Author: Haotian

Based on the technical roadmap for Ethereum over the next two years, several potential "technical breakthroughs" that may support prices are shared (exclusive to E Guardian):

1) zkEVM Layer1 Integration

Implementation Timeline: Mainnet deployment to be completed between Q4 2025 and Q2 2026;

Technical Goals:

• 99% of blocks verified within 10 seconds;
• Zero-knowledge proof verification costs reduced by 80%;

Significance of Implementation:

• The market share of stablecoins like USDC and USDT on the Ethereum main chain will further expand, leading to an increase in daily Gas consumption, directly driving ETH deflation;
• zkEVM zero-knowledge proof technology will provide compliance and privacy protection for traditional financial institutions, potentially activating large-scale DeFi application scenarios for institutions;

2) RISC-V Execution New Architecture

Implementation Timeline: Research and development to begin in the second half of 2025, with gradual phased advancement from 2026 to 2030;

Technical Goals:

• Smart contract execution efficiency improved by 3-5 times;
• Gas costs reduced by 50-70%;
• Open-source instruction set architecture to replace the current EVM, better compatible with modern hardware acceleration technologies;

Significance of Implementation:

• The significant improvement in execution performance will give rise to entirely new application scenarios, such as high-frequency trading, real-time gaming, AI inference, micro-payments, and micro-transactions;
• Lower Gas costs will reactivate small transaction scenarios, significantly expanding the user base and usage frequency, creating a positive cycle of ETH demand;

3) Layer1-Layer2 Ecological Synergy

Implementation Timeline: Start in Q4 2025, with continuous optimization from 2026 to 2027;

Technical Goals:

• Achieve seamless interoperability between L1 and major L2s (such as Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, etc.);
• Current decentralized liquidity is approximately $120 billion TVL, with unified liquidity pool TVL expected to exceed $200 billion;
• Cross-layer transaction costs reduced by 90%, achieving cross-layer confirmation within 10 seconds;

Significance of Implementation:

• DeFi protocols will be able to more efficiently aggregate liquidity across the entire ecosystem (L1+L2), generating a network effect of 1+1>2, significantly enhancing the capital efficiency and application experience of the entire Ethereum ecosystem;

4) Validator Economy Optimization

Implementation Timeline: Start in the second half of 2025, with ongoing optimization in conjunction with various technical upgrades, continuing for 2 years;

Technical Goals:

• Minimum staking threshold for validators gradually reduced from 32 ETH to 16 ETH, and eventually down to 1 ETH;
• Annualized staking yield increased from the current 4-6% to 6-8%;
• Simplify the operational threshold for validators, support light node validation, and enhance network decentralization;

Significance of Implementation:

• The reduction in validator thresholds and optimization of yield models are expected to increase the ETH staking rate from the current approximately 25% to over 40% (approximately 48 million ETH locked), further reducing the circulating supply of ETH and strengthening deflationary expectations;
• Increased staking yields will enhance the attractiveness of ETH as a "digital bond," providing fundamental support for its valuation;

5) Return of Sharding Technology (ETH 3.0)

Implementation Timeline: Design and development to begin in 2026, with potential realization in 2027-2028 or later;

Technical Goals:

• Achieve millions of transactions per second by combining zkEVM and sharding;
• Data availability costs reduced by 99%;
• Distribute blockchain data across multiple shards, with validators only needing to process a portion of the data;

Significance of Implementation:

• The reintroduction of sharding indicates that Ethereum is preparing for the large-scale adoption of Web3 in the next decade, and the aspiration of becoming a "world computer" will be elevated back on the agenda;

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