Seasonal trends favor bulls even as bitcoin ends April in a defensive mood

Your day-ahead look for April 30, 2026 What to know : Bitcoin is consolidating below recent highs, but historical seasonality, bullish ETF inflows and supportive equity markets point to a potential upside bias in May. Still, rising bond yields, especially the U.S. 30-year hitting 5%, and geopolitical risks tied to the Iran conflict and energy prices pose significant macro headwinds for bitcoin and other risk assets. A looming bullish crossover of bitcoin’s 50-day and 100-day moving averages signals strengthening momentum, though past instances show such patterns can fail in weaker market environments.