), the euro's is 2.5%, and the US dollar's is 3.3%.

Some currencies have outrageous inflation rates: the Egyptian pound at 28%, the Iranian rial at 31%, the Turkish lira at 58%, Argentina at 250%, and Zimbabwe at 560%.

5. As Bitcoin's first decade approached, it reached $3,500. In Ethereum's first decade, it reached $3,800.

In Bitcoin's first decade, its market capitalization reached $62 billion; in Ethereum's first decade, its market capitalization reached $460 billion.

6. Ethereum once "nearly flipped" Bitcoin's market capitalization. In mid-2017, Ethereum's market capitalization even reached 80% of Bitcoin's; in mid-May 2021, Ethereum's market capitalization reached 48% of Bitcoin's. Currently, Ethereum only occupies 20% of Bitcoin's market capitalization.

7. Without Bitcoin, the crypto industry still has a reason to exist; without Ethereum, the crypto industry loses its reason to exist.

8. From August 2015 to January 2016, Ethereum's price remained below $0.30. Now, Ethereum is valued at $3,900, an increase of over 13,000 times. During this period, BTC's increase was only a few hundred times.

9. Ethereum has unlocked two price growth engines: one is the US Ethereum spot ETF, and the other is the Ethereum strategic reserve institution. It is expected that this October, Ethereum will also launch a third growth engine—an Ethereum spot ETF supporting staking functions. Once opened, ETH holders participating in staking will receive an additional annual yield of about 3%.

10. In the next decade, when Ethereum becomes as ubiquitous as the internet, the number of Ethereum users will grow 100 times, and the funds on Ethereum (TVL) will also grow 100 times.

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