This week, the Fed takes center stage. August CPI held at 3.4% YoY, with prices rising 0.4% MoM. Core inflation came in at 2.4% YoY and 0.3% MoM, reinforcing expectations for tighter policy. Markets are now pricing roughly a 90% probability of a 25 bp Fed hike on Wednesday, which would take the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. Wednesday also brings US retail sales, updated FOMC economic projections and Chair Warsh’s press conference. Thursday, attention shifts to the Bank of England rate decision and US housing data. With a hike now firmly in focus, the bigger question for markets is what the Fed signals comes next.