The airdrop selling pressure is limited, and the price fluctuation of $S may show a "first suppression and then rise" trend in the early stages of the airdrop.
Author: Yue Xiaoyu
Recently, I've seen quite a few tweets related to Sonic, indicating that the Sonic ecosystem is still quite active, and naturally, there are many opportunities.
Sonic (formerly known as Fantom), as a well-established Layer 1 public chain project, became a market focus during the last bull market due to its high performance and innovation.
Now, Sonic is making a strong comeback with a brand new identity and technological upgrades, and has launched a very large-scale long-term airdrop plan.
Some friends may be concerned that this large-scale airdrop will affect the price of $S , so let's analyze it briefly:
1. Controllable Selling Pressure: Market Impact is Quantifiable
The 47.625 million $S released in the first quarter airdrop accounts for only 1.5% of the total supply, and Sonic's burning mechanism and fNFT market further weaken the selling pressure.
Fantom (the predecessor of Sonic) has an average daily trading volume of about $250 million. Even if 10% of the trading volume is sold off in the early stages of the airdrop, the average daily selling pressure would be about $25 million, far below the market's absorption capacity.
2. Ecological Explosion: Strong Internal Support
Sonic's TVL has surged from $26 million at the beginning of 2024 to $1 billion (by May 2025), and the entry of top DeFi protocols like Aave, Silo, Euler, and Shadow has solidified Sonic's position as a DeFi hub.
Sonic's FeeM model (returning 90% of network fees to developers) disrupts the traditional Layer-1 revenue distribution, similar to Airbnb's incentive mechanism for hosts. This model attracts a large number of dApp developers.
The ecological explosion will create sustained demand for $S (such as transaction fees, staking, governance), supporting a long-term price increase.
3. Differentiated Competition in the Layer 1 Track
Sonic's SonicVM and sub-second determinism stand out among EVM-compatible chains.
Compared to Solana (non-EVM, steep learning curve for developers) and Arbitrum (slightly lower performance), Sonic finds a balance between performance and compatibility.
Sonic's brand reshaping (from Fantom to Sonic) is not just a name change but a strategic upgrade.
Referring to the market capitalization growth of Polygon's MATIC to POL upgrade by 30%, Sonic's repositioning will trigger a market revaluation.
In Summary
Overall, the airdrop selling pressure is limited, and the price fluctuation of $S may show a "first suppression and then rise" trend in the early stages of the airdrop.
A short-term correction (5-10%) is expected, after which ecological growth and market narratives will drive the price into an upward channel.
The Sonic ecosystem is still quite active, and there are opportunities to take advantage of the airdrop, making it worth long-term attention.
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