Can Authropic's ARR still exceed $100 billion by the end of the year? In the past few days, it has been revealed that Authropic's ARR is lower than third-party expectations, causing a lot of panic among many people. Let's talk in detail: 1. First, let's take a look at the actual quarterly revenue The preliminary revenue for the latest completed quarter (Q2 2026) exceeded 11.5 billion US dollars (approximately 787 million US dollars compared to the same period in 2025, an increase of about 14 times); Q1 is approximately 4.73 billion US dollars. The adjusted operating profit for this quarter has been positive. The actual revenue quarter on quarter was 144%, and the quarter on quarter growth rate in the third and fourth quarters decreased to half of the quarter on quarter growth rate in the second quarter. In the 26th year, the actual revenue of Authenticic basically exceeded 50 billion US dollars, and even reached 60 billion US dollars. 2. Take another look at ARR Anthropic's latest ARR is approximately $65 billion (as of the end of July). All ARRs before this year By the end of 2025: approximately 9 billion US dollars February 2026: Approximately $14 billion March: Approximately $19 billion April: Approximately $30 billion May: 47 billion US dollars At the end of July: 65 billion US dollars Using recent trends to calculate the benchmark for the next five months: The total increase from May to July was about+38%, with an average month on month (compound) increase of about+17.6%, and an absolute monthly increase of about+9 billion US dollars. (From February to May in the first half of the year, the month on month ratio was as high as 35% -58%, but it has significantly slowed down recently) There are about 5 months left from the end of July to the end of December. Several simple trend calculations 1) Continuing to maintain a recent month on month growth rate of approximately 17.6% (without further deceleration), ARR is expected to reach $146 billion by the end of December; 2) Moderately slowing down to a month on month ratio of 12% -15% (more in line with the normal trend after the base increases) At the end of December, ARR fell between $115 billion and $131 billion; 3) More conservative (month on month decrease to 10%) - ARR hits approximately $105 billion by the end of the year Based on these extrapolations, the neutral scenario is estimated to be around $110-130 billion. Overall, even though the month on month pace has slowed down recently, the default market scenario is for ARR to exceed $100 billion by the end of the year. So the bottom line is that Auhropic's business volume will reach ARR's scale of $110 billion and actual revenue of $50-60 billion. Compared to the end of the 25th, ARR was only over 7 billion US dollars. 3. What is more important is what we use to measure the commercialization of AI. This is actually crucial. In the tweet from early July, when we talked about AI commercialization, everyone only focused on Authropic and OpenAI's ARR, but the performance of CSP cloud vendors may be the most comprehensive indicator for measuring AI commercialization. The core is that enterprise AI adopts the stage of "segmented scenarios and multiple models", and many enterprises will switch some business scenarios to open source models. The value of this part will be deposited in cloud vendors rather than cutting-edge large models. Closed source frontier models continue to follow the high-end premium route: Open source models, self-developed models, and CSP hosting will become the main force in mid to low end and high-frequency scenarios. After enterprise AI enters the production environment, most of the cloud consumption ultimately goes to CSP. It can be seen that many people still haven't turned the corner, only focusing on cutting-edge closed source big models and slightly ignoring the cloud business of CSP The overall cost of tokens has decreased, and there is increasing usage by both enterprises and individuals, which also benefits the development of the application layer. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'