degentrading
degentrading|2026年08月12日 06:04
Pre Market Thoughts - 12 Aug 26 Repeat after me - NEOCLOUD SUMMER. With that out of the way, a quick recap on Asia thus far - we have KOSPI up 4% and NKY also in the green by about 0.7%. Memory stocks are holding gains after news of Temasek investing into $0660 and $5930 - This is what i meant by patient capital from yesterday's note. The buyer pool for memory stocks have changed. Thus do NOT expect the same price action as before. Memory bears will be proven wrong but the last crop of memory bulls will also be chopped out by the price action CRWV earnings were REALLY REALLY good. As i noted in the telegram chat (you should join here - or let me know if hosting chats on the terminal makes more sense) , CRWV has historically always sold off after earnings but i felt that this time would be different. And indeed, CRWV has delivered, with a new revenue high of 2.6B and even more backlog. Adjusted EBITDA margins of 59% - what is particularly important is that ... CRWV has extended its A100 lease by another 3 years. This effectively brings the useful life of A100s to 9 years...Remember what i said about actual depreciation schedule being closer to 10 years than the 5 that people are using? I am being proven right. Shame on the bears who have done no DD. In fact, on http://terminal.gambit.zone - you can see ALL the lease rates for the various GPUs - this is entirely free. Draw your own conclusions. With CRWV expanding into managed inference, this is the bull case of open source helping the neoclouds. Expect neos to MASSIVELY rerate. I have been beating the drum on neoclouds to lead the next rally for the last few months. Now we are seeing the inflection point. Next up, we have NBIS earnings. Just a reminder, NBIS has 30% of short interest going into the ER. On $100HK and ORCL after bidding those at 200 HKD and $120s respectively, i have taken out some PnL and bidded $9880 HK and XPEV. This is as going into the Unitree IPO, i foresee a move towards robotics. While US tickers like CCXI and BOT have started to move, these chinese tickers have not. They are also likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of a rerating in Chinese robotics equity valuations. XPEV in my mind is also quite a derisked bet with hefty cash on its balance sheet and essentially its entire robotics stack being valued at zero at current prices. On the calendar today, we have CBRS earnings AMC and CPI in US morning. Good luck!(degentrading)
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