Bitcoin has reached a deep bear-market valuation zone. The hard part may come next.

Two widely watched gauges show capitulation, but the analyst flagging them warns the slow grind comes next. What to know : Bitcoin is trading near its historically depressed 200-week average, a level typically seen late in bear markets, even after the hottest U.S. inflation reading in three years. Market sentiment is deeply negative, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 9 and major cryptocurrencies posting only shallow bounces that have not erased this week’s losses amid record ETF outflows. Hot headline inflation, fading odds of U.S. regulatory clarity and rising global interest rates, alongside geopolitical tensions and falling equities, are weighing on prospects for a swift Bitcoin recovery ahead of the June FOMC meeting.