The Green Beret was just the start: New data suggests a broader insider trading crisis on Polymarket

New data shows unusually high win rates in defense bets, building on research that 3% of traders drive prices and under 1% capture most profits. What to know : Longshot bets win 51.8% of the time in Polymarket's military and defense markets, against a 14% baseline across political markets, a new study from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective has found. The findings suggest these markets are more vulnerable to information asymmetry, where a small group of traders may be operating with access to non-public or specialized knowledge. The report builds on recent research showing about 3% of traders drive prices and under 1% capture most profits, raising broader questions about who really has the edge in prediction markets.