星球日报|Oct 09, 2026 04:35
**[Polymarket: Probability of "Gemini 4.0 Will Be Released Before October 9" Drops to 3%, Down 47% in 24 Hours]**
PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of "Gemini 4.0 will be released before October 9" on Polymarket has dropped to 3%, a 47% decrease in the past 24 hours.
If Google officially releases Gemini 4.0 before the deadline and makes it publicly accessible, including through a public beta version or an open registration rolling waitlist, the market will settle as "Yes." Otherwise, it will settle as "No." Gemini 4.0 must be explicitly released under this name or officially recognized as the next-generation model of Gemini 3. Versions such as Gemini 3.0 Flash or Gemini 2.5 do not qualify. Closed testing, private access, or models not publicly available will not be counted.
If Google's official website explicitly labels a qualifying version and it is indeed accessible to the public, it will also be considered an official announcement. Settlement will primarily rely on official information from Google, supplemented by consensus from credible media reports.
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