水博乱乱|Aug 03, 2026 16:00
Posting one more update before bed...
Today's low-long range held up, but there wasn’t much volume, and it didn’t dip into the order block. Just caught a small move.
The spike after the U.S. market opened had some volume and decent momentum, but the reversal wasn’t very clean. It didn’t quite reach the real order block below 65k, so I shorted half a position to see if it can drop back to today’s VWAP (currently above 63k). (Pic 1)
Looking at OI, this move has already wiped out the shorts from earlier today. Intraday OI has reset, so there’s no immediate fuel to push higher for now. (Pic 2)
But zooming out a bit, OI is still relatively high...
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Mid-term view:
Historically, August tends to be weaker.
This is because many institutions are on vacation, so trading activity is relatively low.
On top of that, the recent BTC coldcard theft incident has shaken some long-term holders (over the past two days, long-term holders have been moving coins like crazy, but not to exchanges), causing a spike in turnover near 63k.
Add to that the recent AI rebound in U.S. stocks, which has pulled funds back from BTC into AI...
That said, there’s still demand below, so for now, it’s mainly controlled, gradual downward movement to absorb demand.
The real low-long opportunity in August is still around the major demand zone at 60~61k.
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