Authors: Shiqi & Michael, Inception Capital

Profiting from on-chain transactions always comes down to three steps: discovering new assets, screening tokens with a high probability of appreciation, and trading for profit. Pond is a Web3 + AI product that helps users discover new assets and filter out Alpha.

What is Pond?

The mainstream narrative of AI + Web3 currently revolves around combining AI and Web3, or using LLM to provide better Web3 products. However, the reality is that while LLMs like GPT provide good effects in interaction and content generation, they are still far from being all-powerful AGI.

The core of Pond lies in using industry-native on-chain data and learning and predicting on-chain behavior through technologies such as graph neural networks. This has led to the derivation of many new business logics, such as token price prediction, AI-enhanced MEV, and DeFi strategies.

For example, in February, Pond detected a token called $SYNC with a soaring Alpha Rate, and subsequently, the price of this token increased 20 times in a month. Therefore, when the Alpha Rate of an on-chain project suddenly changes, it may indicate that someone is preparing to collect and push up the tokens.

How does Pond possess such magical abilities?

Currently, Pond is a non-typical AI + Web3 project. Unlike most other projects based on LLM, Pond is based on a large GNN graph neural network to provide real-time statistics and predictions on on-chain data. Compared to LLM, which is better at processing and generating information, GNN-based Pond is better at mining relationships between data and extracting valuable information from them.

Why choose GNN? Unlike large language models such as GPT, GNN is naturally suitable for handling the complex graph-structured data on the blockchain. On-chain data is formed by the complex interactions between accounts and contracts, making wallets and contracts nodes in the network. Training a GNN model based on on-chain data is not simple because on-chain data changes dynamically over time. Additionally, if on-chain transactions are imagined as a graph composed of points and lines, there are various relationships between different points. Through innovative technology, Pond captures the temporal characteristics of transactions and the implicit connections between accounts, significantly enhancing the model's capabilities.

Who is behind Pond?

Pond is backed by a team of top data scientists and machine learning experts. The team members have published over 40 papers in top international journals and conferences such as IEEE, Nature, and ICML, with an average experience of over 10 years in this field.

In addition, Pond's founder, Dylan, previously raised $8 million for his previous project from Galaxy Digital and the founders of several star L1s, and established a Crypto community supported by the Ethereum Foundation. Therefore, the Pond team also has strong community resources in the industry.

Why is Pond worth continuous attention?

Firstly, all interactions between Web 3 users and applications occur on-chain, and the application value of on-chain data is enormous. With the application of machine learning, these enormous values will gradually be displayed to the market in previously unexplored ways, unlocking new business logics. The application of on-chain data is not limited to market prediction. As an early-stage project, Pond has already created various new business logics and collaborated with well-known projects in different fields. For example, Pond not only mines and predicts potential Alpha on-chain but also implements innovative applications around on-chain interactions, such as AI-based DeFi products, monitoring and preventing abnormal on-chain behaviors, and discovering potential marketing opportunities on-chain.

On the other hand, Pond has the potential to bring light to the dark forest of the blockchain, smoothing out information asymmetry in the market and transforming abstract transactions hidden behind anonymous addresses into readable and understandable data and phenomena.

Finally, it may be the next big narrative on the blockchain, the dawn of the prediction market, and Pond is a kind of prediction market. Why is the prediction market possibly the next big narrative?

When Vitalik discussed the possibility of Crypto + AI, he mentioned that for a long time, the prediction market has been the holy grail of cognitive technology. How are the prediction market and AI related, and why is Pond important? Currently, the hottest prediction market on the market is mainly led by Polymarket, a prediction market based on events. In this type of prediction market, it is important to provide enough betting targets that can adapt to different user profiles, data analysis tools to assist in incentivizing users to bet, and sufficient liquidity to reduce the cost of participants in the game. In addition to traditional growth methods, one way to improve these aspects is through AI. An AI with strong analytical capabilities can assist the platform in creating more reasonable betting targets and recommend them to relevant users based on on-chain data. At the same time, combined with on-chain AI agents, AI itself can also participate in the activities of the prediction market as a counterparty, providing more liquidity to the market. The foundation of all this is the prediction of assets and market trends. Previously, experiments using AI to predict asset prices have been seen frequently, using various machine learning technologies and training and predicting based on third-party information sources, such as exchange data. However, there have been few models focused on analyzing, training, and predicting on-chain data, and Pond is such a product.

Whether it is to capture the next Alpha in the market or to study the potential next important narrative on the blockchain, Pond is worth experiencing and researching. Currently, Pond is conducting early ecological incentive programs and user invitation programs. Developers can fill out the form to join Pond's ecosystem, gain early access to the model, and receive exclusive rewards. Users can also join Pond's invitation program to receive point incentives.

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