陈桂林
陈桂林|Oct 21, 2026 01:15
Thoughts on trends and consolidation: Once a trend is formed, it’s hard to change. In a trending market, factors like macro policies, geopolitical conflicts, earnings reports (whether positive or negative) are just noise within the trend. They might cause fluctuations but won’t fundamentally alter the trend. Let me use hardware as an example: Since the “Flash” combo peaked at the end of June and entered a consolidation phase (we can also understand a major consolidation phase as a type of trend—the opposite of an uptrend), there’s been a steady stream of positive news. For instance, Flash announced that they plan to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders in the long term, which did indeed stimulate the stock price at the time. But! That didn’t stop them from re-entering a correction phase after the rebound. Similarly, $BTC has seemingly entered an upward trend since August. Despite headwinds from macro policies, geopolitical tensions, the stalling of the “Clear Act,” and the decline of the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin has still managed to hold above $80,000. This is the power of trends. Now, back to the quote about SPCX—I believe it’s still in a correction phase. A stellar earnings report or Elon Musk hyping up the 2027 fiscal guidance won’t fundamentally shift it from correction mode into an upward trend. A great earnings report might cause short-term volatility (either a drop or a rebound), but forming a trend requires sufficient consensus and the collective force of capital. KOL talking points: Similarly, trends have different levels. For example, I think gold is currently just in a pullback within the larger uptrend between $2,000 and $10,000. It’s in a continuation phase of this major trend, but if you look at it on a monthly scale, it’s already entered a bear market. Or take the “Flash” combo as another example—I’ve repeatedly emphasized that I believe hardware represented by the Flash combo is currently in a situation similar to NVIDIA during the tariff war. Once the correction ends, it will still break past previous highs, but that doesn’t mean it won’t experience gut-wrenching drops over the next few months. Similarly, for SPCX, I believe it will eventually become the largest market cap stock in the U.S. (especially if it merges with Tesla). But before it gets there, it will need to go through sufficient turnover and spend time building enough consensus.
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