Let’s talk about the U.S. ‘Clear Act.’ The Republicans released a new draft, claiming it ‘resolved 80% of the disagreements,’ and Polymarket’s probability jumped from 14% to 28%. But looking at the actual changes, that ‘80%’ is definitely an exaggeration— it’s more like 60% of the disagreements were addressed, and even then, key provisions being ‘half-resolved’ = not resolved at all. Take the ethics clause, for example: Previously, Trump only agreed to restrictions on officials. The Democrats demanded restrictions on officials + spouses + children + related entities. Now, the new draft compromises to officials + spouses, but excludes children + related entities. Does that kind of compromise even matter? Especially when Biden’s son just launched a coin : ) Or the prosecution clause: The Republicans previously only allowed the DOJ to prosecute violations of the act. The Democrats said no way— the DOJ is your own people, and demanded that state attorneys general also be allowed to prosecute. Now, the new draft compromises to let state attorneys general prosecute, but only for listing non-compliant tokens on exchanges. They can’t prosecute the DOJ for failing to enforce ethics, nor can they prosecute the president himself. Does that kind of compromise even matter? So don’t fall for the ‘resolved 80% of disagreements’ spin. The Democrats are obviously not satisfied, and with midterms coming up, there’s no reason for them to hand Trump this kind of gift. If the Republicans fully caved to the Democrats’ demands, then maybe the Democrats would begrudgingly pass it— ‘since they’ve already bent over this far.’ But with this kind of fake compromise, I don’t see any chance of the procedural vote passing at 2:15am Beijing time on September 16. And the failure of the ‘Clear Act’ vote could very well mark the start of a pullback in BTC’s current rally : )