Probability of 'Federal Reserve Raising Rates by 25 Basis Points in September' Drops to 49% on Polymarket, Down 10% in 24 Hours

Monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool shows that the probability of 'Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in September' on Polymarket has dropped to 49%, down 10% in the past 24 hours. The recently released U.S. August ADP employment report, often referred to as the 'mini non-farm payroll,' came in below expectations, with only 38,000 jobs added—the smallest increase since January. Market attention has now shifted to the August non-farm payroll report set to be released on September 4, which will be the last comprehensive employment report before the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 policy meeting. Analysts believe that strong data could further boost rate hike bets, while overly weak data might trigger recession trades. A 'moderate cooling' scenario in between these extremes could provide a relatively favorable setup for risk assets. Join the PPP signal push community to stay ahead and seize the advantage.