After the ETF of the beautiful country's big cake was approved, the first capital intervention also took place on the evening of January 11th Beijing time. As expected, the market gave these new entrants a "warning" after the price surged and then fell back.

In the large-scale bearish segment (which has been in the bearish segment for many days), a simple and rude rule of thumb is to reduce positions on rallies. This "rule" often backfires (bearish segments often turn into non-bearish segments in a bull market), but considering the current position and structure, it is indeed necessary to reduce positions in this final bearish segment.

4-hour timeframe:

Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, the big cake has now turned bearish. Compared to the strong trend of Ethereum, the probability of a secondary sell-off appearing after the 4-hour timeframe is higher.

Let's compare it with Ethereum:

We know that the rhythm and pace of the big cake and Ethereum generally rise and fall together. When Ethereum is most likely to reach a new high, it is the situation where the big cake's 4-hour secondary sell-off appears.

So whether it's the big cake or Ethereum, there is no rush to go short. Patience is needed to wait for the big cake's 4-hour secondary sell-off and Ethereum's selling point for the new high bearish divergence.

At the same time, the altcoin market has also shown a clear differentiation. Ethereum-based altcoins (arb, avae, op, etc.) still maintain their strength, while other altcoins are currently relatively weak, and the main funds do not have the motivation to continue to push the market. The strategy for weak altcoins is to go short at high levels.

Simple terminology explanation:

Timeframe: A unique concept in the Chan theory, representing the market in two dimensions of time and space. The larger the timeframe, the longer the time and the greater the fluctuation space, generally 4-hour timeframe, 1-hour timeframe, 30-minute timeframe, etc.

Trend type: Divided into consolidation and trend, with rising and falling trends; each timeframe has corresponding trend types.

Segment: The trend type of the sub-timeframe constitutes a "segment of a certain level," specifically referring to a segment.

Bearish divergence: Refers to the end of a rise or fall, where the price reaches a new high/low, but the momentum clearly weakens. Usually judged with the help of MACD.

The views in the article are for learning and reference only and do not constitute investment advice.

If you want to operate together, seize the opportunity of the big cake and high-quality altcoins in the bull market, you can add my WeChat (vhenrythu) for consultation and exchange of learning!

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